If Tories aren't careful, old yellow dog could learn new NDP tricks in rural byelection
If the stars align just so, they might end up calling this the 'Miracle of Spruce Woods.'
Speculation has run rampant that Premier Wab Kinew has delayed calling a byelection in Spruce Woods to give the NDP a chance to steal a seat from the Progressive Conservatives.
At first blush, it seems like an enormous long shot. Spruce Woods — vacated in March when MLA Grant Jackson resigned to run for the federal Conservatives in April's election — is located squarely in the heart of what PC supporters lovingly refer to as 'yellow dog' country.
The term was reportedly first coined in the 1960s by a Tory who claimed the party could run a yellow dog in most western and southern Manitoba rural ridings and win. So entrenched are the PCs in some of these ridings that the NDP and Liberals rarely put up much of a fight.
The Tories may still win the byelection — which, by law, must be held no later than Sept. 16 — but they will have to do it in the face of a stiffer-than-usual challenge from the governing NDP.
Kinew's party is already feeling pretty unbeatable following the historic June 2024 byelection win in Tuxedo, the seat abandoned by former premier Heather Stefanson after after she led the PCs to a resounding defeat at the ballot box in October 2023.
Now, NDP sources confirmed that Kinew and his strategists believe Spruce Woods could also be winnable, largely because of a series of forces and events that could conspire to weaken the PC brand.
First off, there is the riding itself.
The current version of Spruce Woods was formed out of parts of Minnedosa, Turtle Mountain and Arthur Virden — all yellow-dog ridings. But in a 2018 electoral boundaries redistribution, it also picked up polls from Brandon, which is more fertile ground for New Democrats.
Then, there is the rising tide of far-right populism that has saturated some parts of southern and western Manitoba.
The PCs were so concerned about the growing support for libertarian independents and fringe parties that they ventured way out on the far right of their policy spectrum in the 2023 general election.
The Tories pinned their dim re-election hopes on pledges to stand firm against any search of the Prairie Green landfill to find the remains of Indigenous victims of a serial killer, and the vague pledge to support the mantra of 'parental rights' that was embraced by anti-LGBTTQ+ activists.
While those policies could not stop the NDP in its march to a majority, some Tory strategists believe they helped retain seats in yellow-dog country.
PC Leader Obby Khan has disowned both campaign planks, and while that may be good for the party's future fortunes in Winnipeg, it could have the opposite effect outside the Perimeter Highway.
There are also issues to consider around the rather-ambiguous process that resulted in Khan's leadership victory.
Under a new system that awarded points to a candidate based on the number of party members who actually voted in the leadership race, he prevailed over populist Wally Daudrich, who won the raw vote by 53 votes.
The results suggested Daudrich had tapped into the far-right sensibilities of voters, some traditional PC voters and others who are farther right than the Manitoba Tories have been willing to go. Will Daudrich supporters show up to vote for a candidate running for a party led by Khan, the leader who many rural residents believe won on a technicality?
Maybe, but maybe not.
The business of byelections is much different than general elections. Campaigns get significantly less media attention and far fewer people show up to vote; in most byelections, total turnout is half or less than it would be in a general election.
That means an upstart party, particularly one that is motivated and has the cash to conduct a blitz of the riding, needs fewer gross votes to win.
Finally, there are questions surrounding the Tories' capacity to campaign in Spruce Woods.
They are currently cash-poor, having spent heavily on a failed election effort. Parties that lose elections typically find it hard to raise money, and Manitoba's PCs are no different.
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It does not help that Khan has kept a decidedly low profile since the legislature rose for the summer. Party sources confirmed he has been immersed in pressing internal PC business and unable to get out to press the flesh with Manitobans.
Khan is dealing with the need to hire a new party CEO, the impending sale of longtime PC Winnipeg headquarters at 23 Kennedy St. and finding a new generation of senior staff to support him in the months and years ahead.
The Tories are understandably frustrated that Kinew has not yet called the byelection. However, the PCs need to move quickly to unknot their knickers so that they can get down to the business of bringing their 'A' game to Spruce Woods.
Under current conditions, if they pause — even for a moment — to take voters in this riding for granted, this yellow dog could find a new owner.
dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca
Dan LettColumnist
Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986. Read more about Dan.
Dan's columns are built on facts and reactions, but offer his personal views through arguments and analysis. The Free Press' editing team reviews Dan's columns before they are posted online or published in print — part of the our tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press's history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.
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