logo
Japan's factory activity grows for first time in 13 months: PMI

Japan's factory activity grows for first time in 13 months: PMI

Business Times4 days ago
[TOKYO] Japan's manufacturing sector expanded in June for the first time in 13 months led by an upswing in output, but overall demand remained weak as new orders shrank yet again amid uncertainty over US tariffs, a private sector survey showed on Tuesday.
The final au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.1 in June from 49.4 in May.
That undershot the flash figure of 50.4, but managed to nudge above the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction for the first time since May 2024.
Among sub-indexes, factory output grew in June to end a nine-month contraction streak, with some respondents citing hopes of improvements in future demand. Others said the production uptick also reflected a need to reduce backlogs of work, according to the survey.
The sub-index gauging manufacturers' future output expectations rose to a five-month high, while employment expanded in June for the seventh consecutive month.
'The latest PMI data signalled that demand conditions remained challenging for Japanese manufacturers in June, with firms recording further drops in sales both at home and overseas,' said Annabel Fiddes, economics associate director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which compiled the survey.
BT in your inbox
Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox.
Sign Up
Sign Up
'However, companies were more hopeful when looking ahead, which encouraged them to increase their staff numbers and raise production levels for the first time in a year.'
Fiddes said Japan will need to see sustained improvement in customer demand, which is being dampened by uncertainty over US tariffs, for a more durable recovery in production.
The uncertainty drove new orders down for the 25th consecutive month and at a faster pace compared with May.
New export orders also extended their slump since February 2022.
Some firms mentioned that the murky outlook for US tariffs was hampering sales, particularly in the semiconductor and automotive sectors, the survey showed.
The Japanese government is scrambling to obtain exemptions from the United States for the 25 per cent car tariffs to protect the domestic auto industry, which is a backbone of Japan's export-reliant manufacturing sector and the broader economy.
On inflation, the sub-indexes for input and output prices both rose from May, with firms citing higher costs for raw materials, labour and energy, according to the survey. REUTERS
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Brics set to condemn ‘coercive' tariffs, draft statement shows
Brics set to condemn ‘coercive' tariffs, draft statement shows

Business Times

time4 hours ago

  • Business Times

Brics set to condemn ‘coercive' tariffs, draft statement shows

[CAIRO] Brics leaders are poised to adopt a position at odds with US President Donald Trump on trade tariffs, aspects of conflict in the Middle East and the need to tackle climate change. In a draft statement prepared for their meeting in Brazil starting on Sunday (Jul 6), leaders will voice 'serious concern' about unilateral tariff and non-tariff measures, according to two officials from participating governments familiar with the ongoing deliberations. The government chiefs will also condemn the imposition of 'unilateral coercive measures that are contrary to international law', the officials said, asking not to be named since the discussions are private and the text of the final communique could still change. While not mentioning the Trump administration by name, the leading emerging-market nations are clearly referring to the US in the wake of the US president's unilateral tariffs imposed on countries worldwide. Facing punitive levies, nations including founding Brics member India are racing to strike deals with the US ahead of a Jul 9 deadline Trump has given for the tariffs to take effect. At the same time, the reluctance to directly challenge Trump reflects divisions within the bloc, with some, such as India, closer to Washington than others, amid concerns that Brics could become a vehicle for its largest member economy, China. Even so, Brics nations hosted in Rio de Janeiro by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are at cross purposes with the Trump administration on aspects of policy. That includes in the Middle East, with multiple references proposed to Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza, according to the draft text. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up 'Grave concern' The leaders may express 'grave concern' about the situation in Palestinian territory, citing the resumption of Israeli attacks and the obstruction of the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza, according to the officials. The language under consideration includes a condemnation of the use of starvation as a method of warfare – a reference to charges levelled at Israel, which it rejects. They are also deliberating a call for the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, and expressing their opposition to the forced displacement of any of the Palestinian population from their territory. That kind of statement – if the language appears in the final text when leaders wrap up their two-day summit on Jul 7 – is likely to be an unwelcome intervention as Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to meet with Trump at the White House the same day. Brics leaders are also expected to express their backing for the Paris climate agreement – a pact which Trump unilaterally abandoned – while calling for global governance of artificial intelligence (AI) to mitigate potential risks, according to the officials. The US is leading the race to develop AI and is pushing back against attempts at regulation by the likes of the European Union. The Brics nations are Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, as well as more recent full members Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates. The declaration will welcome a further 10 nations as partner countries, including Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Vietnam and Thailand. BLOOMBERG

