How Climate Change Could Make Homes Disappear

New York Times

08-04-2025

Good morning. It's Tuesday. Today we'll look at how one consequence of climate change, coastal flooding, could make New York's housing shortage worse. We'll also get details on testimony by Columbia University's former interim president, who told a federal task force that she did not remember the specifics of Columbia's report on antisemitism.
In a city surrounded by water, communities along the shore are vulnerable to coastal flooding brought on by climate change.
That is troubling for a city that also has a housing shortage, as New York does, because homes could be lost to rising water — 82,000 homes in the city and nearby suburbs over the next 15 years, according to a report from the Regional Plan Association, a New York-based urban research and policy group. The report also said that the New York region needed 362,000 homes today to relieve overcrowding and provide permanent housing for the shelter population. But that number will more than triple by 2040.
I asked my colleague Mihir Zaveri, who with Hilary Howard analyzed the report, to explain the findings.
What neighborhoods are at risk of flooding?
When it comes to coastal flooding and rising sea levels, the areas along the coast will, of course, be affected the most. Specifically, in New York City, we're looking at areas like the Rockaways and South Ozone Park in Queens, Canarsie in Brooklyn and neighborhoods along the southeastern shore of Staten Island. The projected losses in areas on Long Island — like the towns of Hempstead, Babylon and Islip — make up nearly half of the overall toll.
If the report is right and so many homes are lost in the next 15 years, how will that affect the housing crisis?
The New York metropolitan area already has a steep housing shortage because not enough homes have been built in the past few decades. Because so many people want to live here, the lack of housing supply leads to an increase in prices. Anything, including flood risk, that further reduces the number of homes will make the housing shortage worse.
That said, the roughly 80,000 or so homes lost to flooding is only a small fraction of a housing shortage that is already in the hundreds of thousands and could grow to a staggering 1.2 million homes when flood loss, population growth and other factors are taken into account. There are other reasons — like zoning rules, the costs of development — that play bigger roles in increasing the housing shortage.
In 2012, Hurricane Sandy flooded a significant part of Staten Island. What happened to the homes that were in its path? Were they rebuilt to withstand another storm as powerful as Sandy?
Many homes (even whole blocks) on Staten Island were destroyed during Sandy. Many of those homes had been built on wetlands that once served as a buffer against rising seawater. Hundreds of homes were not rebuilt; the state ended up buying hundreds of properties, clearing away the damaged homes and returning the land to its natural state.
Still, many homes there remain in flood zones and might be susceptible to the next big storm. According to the report, more than 1,500 Staten Island homes could be lost by 2040.
What about the plan to safeguard the entire city? And the resiliency projects on the Lower East Side? How far along are they?
Flood control projects progress notoriously slowly. A major federal plan to protect New York City from coastal storms has yet to be approved by the federal government and is at least 20 years away from completion.
Some local projects, though, are moving forward. On the Lower East Side, for example, the city has installed 'floodgates' and 'flood walls' to serve as barriers to rising floodwaters. This system should be operational by the end of next year.
One expert told you that local officials need to 'rethink what a conventional home looks like.' How will the need to adapt affect communities with single-family, stand-alone homes?
We've already seen how some homes will need to be bought out or relocated. And we know that in other places, we'll need new, costly and complicated infrastructure projects to keep rising water at bay. The report recommends shifting to denser housing, like apartment buildings, in areas that are less likely to flood. For this to happen at scale, the report says, zoning rules would need to change. If they did, very gradually, we could see fewer new homes with yards and more lots with multiple units on them instead.
The report also recommends adapting buildings so they can withstand flooding and improving sewer systems.
And what about Mayor Adams's 'City of Yes' plan? Will it allow for enough homes to cover the losses from climate change?
The 'City of Yes' plan, which loosens zoning rules within the city, could allow developers to build roughly 80,000 additional homes in New York City. That number seems superficially similar to the number the city, Westchester County and Long Island are expected to lose to flooding by 2040.
But it's important to remember that these are all hypotheticals. In fact, the 'City of Yes' initiative might reduce the city's housing needs by only around 14 percent by 2040, according to the report. The city would still be hundreds of thousands of homes short.
Expect a mostly sunny, windy day, with temperatures in the mid-40s. In the evening, there will be a mostly clear sky with blustery winds and a low around 31 degrees.
In effect until Saturday (Passover).
The latest New York news
Columbia's former president faced contentious questioning
Dr. Katrina Armstrong, the former interim president of Columbia University, told a federal task force during closed-door testimony last week that she could not remember details from the university's report on antisemitism.
She repeatedly said that the past year had been such a 'blur' that she had trouble recalling specifics and could not say what steps she had taken to fight antisemitism.
Armstrong was questioned as part of an investigation into antisemitism at Columbia. The Trump administration canceled roughly $400 million in federal funding to Columbia last month. Since then, the university has been trying to convince the administration that it is responding to White House demands to do more to fight antisemitism on campus.
The session took place several days after Armstrong had stepped down as interim president. The university initially said that she would remain chief executive of the university's medical center. But on Sunday, the medical center said that Armstrong would take a sabbatical, and the university's trustees released a statement distancing themselves from what she said in the deposition.
'This testimony does not reflect the hard work undertaken by the university to combat antisemitism, harassment and discrimination and ensure the safety and well-being of our community,' the trustees said, adding that they were 'firmly committed to resolving the issues raised by our federal regulators, with respect to discrimination, harassment and antisemitism, and implementing the policy changes and commitments' outlined in a letter from the board dated March 21. The board's co-chair was Claire Shipman until her appointment as acting president after Armstrong stepped down.
A transcript of the April 1 session with Armstrong was leaked to The Washington Free Beacon, a conservative publication, which published it on Sunday. A government official confirmed its authenticity. My colleague Sharon Otterman writes that the transcript offers a glimpse of the tensions between Columbia and representatives of the Trump administration's multiagency antisemitism task force, which is investigating at least 10 universities in an effort to root out what it sees as disturbing antisemitic activity on campuses.
Good Manners
Dear Diary:
I was strolling through Joan of Arc Park on the Upper West Side. An older woman was walking her little dog in front of me.
A young man, evidently in a hurry, passed me and cut right in front of the woman, causing her to stop short.
'Sorry,' the young man said. 'Please excuse me.'
The woman nodded and said it was fine.
'I was actually talking to your dog,' the young man said.
— Jim Pavia
Illustrated by Agnes Lee. Send submissions here and read more Metropolitan Diary here.
Glad we could get together here. See you tomorrow. — J.B.
P.S. Here's today's Mini Crossword and Spelling Bee. You can find all our puzzles here.
Stefano Montali and Ed Shanahan contributed to New York Today. You can reach the team at [e-mail].
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