Manga ‘Predicts' Disaster in Japan, Deterring Hong Kong Travelers; Governors Decry ‘Baseless Rumors'
A Greater Bay Airlines jet from Hong Kong arrives at Yonago Airport in Sakaiminato, Tottori Prefecture, on May 29
TOTTORI — Rumors circulating in Hong Kong that 'a massive earthquake will strike Japan in July' have prompted many travelers to postpone visits, leading several Japanese airports to see cuts in flights from the city.
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) stresses that the rumor lacks any scientific basis and says there are no signs of an impending disaster during the period in question.
Only a scattering of passengers emerged from the international arrivals lobby at Yonago Airport in Sakaiminato, Tottori Prefecture, late May, after disembarking a flight from Hong Kong.
'I wanted to visit Japan before the rumor comes true,' a female passenger said.
The rumor has its roots in the 1999 Japanese manga 'Watashi ga Mita Mirai' (The future I saw). In small writing on the front cover among other messages is one saying, 'A major catastrophe will occur in March 2011.' Attention was therefore drawn to the manga after the Great East Japan Earthquake struck that very month.
In the manga's complete edition, a passage says, 'The real catastrophe will come in July 2025.' Prominent Hong Kong feng shui masters have highlighted this line, and since early this year it has spread rapidly across social media and video-sharing sites.
The Japanese government in January raised the 30-year probability of a Nankai Trough mega-quake from '70%-80%' to 'around 80%.' A new damage-projection report released in March may also have fueled the anxiety.
Greater Bay Airlines, a Hong Kong low-cost carrier operating five routes to Japan (Narita, Kansai, Sendai, Tokushima and Yonago), reduced its Sendai service in May from four round trips per week to two and cut Tokushima flights from three to two.
At an April 23 press conference, Miyagi Gov. Yoshihiro Murai called the situation grave 'because baseless social-media rumors are hurting tourism.' Tokushima Prefecture's tourism promotion office has been receiving reports from Hong Kong travel agencies of a wave of cancellations over safety concerns.
Tottori Prefecture disclosed on May 27 that it is negotiating with Greater Bay Airlines in light of the schedule cuts. The airline explained that 'reservations are stagnating due to the rumors.'
'People are losing the motivation to travel to Japan,' said Tottori Gov. Shinji Hirai. 'The impact is unavoidable.'
The JMA states it is impossible to predict the exact time and location of an earthquake. At a May 21 briefing, JMA director general Ryoichi Nomura urged the public 'not to be swayed by disaster information that specifies a date. We strongly advise against acting irrationally out of fear.'
Through the publisher, manga author Ryo Tatsuki commented, 'The attention shows heightened disaster preparedness, which I take positively.'
'Prophecies about earthquake timing have no scientific basis. If a quake happens in July, it would be pure coincidence,' said Naoya Sekiya, a professor at the University of Tokyo who is involved in disaster information research. 'Believing rumors is unwise, but it is crucial to prepare on the assumption that an earthquake can strike anywhere at any time.'
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