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DPP backers abandoned party for Sanseito in Upper House poll, analysis shows

DPP backers abandoned party for Sanseito in Upper House poll, analysis shows

Japan Times2 days ago
The opposition Democratic Party for the People and Sanseito won the same number of seats in Sunday's Upper House contest —but an analysis of voter trends in both parties in the months leading up to the election indicates a significant shift by those who previously voted for the DPP to Sanseito this time.
Thirteen proved to be the lucky number for both parties. The DPP went into the election contesting four seats and finishing with 17, for a total of 22 Upper House seats, including five seats not up for election. Sanseito, a populist right-wing party, increased its Upper House total from one to 14 seats.
A survey conducted between February and July by the Asahi Shimbun and Asako Miura, a University of Osaka professor who has written about how psychological behavior on social media toward news spreads, showed that while the DPP increased its seat total, it lost support over the six month period as Sanseito gained more backing.
The percentage of survey respondents who preferred the DPP rose from 13.7% in the February to March period to 15% in April to May but had dropped to 10.1% by July 18. The survey showed 20% of those who had said they favored the DPP in April to May later changed their preference to Sanseito.
Combined with those who shifted from the DPP to other parties, the DPP ultimately lost one-third of its total support.
On the other hand, the percentage of those who said they intended to vote for Sanseito stood at 1.2% in February to March, rising slightly to 1.4% in April to May. But the figure surged to 7.4% as of July 18 — a 5.3-fold increase. Half of Sanseito's increase came from those who previously supported the DPP.
The decrease in support for DPP was a blow for a party that had quadrupled its seat total from seven to 28 in last October's Lower House election. The DPP currently has 27 seats in that chamber.
Democratic Party for the People leader Yuichiro Tamaki delivers a campaign speech ahead of the July 20 Upper House elections in Tokyo on July 3. |
AFP-JIJI
In May, however, the DPP faced criticism over the nomination of candidates for the Upper House election. Although it decided in June not to endorse certain candidates, that failed to silence the party's critics.
The scandals played a role in souring views of the DPP. But voters who moved away from them also seemed attracted to Sanseito's message, the University of Osaka's Miura said.
'Many seem to have been attracted to the party's 'Japanese First' slogan,' she said.
'In fact, when asked about their impressions of the party, it was significant that those who gave it a high favorable rating mentioned this keyword more often than those who gave it a low or moderate favorable rating,'
The survey also showed respondents who favored the DPP and Sanseito the most got a significant amount of news and information from YouTube and social media. They had a strong distrust of the mainstream media, government and university experts, though Miura said there was no survey data as to the specific reasons.
'However, there appears to be a high level of distrust toward established systems and authority figures in general,' she said.
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