Italy's GDP may drop 1.4% if US tariffs hit 30%: EY-Parthenon Bulletin
EY forecasts Italian GDP growth of 0.6 per cent this year, and that may rise to 0.8 per cent in 2026.
Italy's GDP may drop by 0.9 per cent if US tariffs are 20 per cent, the EY-Parthenon Bulletin said. It may fall by 1.4 per cent in case tariffs are 30 per centâ€'effectively wiping out expected growth. It forecasts 2025 GDP growth of 0.6 per cent, and that may rise to 0.8 per cent in 2026. Despite this challenging scenario, Italian companies are demonstrating a strong ability to react internationally.
EY-Parthenon is the strategy consulting arm of Ernst & Young (EY), focusing on transformative strategy and transactions.
If tariffs were confirmed at 20 per cent, as announced in early April, the economic impact is estimated at around €20 billion, a 65 per cent contraction compared to growth expectations, i.e., minus 0.9 per cent cumulative between 2025 and 2026.
Despite this challenging scenario, Italian companies are demonstrating a strong ability to react internationally, Marco Daviddi, managing partner EY-Parthenon in Italy, wrote in the bulletin.
In the first six months of 2025, there was significant growth in investments by Italian companies in foreign targets, with 143 announced acquisitions, compared to 122 in the same period of 2024, marking a 17 per cent increase.
The value of transactions also increased, from €7.1 billion in the first half of 2024 to €13.5 billion in the same period of 2025, with the industrial sector being the leading sector, accounting for 24 per cent of transactions.
The growth in mergers and acquisitions was moderate: 6 per cent in the number of deals in the first half this year, but with a halving in value compared to the same period in 2024.
Industry (22 per cent), consumer goods (18 per cent) and technology, services and energy (11 per cent) remain the most active sectors.
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