SGA or Haliburton? J-Dub or Siakam? Here are 10 most important players in 2025 NBA Finals
SGA was the No. 11 pick in the 2018 NBA draft. Haliburton was picked 12th in 2020.
SGA played his rookie season with the Clippers before getting flipped to the Thunder in the Paul George trade — the second Paul George trade that spawned these NBA Finals. Haliburton played parts of two seasons for the Kings before he was traded to the Pacers for Domantas Sabonis.
SGA is the league's MVP. Haliburton has made back-to-back All-NBA teams.
The two star guards are the engines behind the Thunder and Pacers, two teams that meet at 8:30 p.m. Thursday in Oklahoma City in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
NBA Finals predictions: Indy, OKC writers make their championship picks
Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player in the series, but he might not be the most important player. There's a difference.
Here's our list of the 10 most important players who could shape the NBA Finals.
How disheartening it must be for opposing lead guards — Haliburton, in this case — to be relentlessly hounded by Lu Dort only for Dort's equally aggressive understudy to check in as soon as Dort gets winded.
Just ask Anthony Edwards about the Dort/Wallace 1-2 punch … and we haven't even gotten to Alex Caruso.
The Thunder has outscored playoff opponents by 21.6 points per 100 possessions with Wallace on the court. With Wallace off the court? OKC's net rating drops to 3.4.
The second-year Thunder guard has the best playoff net rating on the team. Scary stuff for a 21-year-old.
Holmgren is low on this list relative to his value, but as far as shaping the series? Feels like we know what to expect from the Thunder center. He's going to deter Haliburton and Co. from getting anything easy at the rim, and he'll be a floor spacer on the other end. Holmgren has room to expand his offensive game, but that's for next season and beyond.
Absent from this list is Isaiah Hartenstein, Holmgren's starting frontcourt partner. I assume Mark Daigneault will stick with Hartenstein in the starting lineup, but Daigneault hasn't been afraid to start Caruso, or even Wallace, in Hartenstein's place to open the second half.
This doesn't feel like a double-big series for the Thunder. Hartenstein might play south of 20 minutes per game, as he did last round against the Wolves.
If Hartenstein guards Myles Turner to start, does that leave Holmgren on Pascal Siakam? Not sure. Jalen Williams could get the Siakam assignment with Holmgren on either Andrew Nembhard or Aaron Nesmith, shooters Holmgren could close out hard on while still allowing him to roam around the rim.
Turner is an elite shot blocker, but the Thunder will try to find ways to lure the Pacers center into space on the defensive end.
As far as rim protectors go, Turner is about all Indiana has. If Indiana's perimeter defense doesn't hold up, Turner is going to face an onslaught of line drives from the likes of SGA and Jalen Williams.
Turner, the former Texas Longhorn, is in Year 10 with the Pacers.
Defending Haliubrton will be a team-wide task, but Dort will be the primary guy on the Pacers star.
If Dort wins that battle, or draws close to even, it's series over.
Dort isn't shooting well (30%) from 3 in these playoffs, but he's been significantly better at home, where he's always good for a clutch shot or four.
Why Caruso over Dort and Wallace? Defensive versatility.
Caruso can shut down smaller guards, but in these playoffs he's shown to be a big-man stopper as well. It was Caruso who defended Nikola Jokic by the end of the Nuggets series.
Caruso also sized up in the Timberwolves series, taking on Julius Randle at times.
In addition to his outstanding defense, Caruso is shooting 42% from 3-point range in the playoffs on more than four attempts per game.
Either Nesmith or Nembhard will draw the unenviable honor of guarding SGA. My guess is Nesmith, unless he's too hobbled by a right ankle sprain he suffered in the East finals.
Nesmith is a bit bigger than Nembhard, and he plays with a physicality that toes the line of what's allowed.
Nesmith has proven to be a clutch 3-and-D option. He's shooting 50% from 3-point range in the playoffs on 5.4 attempts per game.
Remember when these playoffs were to be a referendum on J-Dub's legitimacy as a No. 2 offensive option? Seems like a long time ago. Williams ended a rocky series against the Nuggets with a brilliant performance in Game 7.
Williams followed up with terrific individual play against the Wolves in the West finals.
All the attention on his offense distracts from what he does on the defensive end. Williams has sized up in his defensive assignments, from Aaron Gordon to Julius Randle to … Pascal Siakam?
Who's better: Jalen Williams or Pascal Siakam?
Even if they're not guarding each other, it'll be fascinating to see which has the better series.
Siakam was named MVP of the East finals. He's averaging 21.1 points per game in the playoffs on 54% shooting.
The Thunder can't allow Siakam to leak behind the defense for easy buckets on the break. Siakam killed the Knicks in that way.
Gilgeous-Alexander is four wins away from turning in one of the best seasons we've ever seen from a guard.
The MVP is averaging 29.8 points, 6.9 assists and 5.7 rebounds in the playoffs.
He's been able to get wherever he wants on the court, solving whatever defense is deployed against him.
'I'm not taking this for granted.' How Tyrese Haliburton is preparing for first NBA Finals
The Thunder can win the NBA Finals even if SGA has a B-to-B-minus series. Haliburton, meanwhile, needs to play A-plus basketball for the Pacers to have any shot at the upset.
That's why Haliburton is the most important player in the series.
Can he survive the onslaught of pressure that will be applied by Dort, Caruso and Wallace? Can he dissect a Thunder defense that's been impermeable? Can he take care of the basketball? Can he hunt his own offense and create for others?
He's going to have to do all of those things, and do them at a stunning level, for the Pacers to win this series.
Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at jmussatto@oklahoman.com.
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