Iran-Israel conflict: Donald Trump's caution on joining Israel airstrikes rooted in fears of creating 'another Libya'
President Donald Trump's recent hesitation to authorise military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities is rooted in a deep-seated concern: the risk of plunging Iran into chaos reminiscent of Libya's collapse after the 2011 NATO intervention.
As per a New York Post report citing multiple administration insiders, Trump has repeatedly cited the North African nation's descent into anarchy as a cautionary tale, shaping his approach to the escalating crisis with Iran.
The Libya precedent: A decade of anarchy
Libya's trajectory after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi stands as a stark warning in Trump's mind, as per the report.
In 2011, following a NATO-led bombing campaign—supported by the United States—the long-standing dictator was overthrown.
Rather than ushering in stability, Gaddafi's ouster triggered a prolonged period of civil war, political fragmentation, and violence. The country has since splintered into rival governments and militias, with no unified authority and ongoing conflict between factions based in Tripoli and the east.
Trump's frequent references to Libya are twofold, sources said: first, the chaos that ensued after Gaddafi's removal; second, the way the intervention complicated future negotiations with other adversarial states, such as North Korea and Iran.
"He doesn't want it to turn into Libya," one insider said, underscoring Trump's reluctance to repeat what he sees as a costly and destabilising precedent.
A two-week breather
In the wake of Israel's recent preemptive airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, Trump has opted to delay any US involvement for up to two weeks.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed the president's wait-and-see approach, citing the "substantial chance of negotiations" with Iran that may or may not materialize in the near future.
Iran's foreign minister is expected to meet with European counterparts in Geneva, while Trump's special envoy continues backchannel communications. The administration's posture is one of cautious patience, with Trump reportedly weighing input from advisors, international leaders, and the American public.
Limited strikes, not regime change
As per the New York Post report, sources close to the administration indicate that Trump's preferred military option, if any, would be tightly focused: limited airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz using 30,000-pound "bunker buster" bombs —munitions that Israel's air force cannot deliver.
The goal would be to neutralise Iran's nuclear capabilities without toppling Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei or triggering a broader conflict.
'Libya was a much more extended kind of bombing commitment, and it ended up being regime change,' one source noted, contrasting it with Trump's current thinking. 'If the regime falls [in Iran], then it's not on Trump, because that's not the goal of his very limited strike'.
The president's reluctance to pursue regime change is also informed by the fear that a successor to Khamenei could be even more dangerous, and by a desire not to get entangled in the question of who governs Iran—a stance that resonates with his political base.
Trump's caution is further shaped by the broader regional context. The Middle East is littered with examples—Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen—where US interventions have led to protracted instability and civil war.
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