Artificial intelligence among new tech shaping forecasts during 2025 hurricane season
MIAMI – In light of hurricane season starting this weekend, NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) provided a sneak peek into how the agency has updated its approach to forecasting hurricanes, particularly by using new technology.
NHC Director Michael Brennan told FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross on Friday that some of those changes include upgrading NOAA's hurricane analysis and forecast system hurricane models this summer.
They will also apply updates to how his team forecasts rapid intensification, which is when a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds increase by at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period. Brennan said progress has been made in this field since Katrina hit in August 2005, allowing forecasters to improve their understanding of how intensity works.
Another update to the NHC's forecasting includes using a new Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, or GOES. Brennan noted how the satellite, which has been parked over the Atlantic and the eastern U.S., is already being used as the primary tool for monitoring the tropics, or the area of the Atlantic where tropical storms form.
Noaa's Goes-19 Weather Satellite Begins Operations In Orbit
Perhaps one of the newest types of technology the NHC will use in developing its forecasts is artificial intelligence (AI). Traditionally, some of the more accurate forecasts are developed by taking the so-called "averages" of multiple weather models. This year, meteorologists at the NHC will begin to test models produced by AI in the context of traditional modeling when they build their forecasts.
"They're (AI) not going to be part of our official sort of consensus or blended models this year, but we may make some additional ones on the side that we're going to test out and see how they do and perform," Brennan said.
He noted how AI might especially show a lot of promise when it comes to forecasting the path of a hurricane. However, he looks at that potential with a keen eye.
"It's important for us to look at it ourselves, do our own evaluation and see how it fits in," he said.
NOAA said this hurricane season is expected to see 13-19 named storms, or storms with maximum sustained winds strong enough to classify them as either tropical storms or hurricanes. In fact, NOAA predicts that 6-10 of those named storms will be hurricanes, and about half of those are expected to become major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
FOX Weather will premiere two specials on the FOX Weather channel and FOX Weather app as the U.S. kicks off hurricane season.
The first special will be "Hurricane HQ: Eye on the Season," which will air on Sunday at noon ET. In this special, FOX Weather Meteorologist Ian Oliver revisits hard-hit communities from last year's deadly storms, while Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross breaks down the driving forces behind the season ahead.
On Monday at 9 a.m. ET, Norcross will answer hurricane questions live during a unique, interactive hourlong special called "Hurricane HQ&A with Bryan Norcross."
How To Watch Fox Weather
In addition to the two specials, FOX Weather will also kick off the official start of the 2025 hurricane season with "Hurricane HQ Week." The network's meteorologists will share the latest predictions, heartfelt stories of survival and talk with those still rebuilding from last year's destructive storms.
You can watch FOX Weather on your favorite platform or streaming device and on your FOX Weather app.Original article source: Artificial intelligence among new tech shaping forecasts during 2025 hurricane season
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