Tatsuro Taira vs. HyungSung Park prediction, pick: Will new star emerge at UFC on ESPN 71?

USA Today

19 hours ago

Can unbeaten Park pull off flyweight upset in short-notice headliner?
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC on ESPN 71 main event between former middleweight champion Tatsuro Taira and HyunSung Park.
Tatsuro Taira UFC on ESPN 71 preview
Staple info:
Supplemental info:
HyunSung Park UFC on ESPN 71 preview
Staple info:
Supplemental info:
Tatsuro Taira vs. HyunSung Park point of interest: Flyweight fisticuffs
The main event on ESPN features an impromptu flyweight fight between Tatsuro Taira and HungSung Park.
Park was initially slated to face Steve Erceg in the same arena the following week, but with Amir Albazi being forced to withdraw from this weekend's main event just one week out, the UFC – as they often do to fill their relentless schedule – was forced to pivot with this last-minute schuffle.
It's unfortunate that the first event headlined by Asians in the UFC happened accidentally, but this should be a solid matchup, all things considered.
Taira, who was originally scheduled for this Saturday, has steadily been improving his striking game.
Fighting to his frame and stylistic sensibilities, Taira will typically look to play all the way in or all the way out when it comes to his operating range. At distance, Taira looks to set up long straight shots off his in-and-out movement. When feeling in stride, Taira will attach solid kicks to his combinations (particularly off of his lead side).
Taira has also demonstrated a solid ability to strike into collar ties, which provides him opportunities to land knees and elbows in close. That said, the Japanese fighter will need to respect the power of Park.
A decent-sized flyweight who fights from a more compact boxing stance, Park displays a solid striking acumen when standing.
Whether Park's utilizing his underrated low kicks or is launching a steady dose of jabs, the Korean fighter seems very comfortable in the pocket. And when feeling in stride, Park is good about catching shots with his parries and returning in combination.
When Park can punch his way into collar tie situations, "Peace of Mind" is quick to feed knees and uppercuts into the equation, typically to the midsection.
Park's propensity for bodywork should serve him well against Taira, but it's the wrestling that'll likely be the crux of this fight.
Tatsuro Taira vs. HyunSung Park point of interest: Winning the wrestling
Considering both the stylistic dynamic and the fighting terrain, winning the wrestling will arguably be paramount for both parties this weekend.
A talented back-taker who is steadily rounding out his surrounding skill set, Taira appears to have no illusions as to where his bread is buttered. Not only is Taira patient when it comes to setting up his shots, but the Japanese fighter does not seem easily discouraged when failing on his first attempt.
Akin to great MMA grapplers like Khabib Nurmagomedov, Taira looks to be perfectly content with using his first shot to drive his opposition toward the octagon walls. From there, Taira will chain to and from single-legs to trip takedowns that allow him to drag the fight into his world.
However, I'll be curious to see how Taira's takedowns stack up with Park's wrestling.
Despite not coming from a traditional wrestling base and having a more limited sample size than his counterpart, I've been very impressed by what I've seen from Park, thus far.
Defensively, Park's head appears to be in the right place regarding his responses. From underhooks and hand fighting to the awareness of his hips, Park appears to be very well-trained.
Offensively, Park – akin to a lot of Korean fighters – prefers to fish for his takedowns from the clinch. The 29-year-old looks incredibly strong in closed quarters and shucks by to the back like it's second nature.
Usually utilizing energy-efficient takedowns, Park is good about immediately transitioning to mount positions by executing incredibly tight chair sits. And once Park has the back on his opponent, he shows little fat in his finishing process as far as his submission game goes.
Park also seems to be very conservative when it comes to giving back exposure, but those sensibilities will be tested to another level this Saturday.
Taira may still be developing large parts of his game, but the 25-year-old's back-taking abilities are potent beyond his years. Whether Taira is looking for rear-naked chokes or baiting escapes that lead to armlocks, the native of Japan will be extremely dangerous anytime he attaches himself to Park.
Tatsuro Taira vs. HyunSung Park odds
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the Japanese fighter, listing Taira -355 and Park +270 via FanDuel.
Tatsuro Taira vs. HyunSung Park prediction, pick
Between the hype on Taira and the fact that Park is stepping in on short notice, I can totally understand the betting spread listed above. That said, I suspect that this fight will be more competitive than the odds indicate.
Even though Park wasn't training for a 25-minute fight, he was already in town and prepped to face a top flyweight on the August 9th card the following week. And when I strip out the intangible noise and just look at the fight from a style's perspective, I see Park potentially presenting some real problems for everyone's favorite Japanese prospect.
Don't get me wrong: Taira is the deserved favorite, and him handing Park his first pro defeat should surprise no one.
However, if Park's wrestling and submission defense is as good as I suspect, then I believe he can make this a close and competitive fight. When two back-takers meet (a la Kevin Lee vs. Michael Chiesa), I typically side with the better wrestler, not the better back-taker, to win.
It's an unpopular pick that has a high chance of making me look more foolish than usual, but I can't go against what my eyes are seeing in this spot. I'll take a flier on Park to survive the early storm and pull away down the stretch via superior striking and bodywork.
Prediction: Park by decision
Tatsuro Taira vs. HyunSung Park start time, how to watch
As the main event, Taira and Park are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:30 p.m. ET. The fight broadcasts live on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.