AMD Stock Rally Is ‘Empty Calories,' Says Citi's Top Analyst

Business Insider

a day ago

Citi's top analyst, Christopher Danely, calls the recent rally in AMD stock (AMD) 'empty calories' because he believes the chip ban can be reinstated at any time. Yesterday, Advanced Micro Devices rallied 6.4% after President Donald Trump lifted the ban on export of artificial intelligence (AI) chips to China. The news also boosted shares of major semiconductor companies, including Nvidia (NVDA), which rose 4% to reach a new all-time high of $172.40.
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Danely has a 'Hold' rating on AMD stock and a price target of $145, which implies 6.8% downside potential from current levels. Danely ranks #588 out of 9,861 analysts tracked on TipRanks. He boasts a 66% success rate and an average return per rating of 11.40%.
Here's Why Citi Is Skeptical About the AI Ban Reversal
The easing of export restrictions means AMD can now resume shipments of its MI308 AI chips to China. The White House had previously imposed a ban on the export of advanced AI chips to China due to national security concerns. Notably, AMD was expected to take an $800 million hit from the ban, while Nvidia faced a larger $5.5 billion impact. However, the situation has changed following the easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
Danely has a rather skeptical view on the news. He noted that the resumption of MI308 chip sales to China is 'not sustainable' as they could be banned again. The U.S.-China trade relations remain fragile, and even a minor incident could prompt substantial policy shifts.
Having said that, Danely believes that the Trump administration's $70 billion investment in Pennsylvania for AI and energy could be highly beneficial for chipmakers, including AMD, NVDA, Broadcom (AVGO), and Micron (MU).
AMD Is Positioning as a Serious Rival to Nvidia
For years, AMD has been seen as secondary to Nvidia, with the latter's advanced AI chips and GPUs (Graphics Processing Units) commanding global attention. However, AMD is rapidly advancing with its own chip innovations to compete more effectively with Nvidia.
Recently, AMD launched its new line of MI350 AI chips, which are expected to be nearly 30% cheaper than Nvidia's comparable chips. Also, AMD's MI355X features high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which is reportedly three times that offered by Nvidia's Blackwell B200.
Is AMD a Good Stock to Buy?
Despite the current optimism surrounding Advanced Micro Devices, analysts remain divided about its long-term outlook. On TipRanks, AMD stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 25 Buys and 10 Hold ratings. Also, the average AMD price target of $135.97 implies 12.6% downside potential from current levels. Year-to-date, AMD stock has gained nearly 29%.