Heatwaves in June made 10 times more likely due to climate change
It's only days since the first UK heatwave of 2025 but, hot on its heels, a second is already very likely in some places this weekend.We're still only in the first month of summer, and generally our hottest weather usually occurs during July and August.However, the statistics show that June heatwaves are becoming increasingly common and intense.While some love the warmth, heatwaves can have huge consequences for us as a society, from adverse health impacts, to transport disruption and increasing the threat of wildfires.
Is summer's 'coolest' month heating up?
June in the UK is typically the coolest of the three summer months, with average maximum temperatures of around 18C - that's around 2C below what we expect for July. Things are changing though and a recent Met Office blog post points to "a clear upward trend" in the number of June days above 30C, external. The increase varies for different parts of the UK, but according to the post "England consistently leads in the number of 30°C+ recordings, particularly in the south-east".
Climate scientists at World Weather Attribution (WWA) quantify how climate change influences the intensity and likelihood of extreme weather events. They have found that the chance of seeing three consecutive June days above 28C in south-east England (the heatwave threshold for parts of the region) is now one in every five years. During pre-industrial times south-east England only experienced these temperatures once every 50 years, meaning human induced climate change has made June heatwaves here 10 times more likely. Recent years that have had significant June heatwaves include 2017 and 2020, and 2023 holds the title for the hottest June on record. Whilst heatwaves in June are becoming more frequent, they are still not as intense as those in later in the summer, such as the record-breaking extreme heat of July 2022, when the UK recorded temperatures above 40C for the first time.
What about the historic heatwave of June 1976?
When intense heatwaves occur in the UK many people make comparisons with the extraordinary summer of 1976. In June that year a very long-lasting heatwave developed and it still holds the record for the hottest June day ever recorded - a scorching 35.6C in Southampton. However, when analysing historic weather data it is clear that 1976 was a significant outlier in an otherwise cooler decade. During the entire decade of the 1970s for example, Heathrow recorded just 14 June days above 28C. Compare that with the current period, and since 2020 there have already been 26 days above 28C - and we're only halfway through this decade. As our climate continues to warm what was once a rare meteorological event is now becoming a more regular feature of our early summers.
How do heatwaves affect me?
A dose of warm, sunny weather can really lift our mood but we can also reach a point of feeling too hot and uncomfortable and heatwaves can have serious health consequences. How well our bodies deal with heat depends on several weather factors such as humidity, wind and cloud cover. It also varies hugely between individuals, with the elderly, the very young, those who are pregnant or people with underlying health conditions, particularly vulnerable.The Office for National Statistics estimates that during 2022 there were more than 4500 excess deaths due to heat-related illnesses in England.It's not just our health that is at risk, but also our natural environments, infrastructure and transport networks. Network Rail estimates that in 2024 delays caused by rails that buckled due to extreme heat totalled 240 days.Since 2021 the Met Office has introduced warnings for extreme heat, external which can be issued to alert the general public when temperatures are forecast to rise high enough and for long enough to cause significant disruption to our lives. Lower level 'Heat Heat Alerts, external' are also issued by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) that are aimed at emergency responders and professionals with the health and social care sectors.
How will temperatures change this week?
The rest of this week will have a quite a fluctuating temperature pattern. After a cooler start, the heat will build again temporarily on Wednesday especially in the south and east. However, it's from Saturday onwards that we could see several parts of central and eastern England returning to heatwave conditions for three or more consecutive days.Stay up to date with the temperatures where you are on the BBC Weather website and app.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Western Telegraph
20 minutes ago
- Western Telegraph
Heatwave to serve hottest ever start to Wimbledon with temperatures to hit 35C
Sunday may reach 31C in parts of southern England, but Monday will be even hotter, with highs of 34C in central and eastern England, forecasters say. Parts of south-east England could then hit 35C on Tuesday, forecaster Matthew Lenhert said, which would be hotter than Barbados. Wimbledon is set for its hottest opening day on record on Monday and could even see the highest temperature ever recorded during the tournament. The hottest ever Wimbledon day was on July 1 2015, when temperatures reached 35.7C. The warmest opening day on record was on June 25 2001, when temperatures hit 29.3C. Heatwave conditions will affect much of Continental Europe through the next week, but with the focus of the most anomalous heat moving southeast with time Temperatures are expected to be 5-10°C above normal fairly widely, with some locations continuing to exceed 40°C 🌡️ — Met Office (@metoffice) June 29, 2025 The hottest day of 2025 so far was recorded on June 21 in Charlwood, Surrey, when temperatures hit 33.2C. Tropical nights are also in store for many, with temperatures overnight not dropping below 20C, Mr Lenhert said. Fresher air is then expected to move in from the west in the middle of the week, bringing an end to the heatwave. It comes as a second amber heat health alert in two weeks came into force on Friday. The alert, which covers London, the East Midlands, South East, South West and East of England, will last until 6pm on Tuesday. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) also issued a yellow alert for Yorkshire and Humber and the West Midlands for the same time period, with the agency warning of significant impacts across health and social care services. Coco Gauff on the practice courts at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in Wimbledon (John Walton/PA) An amber alert was previously issued for all regions in England on June 19, the first time it had been used since September 2023. An official heatwave is recorded when areas reach a certain temperature for three consecutive days, with thresholds varying from 25C to 28C in different parts of the UK. London Fire Brigade assistant commissioner Thomas Goodall said: 'London is already facing its second heatwave of the year and we know that people will be looking forward to getting outside to enjoy the wonderful weather. 'But the high temperatures and low rainfall in recent months means the current risk of wildfires is severe. 'So far this year, firefighters have responded to around 14 wildfires in the capital. 'There have also been countless call outs to smaller fires involving grass, trees and in other outdoor spaces, as well as in people's gardens. 'During this latest heatwave, it is important everyone acts responsibly to prevent fires from occurring. 'As the weather has been so dry, it only takes a few sparks to lead to a fire spreading rapidly. 'In London, this is can be dangerous because so many of our green spaces lie close to homes and other properties.' There will be a 'marked difference' in north-western parts of the UK however, with cloud and heavy rain in parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland, where temperatures will stay in the mid to high teens, Mr Lenhert said. The hottest ever July 1 on record was in 2015, when the temperature hit 36.7C.
