Opinion - Mexico's judicial election will imperil its relationship with the US
Mexico elected more than 2,600 judges and magistrates, but there is concern that major drug cartels will take advantage of these changes to move from partial influence to direct intervention in the various branches of the judiciary. Organized crime will not only influence judges but will position their own players in key areas of power.
Candidates running for judicial office included Joaquín 'El Chapo' Guzmán's lawyer, a methamphetamine trafficker, an arms smuggler, an alleged murderer of a journalist and a former defender of the Zetas cartel.
The 'hugs not bullets' policy of former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, judicial corruption and the economic power of the drug cartels had created an ecosystem conducive to impunity. Despite this complex and challenging environment, Mexico maintained a minimum separation of powers, checks and balances, certain institutional norms and academic requirements for appointing judicial authorities. This was laid to rest with Sunday's election.
Mexico has gone from judicial authorities with master's and doctoral degrees to small-time lawyers with barely five years of experience and a few letters of recommendation. The pre-selection of candidates was controlled by the ruling party's raffles, and the final selection was determined by an accordion brochure that indicated how and for whom to vote.
Mexico won't become the most democratic country in the world, as President Claudia Sheinbaum promised. It will not have a judicial model like that of Switzerland or the U.S., where some judges are elected by popular vote. Mexico will be closer to the Bolivian model, with elections that have turned the judiciary into a political weapon of incumbent rulers and the powerful drug cartels.
In 2009, Bolivia decided to push for constitutional reform under the leadership of President Evo Morales. In 2011, the country elected most of its judicial authorities by popular vote. There was much confusion, little information, uninterested voters, incompetent candidates and a president who sought to lay the groundwork to keep himself in power in perpetuity. It was a total disaster.
In Mexico, judicial reform does not aim to give more power to the people but to the party. López Obrador saw many of his projects and promises interrupted due to the checks and balances of the judiciary. He knew that to change the system in his favor, he needed to have total control. Although López Obrador was unable to achieve his aspiration, he set the foundation and the strategy to achieve his mission, which was fulfilled with the arrival of Sheinbaum, leading to last Sunday's disastrous vote.
Mexico's judicial elections also weaken and jeopardize the trade relationship with the U.S. Powerful political and economic groups will be able to pursue legal action against companies and businesspeople operating in the country. Legal security and predictability, essential for doing business, have been shattered.
Those elected this weekend will serve for nine and 12 years. This means that although the maneuvers that led to the destruction of the judiciary took mere months, the consequences of these changes on security, investment and trade will prevail for many years.
The U.S. will have to take preventive measures and redouble diplomatic, commercial and security efforts to successfully deal with its main trading partner. It will not be an easy task.
Fortunately, the Trump administration does not hesitate or evade challenges. The policy of 'peace through strength' remains the best means to successfully face the new commercial and security challenges in Mexico.
Arturo McFields is an exiled journalist, former Nicaraguan ambassador to the Organization of American States, and a former member of the Norwegian Peace Corps. He is an alumnus of the National Defense University's Security and Defense Seminar and the Harvard Leadership course.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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