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Reserve Bank slashes repo rate to 7% on cooling inflation

Reserve Bank slashes repo rate to 7% on cooling inflation

The Citizen2 days ago
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has reduced the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7%.
It comes into effect from August 1.
This decision was announced by SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago during a media briefing on July 31. It follows a unanimous vote by the bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
Kganyago said the rate cut reflects a strengthening rand, improved inflation expectations, and stable economic indicators.
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'The June Consumer Price Index print showed headline inflation at 3% and core at 2.9%, still at the bottom of our target range,' he noted.
'While food inflation has picked up – mainly due to meat prices – and fuel prices are falling at a slower pace, we still forecast inflation to average 3.3% for the year.'
The governor confirmed that inflation is expected to stabilise around the target midpoint in the coming period, with risks to the outlook now seen as balanced.
Growth expectations revised
Economic performance in early 2025 has been mixed. Although growth in the first quarter was reported at just 0.1%, in line with SARB expectations, downward revisions to previous GDP figures and possible higher US tariffs have prompted the bank to revise its 2025 growth forecast downwards.
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'Underlying growth remains weak due to ongoing supply-side constraints, especially in logistics. Business and consumer confidence also dipped during the first half of the year,' Kganyago said.
Despite this, the SARB expects gradual improvements driven by ongoing structural reforms.
Shift in inflation targeting
Kganyago announced a shift in the SARB's inflation targeting framework, with the bank now preferring inflation to settle at 3%, the bottom of the existing 3–6% target range.
'This strategic shift has helped strengthen the rand and reduce long-term borrowing costs,' he said.
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'We will now use forecasts anchored at 3% inflation in future MPC meetings and continue working with National Treasury to achieve lasting low inflation.'
Kganyago added that reduced inflation expectations would expand monetary policy space and enhance the resilience of the policy framework.
The move reflects the SARB's longer-term goal of reducing uncertainty and entrenching price stability.
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South African Reserve Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago. Image: Thobile Mathonsi / Independent Newspapers South African consumers were given some reprieve this past week as the South African Reserve Bank lowered interest rates in the country. Sarb Governor Governor Lesetja Kganyago announced that the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to cut the repurchase rate (repo rate) by 25 basis points (BPS). This means the repo rate will decrease from 7.25% to 7%, effectively taking the prime lending rate to the country to 10.50% from 10.75%. Kganyago said that the decision was unanimous by the MPC members. "For policy, as we showed last time, lower inflation allows for lower interest rates. In our Quarterly Projection Model, for a 4.5% objective, rates bottom out around 7%. By contrast, the forecast for a 3% objective has roughly five more cuts, over the medium term, taking interest rates slightly below 6%. The logic of the model is that interest rates need to fall as inflation eases, to prevent the inflation-adjusted rate, or real interest rate, from rising too much. Real rates are nonetheless temporarily higher for a 3% objective, and there is a modest growth sacrifice, which helps anchor expectations at lower levels," the Sarb Governor said on Thursday. Frank Blackmore, Lead economist at KPMG said that that the repo rate was reduced because the stronger rand helped moderate inflationary pressures. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ "Although there is some increase in food price inflation, headline inflation is seen by the bank to come in at around 3.3% for 2025. 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Words on wealth: why are interest rates still high when inflation is so low?
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Explore the complex dynamics between interest rates and inflation in South Africa, as we analyse the South African Reserve Bank's strategies and their impact on the economy. Image: Bloomberg Inflation is something we can't avoid – it's a bit like death and taxes. Traditionally, South Africa has had high inflation in comparison with developed countries, and that's a fundamental reason why the rand has steadily declined against the currencies of those countries. The Covid-19 pandemic upended that trend, and who knows what the effects of US tariffs will be. Whether we return to what now seems was a much safer, more stable world before Covid remains to be seen. As of June, our year-on-year Consumer Price Index inflation rate was 3.0%. Over the years, the SA Reserve Bank (SARB), through controlling interest rates, has done an admirable job of keeping inflation within its target range of 3-6%, for the most part. In comparison with other African countries, our inflation is low. 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Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Ad Loading When Covid hit, the economy froze and inflation plummeted, reaching a low of 2.1% in May 2020. By then, the SARB had already started slashing the repo rate – it plunged from 6.25% in February 2020 to 3.5% at the end of July, remaining at that record low for over a year. 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Finance Minister dismisses speculation on 3% inflation target
Finance Minister dismisses speculation on 3% inflation target

IOL News

timea day ago

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Finance Minister dismisses speculation on 3% inflation target

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has dismissed speculation about a formal shift to a 3% inflation target, affirming that any changes will follow due consultation with the Reserve Bank, Cabinet, and other stakeholders. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has firmly dismissed speculation that government will formally adopt a 3% inflation target, following a recent announcement by the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The SARB's MPC had indicated a preference to target inflation at 3% going forward, raising expectations that the Ministry of Finance would officially endorse this shift during the upcoming Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS). However, Godongwana made it clear that "Minister Godongwana has no plans to do this."

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