Gerry Thornley: Wily old fox Joe Schmidt likely to have plenty up his sleeve for Lions Tests

Irish Times

12 hours ago

Okay, let's be honest, that was not a weekend that set the pulses racing at the prospect of the upcoming Test series between the
British & Irish Lions
and
Australia
.
Andy Farrell's
side, having been beaten by Argentina, laboured to a win over the Waratahs on Saturday and a day later
Joe Schmidt's
Wallabies played second fiddle to the Fijians before scraping home.
No doubt there will be an even greater temptation out there to dismiss this expedition Down Under as being decidedly non-vintage and likely to conclude with a devalued Test series. Maybe that will indeed prove to be the case. But let's not be too hasty. All of the jousting over the last three weeks and the rest of this week remain part of the phoney war.
True, at face value, this year's tour appears to lack some of the epic feel and stardust of previous Lions sorties to the southern hemisphere. As if almost preordained, in five of the Lions' last seven tours they visited the then world champions.
The exceptions were in 2003, when England were the world champions and bulk suppliers for the flawed 2005 tour to New Zealand, and also the last tour to Australia in 2013, a couple of years after the Wallabies had finished third in the World Cup when losing their semi-final away to eventual champions New Zealand.
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By contrast, two years ago Australia suffered the ignominy of a first ever World Cup pool exit after losing 22-15 to Fiji and 40-6 to Wales, which seems even more incredible given the latter's defeat to Japan last Saturday was their 18th in a row since France 2023.
Watching the Wallabies struggle to withstand Fiji's strong push for another famous win in Newcastle on Sunday provided echoes of that nadir under Eddie Jones two years ago. But no less than Argentina in the Aviva Stadium, it should also have served to remind us that this is one of the best Fijian sides ever.
Los Pumas, much improved under Felipe Contepomi since Michael Cheika guided them somewhat misleadingly to the semi-finals in France, and the Flying Fijians are seriously good sides for whom these games were free shots, whereas the Lions and Australia have had the distraction of this upcoming series and will be all the better for these preparatory games.
Argentina are a seriously good team, and the British and Irish Lions may have benefitted from meeting them even if the defeat was painful. Photograph: Dan Sheridan/Inpho
It's true that for all the improvements under Schmidt the Wallabies only won one of their six matches in last year's Rugby Championship, while three of their five wins were against Wales and one was at the expense of Georgia.
Yet there was no denying the merit of their 42-37 win over England in Twickenham, nor should we forget how Schmidt's well-prepared team went a long way toward negating Ireland with their targeting of the breakdown and organisation of their defence in losing 22-19 at the Aviva last November.
True to type under Schmidt, the Wallabies have become vastly more efficient at the breakdown, are better organised defensively and have become a much more settled if vastly changed side since the short-lived but destructive Jones reign. Only four of the matchday 23 in that 40-6 loss to Wales less than two years ago were involved against Fiji.
While the game drifted away from them against Fiji and they were forced to cling on before finding a way to win, there was still continuing evidence of the improvement under Schmidt in that first half especially.
The set pieces were strong, while some of the offloading, link play and handling were very slick. But for two marginal calls by referee Pierre Brousset they could well have led 28-0 and after the break they effectively had a third try ruled out, correctly, for a forward pass by fullback Tom Wright.
While rightly miffed by Brousset's call of a crooked throw, Schmidt attributed those two forward passes to skill execution. No less than some of the loose kicking, and not putting the ball off the field after the 40-minute mark before conceding the first Fijian try, those errors can be rectified.
Indeed, akin to the Lions losing to Los Pumas, last Sunday's scare in Newcastle will probably serve as a helpful wake-up call for the Wallabies. For what it undoubtedly proved was that they badly needed that game.
Expect Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii to be more prominent for Australia against the British and Irish Lions than he was against Fiji. Photograph:As well as benefitting that chance to dust off cobwebs and survive a severe jolt, the Wallabies will most likely welcome back Rob Valetini, an ever-present in the Wallabies' 13 Tests under Schmidt last year, Will Skelton and Jake Gordon, the starting scrumhalf in nine of those 13 matches.
Valetini and Skelton will add some ball-carrying ballast to the Wallabies mix and while the running threat of Tate McDermott is particularly effective when sprung from the bench as a game loosens up, Gordon has set the tempo of the team under Schmidt.
And on the wily old fox, there's every chance that, no less than the Lions, the Wallabies weren't of a mind to completely show their hand. This era of forensic video analysis of opponents is compounded by Schmidt having so much familiarity with Farrell, Johnny Sexton and Simon Easterby, and vice versa.
For example, Noah Lolesio hardly utilised the peerless aerial skills of Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, whereas in Brisbane next Saturday week one imagines the latter will be the primary chaser of every restart.
There was always a 'Schmidt Factor' when he plotted Leinster or Ireland wins in his hugely influential decade based in Dublin, particularly when he had a good deal of time to prepare. Think back to the historic win over the All Blacks in Chicago in November 2016, a fixture for which he could devise a strategy over the preceding months.
Furthermore, his imprint was, of course, all over New Zealand's World Cup quarter-final win over Ireland in the Stade de France. Schmidt has had eight months to plot and plan for this series against the Lions. Ominously, he seemed relatively relaxed and sanguine after Sunday's game.
A warm-up match in front of 28,000 in rugby league territory in Newcastle is one thing. A first Test in front of a near 60,000 capacity in Brisbane's Lang Park for a series that comes to Australia once every 12 years is another.
It will be different gravy.
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