2025 Concacaf Gold Cup odds: Mexico, USMNT remain on collision course for final
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Mexico was the favorite to win the Gold Cup before the quarterfinals and was the only team to win a quarterfinal without going to penalties. El Tri beat Saudi Arabia 2-0 while the USMNT, Guatemala and Honduras advanced via penalties. After that, Mexico is -135 to win the tournament on BetMGM with the Americans at +130, putting the implied odds of a Mexico triumph at a little less than a 60-40 proposition.
The U.S. needed penalties and a sixth round within the shootout against Costa Rica on Sunday. Goalkeeper Matt Freese played a starring role, with three saves in the shootout, which pitted him against Costa Rica legend Keylor Navas.
While the top two favorites advanced, the next two contenders did not, leaving a pair of lopsided semifinal matchups. Honduras scored an 82nd-minute equalizing goal and then beat Group C winner Panama in a shootout that also went six rounds. Canada, which was the biggest favorite of the four quarterfinals, lost to Guatemala in a seven-round shootout after going down a man just before halftime.
The resulting semifinals see Mexico and the U.S. overwhelmingly favored. Mexico is -650 to advance against Honduras, while the U.S. is -625 to get through Guatemala.
Both semifinals will take place on Wednesday. The U.S. plays against Guatemala first in St. Louis. The nightcap is Mexico-Honduras from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California.
While the USMNT and El Tri are staples in Gold Cup finals (the only time one of those two teams did not win the tournament was 2000), Honduras and Guatemala are not. Since the continental tournament reformatted as the Gold Cup in 1991, Guatemala has never made the final. Honduras did once, in the first edition in 1991.
If the odds hold and the favorites win, this would be the eighth Gold Cup final featuring the U.S. and Mexico. Mexico has won five of the previous seven such meetings, although the Americans have the most recent victory in 2021.
Betting/odds links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo of Diego Luna: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)
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