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The China Show 7/14/2025

The China Show 7/14/2025

Bloomberg2 days ago
'Bloomberg: The China Show' is your definitive source for news and analysis on the world's second-biggest economy. From politics and policy to tech and trends, Yvonne Man and David Ingles give global investors unique insight, delivering in-depth discussions with the newsmakers who matter. (Source: Bloomberg)
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Prices are rising again. Here's what just got more expensive
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American's weekly grocery haul and monthly electric bill may get more expensive thanks to last month's rising inflation rates, as Trump's tariffs and a volatile consumer market comes to a head. The end of June marked an additional .3% rise in the consumer price index (CPI) from May alone, adding to the 2.4% uptick in inflation that has occurred since May 2024. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the rise is reflective of all consumer items, but the areas that saw the biggest rises over the past year were shelter at an increase of 3.8% and utility gas services at 14.2% from the past year. Food and energy, which includes gas and fuel oil, saw rates rising .3% and .9% respectively over the past month. Whereas over the past year, food saw a 3% increase alone in inflated cost, and energy saw a slight .8% decrease (the sharpest uptick in four months). Energy services, which would reflect electric and utility bills, saw a 7.5% increase over the same period. Tariff ignited inflation The rising rates come as Trump's 90-day tariff pause was supposed to end this week, with notable tariffs being placed on major import countries including 25% on Japan and Korea, with Laos and Myanmar being given the highest rate at 40%. Most of which were introduced by Trump's 'tariff letters' and were given an August 1, 2025 deadline. The ban notably did not pause tariffs placed on America's biggest importer, China. The country has a current minimum 30% rate on most imported goods including technology and clothes, that seems to change by the day per the two countries' ongoing negotiations. Another slew of high-tariffs were introduced over the past week for other high import countries for the U.S. including a 50% tariff on Brazil, 35% on Canada, and 35% on the European Union. There is currently a 10% base-line tariff on any and all goods entering the U.S. market. What 'taking back economic sovereignty' may cost consumers Economists expect rising prices to continue into the summer and the rest of the year, due to the quick and staggered nature of the tariffs. What they call a 'price creep' won't be sudden, but will steadily show in consumer goods and costs during these next few months. However, what the White House's fact sheet calls a 'commitment to take back America's economic sovereignty by addressing many nonreciprocal trade relationships that threaten our economic and national security,' others worry about basic goods and necessities. Items that notably saw a rise in CPI over the past month include: Fruits and vegetables (.9% increase) Coffee (2.2% increase) Apparel (.4% increase) Rent (.2% increase) Prescription drugs (.4% increase) Items that notably saw a rise in CPI over the past year include: Eggs (27.3% increase) Shelter (3.8% increase) Electricity (5.8% increase) Natural gas (14.2% increase) Household furnishings (3.3% increase) With the Federal Reserve's target inflation rate being 2%, investors suggest that they won't likely be cutting their 'higher than usual' federal rates (currently around 4.5%), anytime this month.

