Apartment rents drop in July as vacancies move to multi-year high

CNBC

3 days ago

The massive surge of new apartment supply in the last few years is still being absorbed, and that has vacancies rising and rents weakening.
The national multifamily vacancy rate rose to 7.1% in July, setting a new record on Apartment List's monthly index, which goes back to 2017. The report notes that while the market has passed the peak of this latest construction boom, it is still overbuilt relative to demand.
Landlords are not quite as overstocked as they were at the start of this year, but it is still more of a renter's market. Last year more than 600,000 new multifamily units hit the market, representing a 65% increase compared to 2022 and the most new supply in a single year since 1986, Apartment List found.
For July, it took an average of 28 days to lease units after they were listed, according to the report, slightly longer than in June but down from the recent high of 37 days seen in January.
Rents nationally were unchanged in July compared with June; the median rent was $1,402, according to Apartment List. Rents peaked earlier this year, and rent growth has now stalled during the peak moving season when growth is usually fastest.
Rents this month were down 0.8% from the same month last year, according to the report. They had been approaching positive annual growth early this year but have now been negative for three straight months, according to Apartment List data.
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"All of our key indicators are pointing toward ongoing sluggishness in the multifamily rental market – rent growth is slipping and the vacancy rate is at an all-time high," the report said. "A return to tighter market conditions should still be on the horizon, but the outlook has been complicated by macroeconomic whiplash being caused by tariffs and other policies being pursued by the Trump administration. That uncertainty appears to have modestly dampened demand during this moving season."
Regionally, rents were up in July from June in 37 of the nation's 54 metropolitan areas with a population of more than 1 million, Apartment List found. Less than half of these cities, however, are seeing positive rent growth compared with a year ago. Rent declines are most prevalent in the formerly very hot South and in the Mountain West, according to the report.
Austin, Texas, wins the dubious award of being the nation's softest rental market, with rents there down 6.8% compared with July of last year. Denver and Phoenix weren't far behind.
On the flip side, San Francisco is seeing the biggest gains, with rents up 4.6% from last year. Other strong markets include Fresno, California, and Chicago.
"Although the supply wave is receding, the number of units that hit the market in the first half of this year was still above the long-run average. With construction expected to slow further in the second half of this year and into 2026, conditions are likely to shift," according to the report.