Managing risks and finding opportunities in fixed income
Managing risks and finding opportunities in fixed income

Business Times

time5 hours ago

  • Business Times

Managing risks and finding opportunities in fixed income

IN THE current economic landscape, global fixed-income markets face significant uncertainty and volatility. Investors are contending with fluctuating growth rates, inflationary pressures, and unpredictable policy decisions. Tariffs and diverging macro policies across regions add complexity to the investment environment, necessitating a strategic approach to managing risk and identifying opportunities. Investors are concerned primarily with the implementation of macro policies. The current policy environment, especially in the US, is marked by significant uncertainty, leading to increased market anxiety. Central banks are downgrading growth expectations and are likely to continue gradually cutting rates. However, the US Federal Reserve is expected to lag behind other central banks in adjusting monetary policy. On the fiscal side, the reconciliation Bill in the US is under significant scrutiny for its future fiscal deficit implications, potentially impacting market dynamics, capital flows and the American currency's strength. Concerns over US debt levels and potential volatility are shaping the global fixed-income market. The substantial amount of public debt raises questions about leverage and transparency in these markets. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Investors are wary of crowded trades, which could trigger forced selling and rapid unwinds of leverage, creating challenging conditions – particularly in the illiquid over-the-counter fixed-income market. US downgrade and de-dollarisation Macroeconomic uncertainty is anticipated to peak in late summer, coinciding with the release of hard data and the resolution of debt ceiling negotiations. The recent downgrade of the US by Moody's poses a longer-term philosophical question rather than a present danger to Treasury investors, initiating discussions about its implications. It may not significantly alter daily investor activities – particularly as two other large rating agencies have also downgraded the US – but it requires adjustments for some institutional clients with guidelines on AAA securities. It challenges the conventional view of what constitutes a flight to safety or quality, as the US Treasury market is traditionally seen as the epitome of safety, and raises questions about what determines the nature of risk-free assets. The greenback will be under more pressure than Treasuries, but be wary of being materially underweight given the downward correction to date. The secular path towards de-dollarisation may be difficult to change, meaning the currency may remain under long-term pressure. Reducing trade deficits in the US will also reduce the capital surplus, leading to fewer dollars going out of the US, and therefore fewer dollars going back into investments there. Despite this, it is too extreme to conclude that the greenback will lose its reserve currency status any time soon as there are few, if any, viable alternatives. Plus, the majority of global contracts are denominated in US dollars. Being short, the US dollar is a crowded trade, and there may be upside surprises in the face of an economic downturn. Tight valuations put a premium on liquidity to make the most of future opportunities. A period of lower growth and overall lower inflation is supportive of investment-grade credit, but spreads have generally recovered most of the wider moves since the end of the first quarter, so we are comfortable with long, albeit defensive, exposure in this market. Given the asymmetry of risk-adjusted returns when spreads are considerably tight, maintaining liquidity in portfolios is key to taking advantage of potential future dislocations in the market. Positioning is stretched in many areas of the market, and an unwind of crowded trades could lead to some disruption due to the more illiquid nature of fixed-income markets. Portfolio positioning The global fixed-income market offers a broad universe for investment. European markets are drawing interest due to favourable valuations and continued rate cuts by the European Central Bank. Emerging markets present opportunities, particularly in regions with agreeable rate paradigms. Within the US, certain segments such as asset-backed securities and short-duration high yield remain attractive, with the Fed likely to be slower than other central banks to reduce rates. Capitalising on these opportunities requires a strong bottom-up research approach to identify good credits and manage downside risk in a volatile environment. Investment grade While spreads have fallen almost to pre-Liberation Day levels and reduced dispersion, specific opportunities are emerging across sectors in both Europe and the US. Utilities are particularly attractive due to their relatively cheap valuations, despite significant issuance driven by the push for decarbonisation. The need for substantial capital expenditure in utilities and potential growth from advancements in artificial intelligence and increased energy demands are likely to provide interesting investment opportunities, especially through the new issue market. Similarly, European banks, especially subordinated debt, are gaining interest due to strong stock performance and anticipated European economic growth from infrastructure and defence investment plans. They have also lagged somewhat in the recent recovery rally. Defensive sectors such as capital goods, food and beverage, and healthcare continue to offer better visibility and cash-flow generation, making them preferable over cyclical sectors such as retail and autos. Emerging market debt Emerging market hard-currency debt has traditionally been viewed as a less risky option compared to local currency debt due to its lower volatility and risk profile. However, hard-currency spreads have recovered the widening, and outperformed other credit asset classes such as high yield. Given the weakness in the US dollar and the attractiveness of some local rates markets, we are finding interesting risk-adjusted return opportunities in this area. Regional diversification within emerging markets is essential for optimising returns and managing risks. For example, Latin America could offer attractive investment opportunities due to upcoming electoral cycles that may result in favourable macro policies. Duration Globally, there are various opportunities to be long duration, depending on the country and part of the curve. In the US, the five-year and 10-year Treasury curves are attractive, while in Australia and South Korea, the front end of the curve is more appealing. European exposure – particularly in periphery markets such as Spain, Italy and Greece – provides still-attractive carry, with occasional interest in some supranational issuance, in particular the European Union at the long end of the curve. In the United Kingdom, both the front and long ends of the curve are attractive. This diversity in fixed-income markets allows investors to capitalise on dislocations and opportunities across different curves and regions. Stay focused and flexible The global fixed-income market is experiencing heightened uncertainty and volatility due to macroeconomic factors and policy decisions. This environment presents risks but also opportunities for investors who can strategically manage these challenges. A strong research focus and adaptability to changing conditions are essential for identifying attractive opportunities and mitigating risks to capital. Staying focused and vigilant about potential risks while being flexible in investment strategies is crucial for effectively navigating the evolving market dynamics. The writer is co-chief investment officer of fixed income at MFS Investment Management