What CFOs Need To Know About Policy Changes In Trump's Tax Law
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What's bigger than 97% of global economies, total defense spending around the world, and the entire cryptocurrency market? AI chip company Nvidia, writes Forbes' Derek Saul. Last week, the company's valuation hit $4 trillion—it's the first firm to cross that milestone. Nvidia's stock has taken off in the last few years, with its valuation just hitting the $1 trillion mark in 2023. Nvidia owns a whopping 92% of the market for datacenter GPU chips, according to an IoT Analytics report published in January. The company's stock kept on climbing Tuesday morning, hitting a record high with a more than 4% spike after the company said the Trump Administration reversed its decision to ban exports of Nvidia's H20 chip to China. Sale of the chips, which were designed specifically for the Chinese market and had been a top seller for Nvidia, were banned in April. But this growth is about much more than Nvidia, writes Forbes contributor Steven Wolfe Pereira. After all, Nvidia is a hardware company. Investing in hardware is an important first step to developing better and more impactful AI systems, but everything in AI is built on top of it. Nvidia's growth shows that right now is the best time for companies in all industries to dig into their AI development strategies. Companies should look at how their AI capabilities are progressing compared to competitors, work toward AI solutions for your processes, and determine how AI can be used to reshape what you do. After all, Wolfe Pereira writes, the change AI will bring to business is just beginning, and the IDC predicted it will drive an economic transformation worth nearly $20 trillion by 2030. This is the published version of Forbes' CFO newsletter, which offers the latest news for chief finance officers and other leaders focused on the budget. Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox every Tuesday. Container ships docked at the Port of Oakland in Oakland, inflation has stayed lower than expected for the last several months, it's beginning to tick upward. Consumer prices were up 2.7% in June, according to federal government figures released on Tuesday, a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, and a tenth of a percentage point more than economists' predictions. Many of Trump's new tariffs have not yet been enacted and companies and consumers haven't felt their impact, though an analysis released last week by Yale University found that the new import taxes could increase costs for households by about $2,400. UBS analysts project that tariffs could push inflation to 3.9% by the end of the year, but given the uncertainty and volatility around tariff amounts and effective dates, it's been difficult to assess. However, a Reuters/Ipsos survey in late April found that close to nine in 10 consumers are concerned about inflation this year. There's been more tariff-related turmoil in the last week, with the Trump Administration announcing several new effective dates and rates. Rather than starting last week as was previously announced, the bulk of the tariffs have been pushed to start August 1. And Trump says he's increasing the baseline tariff rate on all nations to 15% to 20%, up from 10%. Tariffs announced on specific countries include a 35% rate on Canada, 30% on the EU and Mexico, 25% on South Korea and Japan, and 50% on Brazil because of the country's ongoing prosecution of former leader Jair Bolsonaro, which Trump called an 'international disgrace.' In the last week, Trump also has floated a potential 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals, a 50% tariff on copper and additional 10% tariffs on BRICS nations, which Trump said is an 'Anti-American' bloc. Foreign leaders denounced the tariff announcements as irresponsible and based on inaccurate information, but many have said they will try to continue negotiating. And even though notes from last month's meeting of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee indicated that many on staff feel an interest rate cut is likely to come later this year, the Trump Administration is already starting the formal procedure to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg. Trump has repeatedly—and unsuccessfully—demanded rate cuts from Powell since his inauguration, sometimes with insulting social media posts. Powell's term leading the Fed is set to expire next May. BIG DEALS Several Kellogg cereals on a grocery store shelf. Lindsey Nicholson/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images Italian candy maker Ferrero is continuing its mammoth M&A streak, announcing last week its plans to buy famed U.S. cereal maker WK Kellogg for $3.1 billion. WK Kellogg was formed in 2023 when Kellogg split, and includes the company's North American cereal brands. If the deal is approved by investors and regulators, the iconic cereal company would be the largest in a string of at least 21 global acquisitions for Ferrero under Executive Chairman Giovanni Ferrero in the last decade. Forbes' Giocomo Tognini writes that Giovanni Ferrero, who owns more than 75% of the global food giant, has led the company in more than $13 billion worth of acquisitions. This deal, Ferrero's second acquisition of brands that once belonged to the larger Kellogg company (the first was the $1.3 billion purchase of its cookie and fruit snack brands in 2019), could increase Ferrero's annual revenues by 10%. DEEP DIVE What Trump's New Taxation And Policy Law Means For Your Business President Donald Trump shows his signature on the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" at the White House on July 4. BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/POOL/AFP via Getty Images On July 4, Trump's signature budget proposal, dubbed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, was signed into law. It's mainly a collection of taxation and financial policies, and could have big implications for businesses. It also happens to be 887 pages long, so there's a lot to digest. Forbes' Kelly Phillips Erb delves into some of the benefits that businesses will see under the bill. The 2017 corporate tax cuts from Trump's first administration were already permanent, so the bill did not need to extend them. However, the new law makes the 20% pass-through deduction for LLCs and S-corporations permanent. It also continues tax exclusions for earnings on the sale of 'qualified small business stock' based on the date it was purchased, and brings back 100% deductions on asset depreciation. Forbes contributor Nathan Goldman also highlights how the new law will impact corporate taxation. Businesses can now immediately expense domestic R&D costs, which is retroactive to December 31, 2021, when this benefit last expired. International R&D costs will still be subject to the current amortization rules. The law also brings back Trump's first-term opportunity zones—areas that will bring significant tax deductions if businesses are located there. Under the new law, a third of all opportunity zones must be in rural areas, but the tax incentive is increased to 30% exclusions of deferred gains—up from 10% in the previous administration. The new law also significantly increases the tax credit for businesses to build an on-site child care facility or contract with a qualified provider, writes Forbes ' Danielle Chemtob. Businesses can now offset 40% of qualified child care expenditures up to $500,000, or 50% up to $600,000 in the case of small businesses. The benefit, which used to be 25% of expenses with a maximum of $150,000 annually, was rarely used. COMINGS + GOINGS Donut chain Krispy Kreme appointed Raphael Duvivier as chief financial officer, effective July 11. Duvivier joined the company in 2019 and previously worked as president international. He succeeded Jeremiah Ashukian, who is pursuing another opportunity. appointed as chief financial officer, effective July 11. Duvivier joined the company in 2019 and previously worked as president international. He succeeded Jeremiah Ashukian, who is pursuing another opportunity. Analytics software firm SAS tapped Matt Parson as executive vice president and chief financial officer. Parson steps into the position from ExtraHop, where he held dual CFO and COO roles. He succeeds David Davis, who is retiring after nearly 40 years with SAS. tapped as executive vice president and chief financial officer. Parson steps into the position from ExtraHop, where he held dual CFO and COO roles. He succeeds David Davis, who is retiring after nearly 40 years with SAS. Digital infrastructure company Equinix selected Shane Paladin as executive vice president and chief customer and revenue officer, effective July 14. Paladin most recently worked as CEO of Siteimprove, and also held leadership roles at SAP. STRATEGIES + ADVICE Disruption is the new normal in business, and good leaders can see it as an opportunity—not just a problem. Here are four ways that CFOs can turn today's unknowns into tomorrow's success. As AI is becoming more capable, it can sometimes do a better job than underperforming employees. Here's how to determine whether you can use an AI agent to effectively replace a team member who isn't getting the job done, and advice on how to make it happen. QUIZ The One Big Beautiful Bill Act brings back a provision from Trump's first term in office that boosted the number of purchases of which big-ticket luxury item? A. Vacation properties B. Boats C. Private jets D. Bespoke watches See if you got the right answer here.

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