Russia-China balancing act - World - Al-Ahram Weekly

Al-Ahram Weekly

25-06-2025

Russia and China have always kept an eye on Iran's relations with Israel and the US. This explains their quick response to the war Israel launched on Iran on 13 June and the US strike on Iran's key nuclear sites in Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz on 22 June. Moscow and Beijing's concerns heightened as they watched Tel Aviv and Washington exploiting the conflict to overthrow the Iranian regime and reshape the Middle East to serve their own interests.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping strongly condemned the strikes on Iran and called for a political and diplomatic resolution to the conflict. They also denounced direct US involvement in targeting Iran's nuclear facilities.
On the eve of the attack on Fordow, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev stated, 'now we can say it outright, the future production of nuclear weapons will continue,' threatening that 'a number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads.' On 22 June, Russia's foreign minister warned that global chaos would ensue if countries were permitted to interpret the right to self-defence under the UN Charter in any manner they choose.
China announced that the US strike on Iranian reactors could 'exacerbate tensions in the Middle East'. The Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that in striking the Iranian reactors the US has seriously violated the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and international law. In coordination with Moscow and Pakistan, China also prepared a draft resolution condemning the US attack on Iran, which was circulated to members of the UN Security Council.
Russia and China had opposed attempts to bring about regime change in Iran and called for the implementation of international agreements and resolutions related to managing the Iranian nuclear programme. The two countries believe the use of force could undermine regional peace and risk escalating tensions, potentially affecting the global economy and the interests of the US and other international and regional powers who enjoy strategic presence in the Middle East. Moscow and Beijing repeatedly warned of the dangers of targeting Iran's nuclear power plants, cautioning that such actions could result in an environmental and human disaster comparable to those of Chernobyl and Hiroshima.
Putin received Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in the Kremlin alongside Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov and Igor Kostyukov, the head of Russia's GRU military intelligence agency.
'The absolutely unprovoked aggression against Iran has no basis and no justification,' Putin told Araqchi, adding that he wanted to speak about ways to calm the crisis. 'For our part, we are making efforts to assist the Iranian people.'
Putin asserted that Russia maintains a partnership with Iran and offers support in light of the recent escalation with Israel, but not militarily. Similarly, China reaffirmed the importance of its strategic relationship with Tehran and rejected Israeli aggression but has not provided Iran with material support beyond continuing regular trade relations, refraining from directly supplying weapons to Iran to avoid US sanctions.
Both, Russia and China, shared a consensus regarding the war on Iran. They released a joint proposal on 19 June following a phone call between Putin and his Chinese counterpart. The proposal called for a ceasefire, an end to the war, and increased efforts to de-escalate the situation — a responsibility, they said, that lies with the international community, particularly with the major powers that hold significant influence over both sides of the conflict, in an implicit reference to the US. The proposal stressed that the use of force was not the right approach to resolve international disputes.
For their part, Russia and China presented mediation as a solution to end the war on Iran. China said it was willing to support mediation efforts or contribute to a multilateral process aimed at halting the conflict. On 14 June the Russian foreign minister said Moscow was prepared to continue working towards resolving issues related to the Iranian nuclear programme.
However, Israel did not respond to Chinese or Russian mediation efforts, particularly in the light of Beijing's support for the Palestinian cause and Moscow's condemnation of the attack on Iran. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated on 17 June: 'At the moment, we see an unwillingness on the part of Israel, at the very least, to engage in any kind of mediation or to enter the peace path at all.'
China and Russia considered multiple factors on which bases they calculated their stance on the war. First, the Israeli war on Iran should not be viewed as a bilateral conflict. Rather, it had to do with international dynamics. The US has hoped to dismantle Russian and Chinese regional alliances, which explains the two countries' determination to contain US moves in the Middle East and Africa, as well as neutralise its role in Asia.
Second, while Russia and China condemn the US targeting of Iranian nuclear reactors, they fear supplying weapons to Iran at this stage could encourage Tehran to prolong the war with Israel. This could negatively impact Russian and Chinese interests in the region. Moreover, Moscow and Beijing believe that direct military support for Iran could accelerate the US involvement in a direct war on Iran, thereby intensifying regional escalation.
In addition, the continuation of the Israeli war on Iran could drive energy prices to skyrocket. As China is heavily dependent on foreign energy supplies, this would lead to a rise in its energy import bill and, consequently, higher domestic energy prices. Additionally, any Russian intervention in support of Tehran could prompt the US and European powers to impose further sanctions on Russia's energy sector.
China and Russia are not currently seeking to escalate tensions with the US. Beijing wants to resolve the issue of the tariffs the Trump administration imposed on China's exports to the US, while Moscow wants to neutralise Washington's role in the Ukrainian crisis.
Beijing and Moscow are carefully calculating their stances on the war on Iran because direct involvement in the conflict could risk drawing them into a direct confrontation with the US.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 26 June, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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