The five key statistics that have kept the Houston Astros' offense afloat in 2025

New York Times

14 hours ago

HOUSTON — On Opening Day, Astros manager Joe Espada wrote a lineup with leadoff hitter Jose Altuve and cleanup man Christian Walker. Yordan Alvarez hit second and Yainer Diaz slotted fifth. It was the sort of setup that should've portended prolific offense.
Alvarez has appeared in 29 of the Astros' first 90 games. Walker and Diaz entered Sunday's series finale against the Los Angeles Dodgers sporting a sub-90 OPS+. In late April, Altuve asked out of the leadoff spot in favor of flourishing shortstop Jeremy Peña.
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Houston has weathered that injury and ineffectiveness to still possess baseball's eighth-highest OPS. Slugging remains an issue — again, Alvarez hasn't played in a game since May 2 — but the Astros have otherwise put together a top-flight offense.
No other team in the sport has a higher batting average and only six boast a higher on-base percentage. Alvarez's eventual return can cure some of what ails the Astros. So can adding balance during the upcoming trade deadline. But, after 90 games, here are the five numbers that have kept Houston's offense afloat.
The Astros awoke on Sunday sporting the platoon advantage in 28.4 percent of their plate appearances. Every other lineup in the sport had it at least 37.5 percent of the time. The major-league average is 54.2 percent, a number the Astros won't reach even if they acquire a left-handed bat at the trade deadline and welcome Alvarez back to their lineup.
Including the Astros, only five offenses have taken fewer than 50 percent of their plate appearances with a platoon advantage. Three of them — the Giants, Royals and Angels — all awoke on Sunday with an OPS+ at least four points below league average.
Houston entered its series finale against the Dodgers with a 106 OPS+, neutralizing what is supposed to be a drastic disadvantage.
Thirty-two right-handed batters entered Sunday with at least a .770 OPS against right-handed pitching. The Astros employ four of them. No other team has more than three.
Altuve and Isaac Paredes' success against right-handed pitching is part of their career-long trends. Meyers, meanwhile, had a .621 OPS and a 24.5 percent strikeout rate against righties across the 2023 and 2024 seasons. Peña posted a .659 OPS against right-handers during that same timeframe.
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Just seven right-handed hitters entered Sunday with a higher OPS against right-handed pitching than Peña's .854 mark. Meyers' .782 OPS against righties is another marked improvement amid his breakout season, one that is helping Houston's unbalanced lineup to thrive.
The number itself inspires little confidence, but consider that Houston finished last season with a minus-10 baserunning run value. Only the Angels, Blue Jays and Yankees were worse. Last year, the Yankees and Astros took an extra base on hits less than any team in the sport. The Yankees are authoring a repeat performance this season.
Houston, however, entered Sunday advancing an extra base 43 percent of the time: a seven percent increase from last year. Peña and Meyers' breakthroughs can't be overstated — they're the two fastest players on the team — but the Astros have made a concerted effort to run the bases with more aggression.
Espada preached it in spring training, perhaps cognizant of the power he lost after the team traded Kyle Tucker and allowed Alex Bregman to sign with the Red Sox. Espada added third-base coach Tony Perezchica to his staff, in part, to improve the team's baserunning.
Last season, Perezchica oversaw an Arizona Diamondbacks team that finished with a 17 baserunning run value. Houston does not have the personnel to replicate that performance, but progress with Perezchica is palpable. That the Astros have only made 19 outs on the bases — the third fewest in the sport — demonstrates their aggression isn't always reckless, either.
Lineups that are either shorthanded or short on talent can still succeed by following one of baseball's most accurate axioms: good things can happen when you put the ball in play. The Astros adopted it as a hallmark after the 2016 season and continue to prioritize contact even as their rosters evolve.
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No team in baseball has a higher contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone than Houston's. The Astros swing at 68 percent of the pitches they see in the strike zone — the fifth highest in the sport — accentuating how sound their decision-making can be.
A 29.6 percent chase rate can contradict that statement. Only three teams have a higher one. View both numbers and it becomes clear how crucial it is for Houston to stay inside the strike zone.
The problem? The Astros are seeing the third-fewest in-zone pitches in baseball, an ode from opponents that are aware of Houston's ability to put them in play.
Houston's lineup hammers fastballs, a fact opponents are beginning to respect. No offense in baseball has a higher batting average against all fastballs — four-seamers, two-seamers and cutters — than the Astros' .291 mark.
As a result, Houston's lineup is seeing just 53.6 percent fastballs. Only five teams are seeing fewer. Fewer fastballs means a higher percentage of secondary pitches and spin, patterns that can become easy to predict, but still difficult to hit.
The Astros entered Sunday seeing breaking balls 34.1 percent of the time. Just three teams see spin more often — the Angels, Phillies and Diamondbacks — but none of them have been as successful handling the secondary stuff. The Angels, for example, are hitting .191 against the major-league high 34.4 percent of breaking balls they see.
The Astros' .232 batting average against breaking balls is the eighth highest in baseball, but only one team ahead of them — the Dodgers — is seeing spin at higher than a 31.9 percent clip. Remember, Houston is seeing it 34.1 percent of the time.
Unsurprisingly, teams are attacking the Astros' free-swingers and fledgling players with spin. Meyers, Yainer Diaz and Cam Smith all entered Sunday seeing at least 35 percent breaking balls. Meyers, who hit .163 against spin last season, has increased his average to .223. Smith has the same batting average, which is more than adequate for a rookie.
Diaz's has dropped from .293 last season to .207 through the first 89 games of this one, but his backup is helping to pick up the slack. Victor Caratini crushed a sweeper for a grand slam during Friday's 18-1 destruction of the Dodgers, continuing a renaissance Houston needed.
Victor Caratini hit .234 against breaking balls last season. His recent grand slam upped his average to .302 in this season.
Solving all spin is crucial for any lineup, but for one as right-handed as Houston's, holding its own against sliders is crucial. Sliders are a right-handed pitcher's preferred putaway pitch against a right-handed hitter.
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Houston leads the major leagues in right-handed plate appearances, so it is no surprise that its lineup is seeing the second-most sliders of any offense in baseball. Only the Los Angeles Angels are seeing more — and are slashing a meager .192/.243/.369 against them.
The Astros, meanwhile, entered Sunday with baseball's fourth-highest slugging percentage against sliders. No team has more hits off of sliders — then again, few get as many opportunities — but Houston's performance against the pitch can't be overstated.
Peña's improvement at recognizing sliders has been chronicled. He's one of six Astros who entered Sunday hitting at least .247 while seeing at least 700 sliders — success that must be maintained for however long the lineup remains so right-handed.
(Photo of Christian Walker and Yanier Diaz celebrating: Harry How / Getty Images)