Brent crude oil may hit $80 per barrel: Indian refiners may struggle - how will unavailability of Russian oil impact prices?
The forecast came after US President Donald Trump issued a deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine, threatening additional sanctions and secondary tariffs of up to 100% on countries trading with Moscow.
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NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities & CRM at Ventura, said Brent Oil (Oct '25) has already moved up from $72.07 and may hit a short-term target of $76. "Year-end 2025 could see Brent at $80–82, with downside support and cap at $69," he added, reported ANI.
Energy analyst Narendra Taneja said sharper price surge if Russian oil is removed from the global supply chain. Russia exports 5 million barrels of oil into the global supply system every day.
Crude oil prices would rise significantly $100 to $120 per barrel, if the Russian oil is forced out of the global supply chains'.
He added that while Indian refiners, which import crude from 40 different countries, may not face supply shortages, they would struggle to balance prices for consumers if Russian oil is no longer accessible.
WTI Crude Oil (Sep '25), prices are currently around $69.65, with a short-term target of $73 and a year-end projection of $76–79.
Downside support is pegged at $65.
The potential for supply disruption comes at a time when global spare production capacity is limited. Experts say even if Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members increase output to bridge the gap, it will take time and may not be enough to avert short-term deficits.
'President Trump wants lower oil prices, but a quick increase in US oil production is not possible. It requires infrastructure, labour, and investment,' according to market analysts.
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Recent US-EU trade agreement has offered some support to oil markets, as has the extension of the US-China trade truce. However, continued volatility in geopolitical relations and uncertainty around US inventory levels and upcoming interest rate decisions are expected to keep oil prices on edge.
Analysts noted that a stronger US dollar has kept some lid on oil prices, but the broader trend remains tilted upward due to geopolitical uncertainties and potential supply shocks.
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