The Independent
an hour ago
- The Independent
Severe heat waves hit Southern Europe as local authorities warn against wildfire risks
Major heat waves across Southern Europe have pushed temperatures above 40 C (104 F) in countries including Italy, Spain and Greece, as local authorities issued fresh warnings against the risk of wildfires. Experts link the rising frequency and intensity of these heatwaves to climate change, warning that such extreme weather events are becoming increasingly common across Europe's southern region. Severe heat waves were recorded in Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal before the weekend, with locals and tourists alike taking shelter from the sweltering conditions. Two-thirds of Portugal were on high alert on Sunday for extreme heat and wildfires, with temperatures expected to top 42 C (107 F) in Lisbon. In Italy, a few regions — Lazio, Tuscany, Calabria, Puglia and Umbria — were planning to ban some outdoor work activities during the hottest hours of the day in response to the record-high temperatures. Italian trade unions pushed the government to expand such measures at a national level. On Sunday, the Italian Health Ministry placed 21 out of 27 monitored cities under its highest heat alert, including top holiday destinations like Rome, Milan and Naples. In Rome, tourists tried to seek shade near popular spots like the Colosseum and the Trevi Fountain, using umbrellas and drinking from public water fountains to stay cool. Similar scenes were reported in Milan and Naples, where street vendors sold lemonade to tourists and residents to offer some refreshment from the heat. Greece was again on high wildfire alert because of extreme weather, with the first summer heat wave expected to continue throughout the weekend. A large wildfire broke out south of Athens on Thursday, forcing evacuations and road closures near the ancient Temple of Poseidon. Strong winds spread the flames, damaging homes and sending smoke across the sky. Greek authorities deployed 130 firefighters, 12 planes and 12 helicopters to battle the blaze, while police evacuated 40 people, with five areas under evacuation orders. In Spain, locals and tourists were desperately trying to keep cool this weekend, as the country sizzled in temperatures as high as 42 C (107 F) in the southern city of Seville along with other locations in southern and central parts of the country. Southern regions of Spain recorded temperatures above seasonal averages, prompting health alerts and safety recommendations from authorities. The country's national meteorological service Aemet has said that June is set to break yet another record, becoming the hottest such month since records started. Experts warned that intense heat can affect daily life, especially for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and children. Local authorities advised against physical activity during the hottest hours of the day, and recommended drinking plenty of fluids. A Lancet Public Health study published last year highlighted the increasing risk of heat-related deaths because of climate change. The study predicted that heat-related deaths could more than quadruple by mid-century under current climate policies. While more people currently die from cold than heat, the study stressed that rising temperatures will offset the benefits of milder winters, leading to a significant net increase in heat-related mortality.
The Independent
3 hours ago
- The Independent
UK faces second 30C day before heatwave peaks on Monday
Sweltering conditions will persist in parts of England for the second consecutive day, with an a mber heat health alert still in effect. Forecasters say the mercury could surge to 30C in London, while parts of the Midlands and eastern England are expected to see highs of 28C. But not everyone will feel the heat – Scotland is likely to top out at a milder 21C, and the south-west of England may see peaks of 23C, the Met Office said. Sunday will see a band of cloud and rain across central parts of the UK, gradually edging northwards. This rain may ease for a time before turning heavier in the far northwest later in the day, the forecaster added. Southern areas will start cloudy with some patchy drizzle on western hills, but there will be plenty of dry weather too, with sunny spells developing. Temperatures could reach 34C on Monday, which, if it did, would only be the fourth time in June since the 1930s. The June record, which could be surpassed, stands at 35.6C, recorded at Southampton Mayflower Park on June 28 1976 and again at Camden Square, north London, on June 29 1957. Tuesday will hold the heat, and a maximum temperature of 34C is possible, before it will become cooler towards the mid-20s in the middle of next week, the forecaster added. An official heatwave is recorded when areas reach a certain temperature for three consecutive days, with thresholds varying from 25C to 28C in different parts of the UK. It comes as an amber heat health alert, covering London, the East Midlands, South East, South West and East of England, is in place until 6pm on Tuesday. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) also issued a yellow alert for Yorkshire and Humber and the West Midlands for the same time period, with the agency warning of significant impacts across health and social care services. Meanwhile, continental Europe is on high alert it faces its first major heatwave of the summer, with temperatures expected to climb as high as 42C. Aemet, Spain 's national weather agency, issued a special warning, forecasting highs of up to 42C in the country's southern regions in the coming days. In neighbouring Portugal, around two-thirds of the country will be placed under high alert on Sunday due to extreme temperatures and the risk of wildfires. Lisbon could see highs of 42C. In Italy, where cities such as Naples and Palermo are bracing for 39C heat, the regions of Sicily and Liguria have introduced bans on outdoor work during the hottest parts of the day.
