Black Oil And Green Energy In Mega Bill Will Boost Oil But Cost U.S.

Forbes

8 hours ago

Workers extracting oil in the Permian Basin in Midland, Texas.
Energy policy in the U.S. has changed dramatically since OBBBA (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) has been signed into law. This will affect energy markets significantly. In some cases, tax credits will disappear sooner. In other cases, imports from countries like China may be restricted. The uncertainty of U.S. policies from one four-year government to the next will destabilize some 20-30 year deals. Will the oil and gas industry thrive or dive? A survey of key issues provides some answers.
An insightful assessment of policy changes by the OBBBA has been documented by Wood Mackenzie. Let's take a look at the consequences, especially for the oil and gas industry.
Headwinds for Renewable Energies
The applicable tax credits are curtailed for wind and solar projects. 10-year installations could fall by 17% for solar and 20% for wind. It might be worse because compliance restrictions may hurt Chinese-supported manufacturers.
Handicapping certain green projects in this way is hard to understand because in the U.S. over 90% of new energy projects in 2023 and 2024 was generated by solar, wind, and batteries. At-risk projects could amount to several hundred GW (gigawatts), with the largest of such projects in California, Texas, and central U.S.
The biggest losses may be, first, soaring electricity costs in the U.S., because renewables have dominated new sources of power in the last couple of years. The second loss is the U.S. ignoring China's surging solar and battery energy storage systems (BESS) that will reliably service their AI data center programs—meaning the U.S. may lose the AI race.
Could green projects that lost their tax credits go ahead to completion? They might, but it's obvious this would translate to higher cost of electricity for consumers. The only commercially proven competitor is gas-fired power plants, which are facing serious delays, and they cost more.
Battery Energy Storage
Battery energy storage systems are booming in Australia, where renewable electricity in one state is running at 75% of total. The U.S. and the rest of the world are catching up on the use of BESS to stabilize solar and wind power. China is bidding record low prices for new BESS, which is the key to making solar PV and wind a dispatchable source of electricity—at the lowest price for new build systems.
The OBBBA will maintain tax credits through 2030, which is good because data centers for AI and other interests will require a massive increase in electricity in the U.S., starting now. But BESS still faces Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions that could prevent the U.S. from buying Chinese battery cells.
Electric Vehicles Lose Tax Credits Soon
The best time to buy an EV is now, because tax incentives run out on September 30, 2025 (they would have lasted another seven years under the previous administration). Wood Mackenzie predict that the market for EVs will drop in 2030 from 23% to 18%. Companies that sell EVs made in the U.S., such as Tesla, will suffer, and U.S. greenhouse gas emissions will remain higher.
Dropping the tax credit on EVs is one way the Trump administration is supporting the oil and gas industry, when crude oil is down to $60. Despite this, demand for crude oil will eventually fall as cars and trucks switch to EVs and gasoline/diesel usage drops. Some observers are predicting peak oil is imminent in the mighty Permian basin, and in the whole world by 2030. After peak oil, the demand for crude falls, albeit slowly.
Emerging Technologies Show A Mix Of Results
Nuclear and geothermal retain the support provided by the previous Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives, with a couple of upgrades. First, funding for small nuclear reactors (SMR) will be revised. This will be necessary since recent reports show that SMRs, now and through 2030, are significantly more expensive than renewable energies. Second, annual lease sales have been mandated by the OBBBA, and this should accelerate investments in next-gen geothermal energy.
But with tax credits based on utility scale projects, solar PV plus BESS and wind plus BESS are cheaper than geothermal with tax credits, and much cheaper than nuclear (and gas-fired or coal-powered units). Since the OBBBA handicaps wind and solar in the energy race, electricity costs from nuclear and geothermal will move upwards.
Carbon Capture And Storage (CCUS)
This technique gets a boost because it's connected to oil production. Previously there were two levels of tax credits: a higher level if injection of greenhouse gases like CO2 was not used for enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and a lower level if it was. The OBBBA has raised the lower level to the higher level, which benefits the oil and gas industry. In essence the government pays the oil industry more to bury CO2 emissions, that come from burning oil, in a process that produces more oil to be burned. It's a win for oil production, but not for greenhouse gas emissions.
The OBBBA will benefit a company like ExxonMobil that already has about 20 working CCUS injection projects.
Big Win For Upstream Sector
The survey report listed several direct benefits of OBBBA to the oil and gas industry, including the following. First, leasing and royalty issues are being changed. There will be quarterly lease sales mandated in nine western states. Also, royalty rates will be reduced from 16.7% to 12.5%. But are oil companies prepared to drill more wells when the price of oil hovers above $60 per barrel? Since the drop on June 24, WTI prices have risen slowly from $64 to $68. But companies have been in a period of increasing capex efficiency, and are wary of starting new drilling programs. A recent survey by the Dallas Federal Reserve indicated a general tightening due to oil price, cost of steel pipes, tariff uncertainty, and produced water woes in the Permian basin.
Second is the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which as expected will be opened to competitive leasing.
Third is tax benefits for oil and gas companies. The new bill allows full deduction of intangible drilling costs, and extends a bonus depreciation (described as massive) to production real property through 2031.
What does all this mean? There are direct policy benefits for the oil and gas industry, as discussed above, and these are expected from a 'drill, baby, drill' mantra. But the indirect benefits seem to reflect a posture against green energy, related to unbelief in climate change, and these lead to support for inefficient energy alternatives like nuclear and geothermal and gas-fired turbines. This policy will lead to more expensive electricity in the U.S. and a serious delay in the race against China for AI dominance.