China's June new yuan loans beat forecast after stimulus and trade truce
Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted new yuan loans would reach 1.8 trillion yuan in June after 620 billion yuan in May. In the event, it also surpassed last June's 2.13 trillion yuan.
The People's Bank of China does not provide monthly breakdowns, but Reuters calculated the June figure by comparing January-June data with the January-May figure.
Annual growth of outstanding total social financing (TSF), a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, rose to 8.9% last month, its highest since February 2024, from 8.7% in May.
"The acceleration in broad credit growth last month, to a 16-month high, is a positive sign for the outlook and reduces the risk of a sharp deceleration in near-term economic activity," Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, said in a note.
"But this tailwind looks set to fade over the rest of the year as government bond issuance, the main driver of the pick-up, starts to slow again."
New yuan loans totalled 12.92 trillion yuan for the first half of the year, the PBOC data showed, down from 13.27 trillion yuan in the same period last year.
Household loans rose significantly to 597.6 billion yuan in June from 54 billion yuan in May, according to Reuters calculations. Corporate loans rose to 1.77 trillion yuan from 530 billion yuan in May.
A prolonged property slump and rising job insecurity have made borrowers wary of taking on new debt, despite government efforts to boost consumption and revive growth.
The central bank unveiled a raft of stimulus measures in May to counter the impact of U.S. tariffs and gained some relief after striking a 90-day trade truce with Washington, followed by a framework agreement signed in London in June.
PBOC deputy governor Zou Lan, speaking at a news conference on Monday, pledged to keep an "appropriately loose" monetary policy, with adjustments to its pace and intensity as needed to support domestic demand and help hit the annual growth target.
The PBOC is expected to steadily cut interest rates and inject more liquidity, while expectations are also rising that China will accelerate supply-side reforms to curb industrial overcapacity and explore new ways to spur consumption.
The Financial News, a PBOC publication, said in a commentary that stronger policies to boost domestic demand and rein in excessive competition would help foster a healthier supply-demand cycle and support price recovery.
Monday's data also showed June's outstanding yuan loans were up 7.1% from a year earlier, the same pace as in May, which was a record low. Analysts had expected 7.0% growth.
Annual growth in broad M2 money supply accelerated to 8.3% in June - a 15-month high - beating analysts' forecast of 8.1%, and up from 7.9% in May. Meanwhile, the narrower M1 measure rose 4.6% year-on-year, a sharp rebound from 2.3% in May.
China is set to release second-quarter GDP data on Tuesday. Growth is expected to have slowed because of the trade tensions, reinforcing expectations of further stimulus measures.
($1 = 7.1688 Chinese yuan renminbi)
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