Drone use signals India and Pakistan need new norms of engagement

South China Morning Post

a day ago

On July 21, reports confirmed that militant groups in Pakistan have begun using small quadcopter drones to target security forces. While this may appear to be a mere tactical shift, it reflects a deeper and more alarming transformation in South Asia's strategic arena. The growing convergence of non-state actors, emerging technologies and external enablers is eroding traditional conflict thresholds and obscuring accountability.
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Drawing lessons from the
Russia-Ukraine and Iran-Israel conflicts, where low-cost drones were used for strategic disruption, this emerging threat paradigm in South Asia introduces new risks of inadvertent escalation, especially between
nuclear-armed rivals . Without clearly defined red lines and mutual restraint regarding the use of proxies and low-cost precision systems against strategic assets, India and Pakistan are headed towards a phase of strategic ambiguity that will undermine crisis stability and complicate deterrence efforts.
Before attacking Iran, Israeli operatives reportedly smuggled parts of small armed drones into the country using civilian vehicles. These drones were deployed to inhibit Iran's air defence systems, enabling continued
Israeli bombardment . Ukraine's drone operations deep inside Russian territory, which involved 117 drones using Russian cellular networks, reportedly destroyed a third of the Kremlin's strategic bombers on the tarmac of four airfields. This heralds a troubling trend in modern warfare: the use of infiltration paired with the strategic utility of low-cost weapons systems.
Pakistan faces a similar trajectory of threats. In April, security officials said they had uncovered a terror plot to attack Masroor Airbase, one of the country's most sensitive military sites. Such an attack would not be unprecedented. Witnesses to a 2011 attack on Mehran Naval Base said militants destroyed P-3C Orion aircraft essential for anti-submarine warfare and maritime surveillance. The 2012 attack on Minhas Airbase in Karma resulted in damage to early warning defences.
Such attacks, previously conducted through militant infiltration, now risk being supplemented or replaced by drone-based incursions launched from within Pakistan's territory or border regions. The complexity is further deepened by India's evolving approach to covert operations.
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Since 2021, Indian intelligence services have reportedly orchestrated a campaign of targeted assassinations inside Pakistan using Pakistani and Afghan nationals rather than Indian operatives. These operations, conducted with the help of intermediaries in the United Arab Emirates, indicate efforts to establish deniable operation channels. Similar tactics have reportedly been applied in Canada.