‘Multi-nationals are going to cannibalise restaurants and bars in Northern Ireland'

Belfast Telegraph

29-04-2025

Increased costs are leading to closures, reduced opening hours, limited investment, more expensive and reformulated menus, which will result in a transformed food market, they suggest. 'Multi-nationals are going to cannibalise the business,' says Eamon McCusker, the owner of two Chubby Cherub restaurants and an AMPM in Belfast. 'Hospitality has been one of the best things we've always had to offer. We have such a diverse range of product and people and independent venues. We are going to end up with a soulless hospitality offering within the city.'
In April, employer National Insurance (NI) payments increased from 13.8% to 15%, with the lower threshold on salary payments falling from £9,100 a year to £5,000. At the same time, the minimum wage for workers aged over 21 rose from £11.44 to £12.21. And 2025 was 'always going to be a difficult year' for hospitality employers, Eamon says, but the incremental increase in the price of supplier products has created a 'fear factor' within the industry.
Beef price hikes are particularly noticeable, says Colin Neill of Hospitality Ulster. 'More farmers seem to be getting out of beef production. Therefore, the price is going up.' Eamon McCusker says he would need to sell steak at his restaurants 'at £46 or £48 to make the margin we made five years ago.
'We've tried to keep our steak within a reachable price range but it's getting to the stage where we're going to have to think, 'Can we keep this on the menu?'' A few weeks ago, Lazy Claire Patisserie, a French-style bakery in Belfast posted a list of increases in its input costs. T45 (strong) flour, which was 86p per kilo in 2021, now costs £1.52 (a 77% increase). Dark chocolate has risen £7 to £10.22 across the same period. Caster sugar is up to £1.16 per kilo from 84p in 2021. Dairy has seen the biggest leap at all for the patisserie: from £3.88 per kilo in 2021 to £7.80 today: a 101% increase.
'Across the board, everything has gone up,' says Daniel Duckett, chef and owner at Lazy Claire. 'The only thing that I can think of that's remained fairly stable is vanilla… but it was already quite expensive.' Jonny Taylor, of Shed Bistro on Belfast's Ormeau Road and Saga on the Malone Road, spends much of his week juggling supplier costs: 'You have to be playing suppliers off against each other constantly. They're all increasing prices.'
Supplier price increases combine with energy costs, business rates and labour cost increases, to create a perfect storm for food hospitality businesses. Hospitality differs from other industries and sectors in that it is labour intensive and can't automate. Hospitality Ulster says that larger operators are freezing recruitment in order to be more efficient; others are cutting staff. Eamon McCusker, who employs 107 staff across his outlets, says he will have to find an extra £270,000 in 2025 to cover additional costs. 'Ten years ago, staff costs were somewhere between 25% and 30%. That would have been a standard for the industry. Today standard costs are between 35% and 40%. Some people are operating staff costs around 50%.'
One inevitable result has been a rise in prices that customers are experiencing at check-out. 'Most of my industry colleagues have put their prices up by 10% and 60% on beverage just to stay still. The kind of environment that we're all working within at the moment is pretty scary to be honest,' says Eamon McCusker. Lazy Claire Patisserie has increased their coffee from £3.30 to £3.60. 'We got notified by our coffee supplier that prices would be going up 19% at the start of April so all of our coffee prices have gone up,' says Daniel Duckett. 'But we've traditionally been cheaper than the market for coffee.'
Shed Bistro and Saga have also increased some of their prices, although Jonny Taylor is frustrated when people compare the price of their steaks to supermarkets. 'You are paying for the person who cooks it, the person who takes the order; the person who cleans up after you...'
Food hospitality businesses are conscious that Northern Ireland was one of the worst regions hit by the cost of living crisis. Consumers in the region have a low discretionary disposable income spend, so business owners tread carefully around price increases. Honesty and transparency appears to work at Lazy Claire Patisserie. Daniel Duckett received 'supportive' comments from customers following his Instagram post about supplier price hikes. 'When you break it down for them, they really appreciate that,' he says. 'If we engage with the customer, let them know what's going on and then they will understand.'
Businesses are exploring other ways to cover costs. Last year, Jonny Taylor rebranded restaurant Blank, a casual fine-dining experience, to Saga: 'It's still a nice restaurant but it's not anywhere near as fine dining as it was. [Blank] just wasn't sustainable.' Jonny has introduced a burger night at Shed for a more affordable menu. Daniel Duckett reformulated his menu, taking out one specific pastry (a pecan tart) that was squeezing his margins. Eamon McCusker removed a number of products from the menu at his outlets.
Another solution is to reduce working hours. Lazy Claire Patisserie is closed on Monday and Tuesday. Colin Neill of Hospitality Ulster says some business operators have been forced to cut down to a four-day week. 'If you're in Belfast on a Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and there's nobody open or limited choice it has an impact on the wider tourism product.' Some businesses are being forced to stop reinvestment which can be a death knell. If you're not growing, you're dying,' says Eamon McCusker.
Hospitality Ulster is calling for parity of competition between Northern Ireland and other parts of the UK. In England, businesses have a 75% discount on business rates bills; in Wales this figure is 40%. The 13.5% hospitality VAT in the Republic of Ireland, soon to be reduced to 9%, is thought to put NI (where the rate is 20%) at a further disadvantage.
Hospitality Ulster is lobbying Westminster for a similar reduction: 'We have called on our Finance Minister to join us in a joint campaign to meet with the Chancellor around reduced VAT. There' is support in England, Scotland, Wales for Northern Ireland for a VAT reduction pilot scheme. So it could be done here in a closed test for a few years. There are ongoing plans for Northern Ireland to be a special economic zone - and a VAT test could be part of that.'
The alternative, believe local hospitality business leaders, will be an underwhelming food and drink hospitality offering. 'The only places that'll be left will be the big soulless corporations with generic menus. No creativity. No invention. No nothing,' says Jonny Taylor. Eamon McCusker called for a working group 'to make real, proper changes with the help of the Executive. We need momentum. There's too much talk and too much time being wasted.'