India's blind spot in South Asia

Express Tribune

14-05-2025

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In the immediate aftermath of a militant attack at Pahalgam in IIOJK that killed 26 people, India initiated hostilities against Pakistan on baseless accusations. It attacked civilian sites inside Azad Kashmir and parts of Punjab through missiles and drones. Under the pretext of terrorism, India targeted non-combatant sites inside Pakistan.
India claims victory to satisfy its population for political gains at home, increase its regional and global standings and attempt to set up a new normal. However, as a result of Pakistan's befitting counteractions on May 10, India could not achieve its objectives across diplomatic, strategic, and technological domains.
Unrealistically, many in India claim to have undermined Pakistan's nuclear deterrence by targeting civilian sites inside Pakistan, as a result of which 33 innocent civilians lost their lives, with more than 40 got injured. India did not attack strategic sites inside Pakistan due to the fear of retaliation from the Pakistani side and escalation to the nuclear level.
Though there is a disparity in conventional forces between Pakistan and India, PAF once again demonstrated remarkable skills, maneuverability and will to safeguard the country's sovereignty. In contrast, the IAF, which recently inducted one of the world's most sophisticated French-made Rafale jets into its fleet, is reported to have lost five jets, including 3 Rafale, on May 7, in no time. This is a very big setback to India, which spends billions of dollars to modernise its air force.
Also, India's launch of more than 70 sophisticated Harop drones could not cause lethality and destruction as assumed, as these were effectively neutralised by Pakistan, mainly through a soft-kill approach, showcasing modern warfare capabilities and technological strides.
After the May 7 attacks on Pakistan, an increasing uncertainty prevailed in India. The imminent fear of retaliation by Pakistan, which was justifiable under international law, left India in a state of extreme uncertainty, as evidenced by the suspension of its billion-dollar IPL cricket event and the decline of the Indian rupee due to the security situation. Furthermore, amid heightened situations, India suspended civilian operations at 24 airports.
After showing aggression, India, through massive use of propaganda, attempted to show it to the world that it has acted in self-defence, and that Pakistan has already targeted its territories. India's accusations of missile and drone attacks from the Pakistani side also show that it wanted to de-escalate at that point, as the prospects of countermeasures by Pakistan grew.
Yet again, India could not disregard Pakistan's nuclear deterrence and establish a new normal. While some in India argue that in 2016, 2019, and now, in 2025, Pakistan made no mention of the use of nuclear weapons. It is important to note that every nuclear weapon state has a nuclear doctrine and sets a threshold for nuclear weapon use at a certain level. Pakistan's nuclear forces, fortified with sophisticated delivery systems, have become a reality that the adversary cannot evade.
Pakistan showed strategic patience and exercised maximum restraint, making its case firm and justifiable in the light of international law before it launched the operation 'Bunyan Marsoos'. Pakistan's coordinated ground-based and aerial strikes seemed to have effectively bypassed India's advanced defence systems, which were supposed to be inescapable.
Pakistan took bold and firm actions and targeted the strategic sites inside India. Initially, India was reluctant to leave a space for diplomacy. But its massive diplomatic outreach amid a spiral of worries that led to the US brokering a ceasefire indicates a reversal in its stance.
The crisis brought India and Pakistan very close to a wider conflict, and the risk of nuclear escalation has never before reached this level. The situation worsened due to the absence of a dialogue mechanism and an effective crisis management mechanism. The US should play a role in resolving the longstanding issues, managing the regional security environment and maintaining strategic stability in South Asia, which is key to peace and stability in the region and beyond.