Fuel prices may rise due to Iran
Instability in the middle east often raises the question of what could happen to fuel prices. AA principal policy advisor Terry Collins spoke to Alexa Cook.
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Why haven't KiwiSaver warnings proved true?
It was predicted the share market would be in turmoil after the United States attacked Iran's nuclear sites. (File photo) Photo: 123RF Warnings of share market turmoil hitting KiwiSaver balances have so far proved too pessimistic. When the United States attacked Iran's nuclear sites at the weekend, it prompted predictions oil prices could soar and financial markets could be shaken. But so far, the response from both has been muted. Dean Anderson, founder of Kernel Wealth, said the S&P World Index was now flat year-to-date and had recovered from the April lows. He said this index served as a good benchmark for the investments held in many balanced through to high growth KiwiSaver funds. "However, 2025 has been a bumpy ride, with markets tested by a number of significant events. Despite the volatility, markets are back to putting more weight on actual results and economic fundamentals, rather than knee-jerk reactions to every headline. "The post-US election 'Trump Bump' quickly gave way to a downturn following sweeping tariff announcements, but a rebound has since taken hold, with more measured responses - including recent major geopolitical events in the Middle East. "Overall, markets seem to be factoring in the fortunate, arguably good luck, in the off-ramps we've seen from major risks, such as Trump's pullback on tariffs and signs that Middle East conflicts may be peaking without escalating into a very serious broader engagement." Anderson said businesses were zeroing in on what they could control and sectors like technology continued to post solid results. "There's no denying that the world feels more on edge, with risks that could materialise overnight through a single tweet or unexpected event," Anderson said. Harry Smith, international equities portfolio manager at Fisher Funds, said it was not uncommon to see a limited response to geopolitical issues. "Looking at Israel and Iran, Israel is only 0.3 percent of global equity markets in terms of their market capitalisation and Iran doesn't even really feature. So in terms of global markets the region is quite small. "The US share market, which is around 60 to 70 percent of global share markets in terms of market capitalisation, was up really strongly because the Federal Reserve came out and suggested the central bank might lower interest rates earlier than the market was expecting. He said a stronger driver of share market performance recently had been the growth of artificial intelligence. "What's happening in Israel and Iran, as sad as it is, doesn't really impact the earnings of these massive tech companies." He said the Ukraine conflict was more of a concern to markets because Ukraine had a key role as a supplier of agriculture to the world and Russia as a source of natural gas. "Higher natural gas prices meant high energy prices for Europe and European companies which impacted the consumer spending or earnings of those companies." If there was more movement in oil prices, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, that would have more of an impact because oil was a significant factor driving things like discretionary spending and costs for business. "What happened next would depend on how the situation developed," Smith said. "A lot has happened in the past 24 hours or past 48 hours and a lot can happen in the next 24." Smith said KiwiSaver members were calmer about market changes than they might have been in the past. "I quite often wonder whether with Covid and the reaction of global share markets during 2020, whether KiwiSaver holders learned a lot during that period, given there was such a sharp decrease in asset prices then such a rapid increase on the other side. "The fall and then back up to the peak wasn't much more than 30 to 40 days. I think a lot of people did switch during that time and crystallised their losses." Anderson said diversified portfolios and long-term strategies had proved to be vital shields against volatility over the long term. "Protecting retirement savings. Investors should concentrate on controllable factors, maintain a big-picture outlook, and a bit of cautious optimism always helps keep the emotions in check." Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
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Trump announces Israel-Iran ceasefire
By Steve Holland, Andrew Mills and Parisa Hafezi , Reuters US President Donald Trump. Photo: CHIP SOMODEVILLA / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP US President Donald Trump says a "complete and total" ceasefire between Israel and Iran will go into force with a view to ending the 12-day conflict between the two nations, moments after both sides threatened new attacks. While an Iranian official confirmed that Tehran had agreed to a ceasefire, there was no immediate comment yet from Israel. A senior White House official said Israel had agreed so long as Iran did not launch further attacks and that Trump brokered the deal in a call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump appeared to suggest that Israel and Iran would have some time to complete any missions that were underway, at which point the ceasefire would begin in a staged process. "On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, 'THE 12 DAY WAR'," he wrote on his Truth Social site. Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani secured Tehran's agreement during a call with Iranian officials, an official briefed on the negotiations told Reuters on Tuesday (US Time). Trump told Qatar's emir that Israel had agreed to the ceasefire, according to the official. Neither Iran's UN mission nor the Israeli embassy in Washington immediately responded to separate requests for comment from Reuters. Hours earlier, three Israeli officials had signalled Israel was looking to wrap up its campaign in Iran soon and had passed the message on to the United States. Netanyahu had told government ministers whose discussions ended early on Tuesday (US Time) not to speak publicly, Israel's Channel 12 television reported. S&P 500 futures rose 0.4 percent late on Monday, suggesting traders expect the US stock market to open with gains on Tuesday (US Time). US crude futures fell in early Asian trading hours on Tuesday (US Time) to their lowest level in more than a week after Trump said a ceasefire had been agreed, relieving worries of supply disruption in the region. This UGC image posted on social media on 23 June 2025 shows a plume of smoke billowing after Israeli strikes in Tehran the same day. Photo: AFP Photo / UGC / Anonymous There did not appear to be calm yet in the region. The Israeli military issued two evacuation warnings in less than two hours to residents of areas in the Iranian capital Tehran, one late on Monday and one early on Tuesday (US Time). Israeli Army radio reported early on Tuesday (US Time) that alarms were activated in the southern Golan Heights area due to fears of hostile aircraft intrusion. Earlier on Monday (US Time), Trump said he would encourage Israel to proceed towards peace after dismissing Iran's attack on an American air base that caused no injuries and thanking Tehran for the early notice of the strikes. Iran's attack came after US bombers dropped 30,000-pound bunker-busters on Iranian underground nuclear facilities at the weekend, joining Israel's air war against Iran in a conflict that has entered its 12th day. Much of Tehran's population of 10 million has fled after days of bombing. The Trump administration maintains that its aim was solely to destroy Iran's nuclear programme , not to open a wider war. But in a social media post on Sunday (US Time), Trump spoke of toppling the hardline clerical rulers who have been Washington's principal foes in the Middle East since Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution. Israel, however, had made clear that its strikes on Evin prison - a notorious jail for housing political prisoners - and other targets in Tehran were intended to hit the Iranian ruling apparatus broadly, and its ability to sustain power. - Reuters
