Alberta and Carney: conflict and collision — Can Alberta survive Carney's net-zero agenda?
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This collision is inevitable and imminent. Net zero is difficult to reconcile with growing, or even sustaining, existing hydrocarbon production in Canada.
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In April, Prime Minister Mark Carney won a near majority government based on his perceived superior credibility in confronting the tariff threats from the Trump administration. The win was narrow in the popular vote nationally but not in Alberta, where Carney's party gained only 28 per cent of the vote. The outcome was defined by tariffs and not a direct endorsement of net zero imperative for Canada.
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Canada has endured a decade of economic stagnation, much of it attributable to the obstruction of hydrocarbon production and related infrastructure by the various elements of the Canadian left. Yet, net zero remains a policy goal of the Carney government.
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It's unreasonable for any Canadian prime minister to speak about becoming an 'energy superpower' while placing self-destructive limits on the development of Canada's hydrocarbon endowment.
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Meanwhile, hydrocarbon demand globally is not declining, nor is it expected to in the foreseeable future. Any global market share for hydrocarbons that Canada relinquishes in its pursuit of net zero will be captured by other nations, creating no real net decrease in global emissions.
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Carney wasn't elected to explicitly deconstruct the hydrocarbon industry — and with it, much of Alberta's economy. Yet, that would be the consequence if his government materially advances its net zero agenda.
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If this is not Carney's intention, he should clarify his position to be consistent with the following:
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• No federal emission caps will apply to hydrocarbon production through at least 2050.
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• The Impact Assessment Act (Bill C-69), will be repealed and replaced with an expedited review process that ensures irrevocable political sanction for major projects within one year of regulatory application, free of climate tests and explicit statutory guidance on stakeholder consultation and accommodation.
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