Trump signs ‘big, beautiful' bill on US Independence Day
Trump signs ‘big, beautiful' bill on US Independence Day

Business Times

time5 hours ago

  • Business Times

Trump signs ‘big, beautiful' bill on US Independence Day

[WASHINGTON] US President Donald Trump signed his flagship tax and spending bill into law on Friday (Jul 4), capping a pomp-laden White House Independence Day ceremony featuring a stealth bomber fly-by. 'America is winning, winning, winning like never before,' Trump said at the event where he signed the so-called 'One Big Beautiful Bill', flanked by Republican lawmakers. The party fell into line and pushed the bill through a reluctant Congress on Thursday, in time for Trump to sign the bill as he had hoped on the Fourth of July holiday marking America's 249th birthday. Two B-2 bombers of the type that recently struck Iranian nuclear sites roared over the White House at the start of the ceremony, accompanied by fighter jets on their wingtips. Pilots who carried out the bombing on Iran were among those invited to the White House event. The passage of the unpopular bill caps two weeks of significant wins for Trump, including an Iran-Israel ceasefire that was sealed after what he called the 'flawless' US air strikes on Iran. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Ever the showman, Trump melded his various victory laps into one piece of political theatre at the ceremony marking 249 years of independence from Britain. The sprawling mega-bill honours many of Trump's campaign promises: extending tax cuts from his first term, boosting military spending and providing massive new funding for Trump's migrant deportation drive. Trump glossed over deep concerns from his own party and voters that it will balloon the national debt, while simultaneously gutting health and welfare support. 'The largest spending cut,' Trump said with First Lady Melania Trump at his side, 'and yet you won't even notice it'. Republican misgivings Trump forced through the 'big beautiful bill' despite deep misgivings in the Republican Party – and the vocal opposition of his billionaire former ally, Elon Musk. It squeezed past a final vote in the House of Representatives 218-214 after Republican Speaker Mike Johnson worked through the night to corral the final group of dissenters. Trump thanked Johnson at the White House event. The legislation is the latest in a series of big wins for Trump that also included a Supreme Court ruling last week that curbed lone federal judges from blocking his policies, and a Nato deal to increase spending. But the bill is expected to pile an extra US$3.4 trillion over a decade onto the US deficit. At the same time, it will shrink the federal food assistance programme and force through the largest cuts to the Medicaid health insurance scheme for low-income Americans since its 1960s launch. Up to 17 million people could lose their insurance coverage under the bill, according to some estimates. Scores of rural hospitals are expected to close as a result. Democrats hope public opposition to the bill will help them flip the House in the 2026 midterm election, pointing to data showing that it represents a huge redistribution of wealth from the poorest Americans to the richest. AFP

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store