Will fall be warm or cool in Texas? What the Farmers' Almanac fall 2025 forecast says
But in the coming weeks, the Climate Prediction Center expects a shift. Much of the state is forecast to see consistently warmer weather, with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. For at least the next four weeks, above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall are likely across Texas.
The center's seasonal outlook for August through October shows continued heat, though it projects equal chances of rainfall for this time of year — a promising sign as September and October are typically wetter months in many parts of the state.
If the Farmers' Almanac is accurate, fall may bring gradual relief. Its newly released extended forecast, titled Flirty, Flurry Fall, predicts a dry and 'fair' start to the season, ending on a wetter note. The almanac has been forecasting weather — with varying accuracy — since 1818.
What is the Farmers' Almanac predicting for Texas' upcoming summer forecast?
"As summer fades and the crispness of autumn settles in, Fall 2025 is shaping up to be a season of contrasts across the United States," the almanac states. "From early chills in the North to lingering warmth in the South, and from stormy skies to tranquil stretches, this fall will keep us on our toes."
The almanac's 200-year-old formula — based on mathematical and astronomical patterns — predicts a 'fair, dry start' to fall with a 'wet finish' in the South Central, which includes Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arkansas and Louisiana.
Throughout the season, the coldest conditions are expected to settle over the North Central states and the interior Northeast, especially from late October into November. In contrast, the Southeast and Southwest are forecast to experience milder, more stable weather — though not without the occasional storm.
The wettest regions this fall will likely include the Great Lakes, Northeast, and parts of the Southeast, while the driest conditions are expected across the Southwest and portions of the West Coast, according to the almanac.
Already counting down to spooky season? The almanac forecasts 'wet, then clearing skies' from Oct. 28–31 — so you might want to keep an umbrella or raincoat handy this Halloween, just in case.
When do temperatures normally cool down in Texas?
Across most of Texas, temperatures finally begin to cool in October, with average highs finally dipping below the triple-digit mark.
Here's a look at the earliest, latest and average last 100-degree day recorded across the state since 1940, according to data from the National Weather Service.
Austin
Earliest: June 13 (1942)
Latest: Oct. 13 (2024)
Average: Aug. 24
Amarillo
Earliest: June 14 (2004)
Latest: Sept. 19 (2024)
Average: Aug. 5
Dallas-Fort Worth
Earliest: July 13 (2004)
Latest: Oct. 3 (1951)
Average: Aug. 29
El Paso
Earliest: June 18 (1941)
Latest: Sept. 27 (2024)
Average: Aug. 11
Houston
Earliest: June 13 (2006)
Latest: Sept. 27 (2005)
Average: Aug. 15
Lubbock
Earliest: May 11 (1962)
Latest: Oct. 3 (2000)
Average: Aug. 2
Midland-Odessa
Earliest: June 9 (1988)
Latest: Oct. 8 (1979)
Average: Aug. 21
San Antonio
Earliest: July 4 (1970)
Latest: Oct. 4 (2023)
Average: Aug. 26
Tyler
Earliest: July 12 (1955)
Latest: Sept. 26 (2005)
Average: Aug. 21
Waco
Earliest: July 22 (1971)
Latest: Oct. 15 (2024)
Average: Aug. 31
Wichita Falls
Earliest: June 27 (1950)
Latest: Oct. 17 (1972)
Average: Sept. 5
This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: When will Texas start to cool? What the Farmers' Almanac says for fall
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