Trump and Newsom have made competing claims about California gas prices. We checked the facts.

CBS News

2 days ago

Californians are bracing for higher gas prices following an increase to the gas excise tax and regulatory changes to the state's fuel standards that went into effect on July 1. In response, Gov. Gavin Newsom's office published a series of fact checks on its website, aimed at countering what the governor has called a "concerted misinformation campaign" about the state's fuel costs.
The effort comes as President Trump continues to blame California's environmental regulations and taxes for what he has described as the state's exorbitant gas prices.
CBS News examined claims from the governor and president about the state's gas prices. Mr. Trump cited incorrect figures, and while Newsom's "fact checks" mostly hold up, some omit key context or rely on outdated data. Here's a breakdown of the findings.
During a recent White House breakfast, Mr. Trump said, "Gas has gone to the lowest level in decades and you're seeing $1.99, $1.98. And I saw $1.95 at certain states," but in California, "You're at $6, $7, they just add taxes."
Both claims are false. GasBuddy, a company that tracks gas prices nationwide, told CBS News that no state has averaged between $1.95 to $1.99 per gallon at any point this year. Auto club AAA also confirmed that no state average has fallen below $2.
As for California, GasBuddy and AAA said the average price per gallon has not reached between $6 and $7 at any point this year. While individual gas stations may charge more, statewide averages have remained below that range.
California's average gas price last topped $6 in October 2023, according to GasBuddy and AAA data. The state's all-time high was $6.43 on June 16, 2022, GasBuddy data shows.
A White House spokesperson told CBS News that Mr. Trump's "energy agenda has restored gas prices to historic lows across the country," and argued that California and other blue states are seeing higher prices due to "radical climate policies and high taxes."
On the governor's website, Newsom pushes back on a University of Pennsylvania prediction that gas prices would rise by 65 cents or more "in the near term." He argues that two policy changes that took effect in July –- an annual inflation adjustment and updates to the state's fuel standard — would likely increase prices by only a few cents per gallon.
The governor is correct that the state's gas excise tax rose by 1.6 cents per gallon due to the inflation adjustment. While suppliers pay the tax, the cost is often passed on to consumers.
However, Newsom cites an expert's outdated 5- to 8-cent-per-gallon figure when estimating the impact of changes to the state's Low Carbon Fuel Standard.
That expert, Colin Murphy of the Low Carbon Fuel Policy Research Initiative at University of California, Davis, told CBS News he now estimates the impact to be around 8 to 9 cents per gallon.
Still, Murphy said, an increase as large as 65 cents would require a "jaw-droppingly implausible combination of unlikely events."
Newsom disputes disputes a prediction from one energy specialist that gas prices could spike to $8.43 per gallon in 2026 due to the closure of two key oil refineries in California. He said the projection, which he called "unscientific," comes from a May report by USC professor Michael Mische, whom Newsom says has ties to the oil industry and the government of Saudi Arabia.
Mische noted in a statement to CBS News that his models would produce lower estimates today based on current information and other refinements to his calculations. He disputed the governor's claim that he had a conflict of interest, stating that his work for the Saudi Arabian government focused on its transition away from petroleum.
Newsom cites experts from Stanford University's Institute for Economic Policy Research to support his claim that refinery closures would create negligible increases on gas prices. The analysis focused on the closure of a single refinery and found that while it would likely have little effect on gas prices, at the upper range of their estimate it could potentially raise prices by up to 15 cents per gallon.
However, Reuters reported that California officials are now attempting to find a buyer for a refinery owned by Valero in Benicia, near San Francisco, to prevent its closure. The decision highlights concerns about the potential impact it could have on the fuel supply and prices.
A July report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, a semi-independent agency under the Department of Energy, projects a 17% loss in California's refining capacity with the closures of Valero's and Phillips 66's refineries in Benicia and Los Angeles, respectively.
The agency said this supply loss won't be easily offset given the state's limited connectivity to other refinery hubs around the country. Although new state policies may help to limit price volatility, the EIA projects a "small increase" in West Coast retail gas prices next year due to the closures.