Does J&J's Innovative Medicine Unit Hold the Key to Q2 Sales Growth?
J&J's Innovative Medicine unit is showing a growth trend with sales rising in the segment despite the loss of exclusivity (LOE) for its multi-billion-dollar product, Stelara, and the negative impact of the Part D redesign. Higher sales of key products, such as Darzalex, Tremfya and Erleada, due to strong market growth and share gains, are likely to have driven the segment's growth in the second quarter. Sales of some other drugs like Xarelto and Simponi/Simponi Aria are likely to have risen. New drugs like Carvykti, Tecvayli, Talvey, Rybrevant plus Lazcluze and Spravato are also expected to have contributed to growth.
However, lower sales of key drugs, Stelara and Imbruvica, and generic/biosimilar competition to drugs like Zytiga and Remicade are likely to have hurt top-line growth.
Several biosimilar versions of J&J's multi-billion-dollar immunology drug, Stelara, have been launched in the United States in 2025. According to patent settlements and license agreements, Amgen AMGN, Teva, Samsung Bioepis/Sandoz and some other companies have already launched Stelara biosimilars this year. The Stelara LOE hurt revenue growth by 470 basis points in the first quarter of 2025. We expect the negative impact to be steeper in the second quarter.
Rising competitive pressure in the United States due to new oral competition is likely to have hurt sales of Imbruvica. Sales of the PAH drug, Uptravi are likely to have been hurt by the impact of Part D redesign, similar to the first quarter, despite market share gains.
However, despite Stelara LOE and Medicare Part D headwinds, J&J expects growth in the Innovative Medicine segment in the second quarter and through the rest of the year. Our estimates for the Innovative Medicine unit suggest a CAGR of around 3% over the next three years.
J&J Key Competitors
Immunology and oncology are J&J's key areas. Other large drugmakers with a strong presence in the oncology market include Novartis, AstraZeneca AZN, AbbVie ABBV, Merck, Bristol-Myers, Roche and Pfizer. In immunology, AbbVie, Amgen, Sanofi, AstraZeneca and Pfizer hold a strong position.
JNJ's Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates
J&J's shares have outperformed the industry year to date. The stock has risen 9.6% in the year-to-date period against a 0.6% decline of the industry.
From a valuation standpoint, J&J is reasonably priced. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company's shares currently trade at 14.45 forward earnings, lower than 14.86 for the industry. The stock is also trading below its five-year mean of 15.73.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 earnings has remained unchanged at $10.60 per share and $10.98 per share, respectively, over the past 60 days.
J&J has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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