Q3 wave of condo launches will test demand for Singapore prime projects above S$3,000 psf benchmark

Business Times

6 days ago

[SINGAPORE] A wave of new condominium launches in the coming weeks will pose a litmus test of buyer appetite for prime properties, with prices pushing past S$3,000 per square foot (psf) for several projects.
Some 10 new projects offering about 4,750 homes are expected to be marketed in July and August, before the start of the Hungry Ghost Festival. Beginning in the last week of August, the month-long event is a seasonally slow period for the property market.
Four of these projects are in the prime Core Central Region (CCR): W Residences Marina View, The Robertson Opus, Upperhouse at Orchard Boulevard, and River Green.
Another two – Amber House in the east and Promenade Peak at Zion Road – have Rest of Central Region (RCR) addresses, but will likely be priced close to CCR benchmarks due to their location.
In September, two more centrally located condos could be launched: Skye at Holland at Holland Drive, and Zyon Grand at Zion Road.
Within the CCR, some 1,857 homes will be marketed – the largest number of new units there since 2021, said Mark Yip, chief executive officer of Huttons Asia.
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PropNex chief executive officer Ismail Gafoor noted that for the whole of 2023, only two new prime condos totalling 258 units were launched; in 2024, three projects offered 571 units.
There was just one CCR condo (the 367-unit The Collective at One Sophia) launched in the fourth quarter of 2024, and two smaller projects (the 188-unit Aurea and the 18-unit 21 Anderson) in the first half of 2025.
Property players will be watching the upcoming launches closely, to determine strategies for a market where high-end condo sales have been squashed by cooling measures and overall sentiment is soft.
Developers' sales of new projects fell sharply in Q2 2025 after a surge in buying in the two quarters before. Across all regions, total new sales were down 66 per cent at 1,124 units in Q2.
The batch of CCR projects this quarter will bring not just a step-up in supply, but also higher price points than the mass-market condos that sold well in the past.
Alan Cheong, executive director of research and consultancy at Savills Singapore, said: 'We don't expect demand to flood in, like what we saw for a few projects in the RCR and Outside Central Region (OCR) in 2024 and early 2025. Once developers have established S$3,000 psf as the benchmark, subsequent new launches in the CCR will build on that baseline.'
While the boost in supply at the top of the market is raising some concerns, 'over time, if the pricing remains flexible, you will see take-up come in at a steady rate', he added.
Palatable prices for local buyers
IOI Properties' W Residences Marina View, a 683-unit branded residences project being built on top of a new W hotel, begins booking sales this Saturday (Jul 12), with prices starting above S$2.1 million for the smallest one-bedroom units. On a psf basis, prices are estimated to range from S$3,800 to S$6,000 psf.
In the River Valley area, the first out of the gate is the 999-year leasehold The Robertson Opus, followed by three 99-year leasehold condos bunched around the River Valley Green and Zion Road locale.
Prices for The Robertson Opus, a Frasers Property-Sekisui House project, start from S$3,150 psf. Wing Tai will begin previews for its 524-unit River Green on Jul 17.
UOL and Singapore Land have also started marketing Upperhouse at Orchard Boulevard, with agents advertising indicative prices from just under S$3,000 psf to about S$3,500 psf.
The last 99-year leasehold project launched in the Orchard area was Cuscaden Reserve, released in 2019 at prices ranging from S$3,300 to S$3,500 psf.
The boost in new CCR supply, most of it coming out of government land sale sites, is likely to cap prices at levels palatable to local buyers. PropNex's Gafoor anticipates that 'developers will likely price units sensitively to try to get sales going during the initial stages of the project launch'.
The current market is price-sensitive, especially with the broad line-up of launches available, added Justin Quek, Realion's deputy group chief executive officer.
Demand in the CCR has been tepid since the government hiked additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) rates in April 2023.
Foreign buyers, who typically account for a larger share of sales in the CCR compared with the city fringe and suburban areas, stayed away after ABSD for such purchasers was doubled to 60 per cent.
Based on caveats data from Realis, foreigners now account for 6.9 per cent of new non-landed private home sales in Q1, and 7.1 per cent in Q2. These figures are among the lowest on a quarterly basis since 2021, said Gafoor.
That said, Huttons' Yip noted there were buyers who picked up properties priced above S$4,000 psf in 21 Anderson and Park Nova in Q2 this year.
Moreover, in June, a 3,326-square-foot (sq ft) unit at Sculptura Ardmore changed hands at S$20 million or S$6,013 psf, and a new 5,285 sq ft unit at Skywaters Residences was sold for S$30.9 million or S$5,841 psf.
'Window of opportunity'
Yip said that as the price gap between properties in the CCR and RCR shrinks to one of the narrowest on record, buyers may view this as a 'window of opportunity' to enter the CCR market.
Statistics from ERA research showed that with prices in other regions rising at a faster clip than those in prime areas, the median price difference in H1 2025 between the CCR and RCR has been whittled down to just S$59 psf; between the CCR and OCR, the gap is S$479 psf.
Yip believes that with prices benchmarked around S$3,000 psf, new 99-year leasehold CCR condos could be 'very attractive' to buyers. In comparison, the average price of a new freehold or 999-year leasehold project in the CCR has risen 23.4 per cent to S$3,437 psf since 2020, he said.
ERA's key executive officer, Eugene Lim, added that in the new Zion Road and River Valley cluster, prices are likely to be relatively competitive, even if neighbouring sites fall under different regions.
These projects may also garner more interest from home upgraders, said Gafoor. They are not far from the Bukit Merah public housing estate, where resale values are high and numerous 'million-dollar' flat sales have been transacted.
Savills' Cheong added that the government's latest seller's stamp duty (SSD) revisions are unlikely to affect those buying a unit for their own use or rental. 'It should also not affect prices of new launches, as developers (have already sewn up) their marketing strategies and pricing,' he said.
'Nevertheless, it may take the wind out of the sails of those who had crafted the narrative that buyers can flip (their properties) before they even need to draw down on their housing loans, or (need to rent them out), which they may now have to do with the extended SSD period.'
Supply boost
The increase in CCR supply in Q3 comes amid a significant boost in private housing supply. At least 10 projects are slated for launch, offering close to 5,000 new homes.
In comparison, 3,251 units were marketed across six projects in Q1, and 1,526 units were pushed out through five projects in Q2.
This upcoming wave of launches is larger than the bumper crop marketed in the last quarter of 2024. In November alone, six projects yielding a total of 3,551 units were launched – among them were Chuan Park, Nava Grove, Emerald of Katong, Novo Place Executive Condominium, and The Collective at One Sophia.
The projects rolled out then were in popular residential estates that for some time had not had new launches, and some were attractively priced. Interest rates were also easing, and the economic outlook was brightening.
'You could say that the stars aligned in Q4 2024,' said Tricia Song, head of research for South-east Asia at CBRE.
Developers sold about 4,000 new homes that quarter, and rang up another 4,240 units in new sales in the following three months as buying momentum continued – another large batch of new homes was released in Q1 2025.
Three major projects – Lentor Central Residences, The Orie in Toa Payoh, and Parktown Residence in Tampines – all notched take-up rates of about 90 per cent over their launch weekends.
But sentiment has since turned cautious, with growing tariff stress and geopolitical tensions, as well as fresh downside risks to the economy, said Gafoor of PropNex.