This Is... Our Independence Day (For Climate Solutions)

Forbes

6 hours ago

The end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end
Despite some last-minute successful rescue efforts on some small but crucial points, climate investors in the United States are reeling this week from the passage of the new federal law which not only rolled back prior incentives for renewables and other clean energy and transportation projects, but in some ways imposed new penalties on them.
This is decidedly not good news for climate investors in the United States, to be clear. But we've been here before, and this time we have some key advantages that our sector has not had in prior such retrenchment episodes.
Let's look at the last twenty years of the residential solar industry in the U.S. When I was first getting started as an investor, it was fascinating to attend solar industry conferences, because the sector was clearly at a transition point. Walking through the exhibitor halls, you could see investment bankers in full suits rubbing elbows with guys in Birkenstocks and wearing ponytails. One can only imagine what the latter conference attendees must have felt about the 'suits' invading what had been a small niche industry until then.
The thing is, this was before any large-scale federal incentive program for solar had been put into place. This was even before a Republican president declared 'America is addicted to oil.'
And it was before the costs for rooftop solar made sense without incentives. The industry was still far from 'breaking a buck' (ie: getting the cost of panel manufacturing below $1/watt). But the investors could all see the trend lines as well as anyone else, and understand the basic logic: That as solar PV and other renewable power continued to see dropping manufacturing costs, and significantly lower operating costs than thermal power generation, distributed clean power production was going to become important.
And they were right. As the prices continued to drop, financiers took the baton and figured out ways to turn a 'total cost of ownership' ("TCO") advantage into an overall cost advantage, and solar adoption flourished.
The thing is, as mentioned above there still wasn't some massive Federal subsidy system for solar. Yes, a limited solar tax credit was implemented. But investors who were around at the time will remember that the industry really wasn't taking off because of this federal tax credit – instead, there were various state-level incentives that the solar industry utilized. As one state after another implemented new incentives, the industry jumped from state to state and the early movers found strong advantages by being flexible and entrepreneurial. I'm old enough to remember when New Jersey was the focus of industry activity, for example. And that patchwork of state-level programs was enough to support strong industry growth that eventually became a nationwide trend and a multi-billion dollar market.
So here the climate solutions sector is again, with the federal rug pulled out from underneath the industry. But this is the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end.
1. It's not just a solar and wind industry anymore.
It's certainly overstating things to suggest that 'cleantech' (as it was termed back in 2005) was just a solar and wind game. There were robust efforts around energy efficiency, waste treatment, electric vehicles, water treatment, and many other sectors. However, solar and wind was the focus.
Now, climate solutions investors have more broadly embraced these other solution areas and more. There are many sectors like waste-to-value that have been growing quickly without any real federal support at all, and in many cases without any state-level incentives either.2. Despite the political rhetoric at the federal level, states governments are more supportive of a wide range of climate and clean technology solutions.
Waste-to-value solutions, for example, are really not a 'red state / blue state' issue. Landfill capacity constraints and a desire for clean food and water (see Exhibit A: PFAS concerns) loom larger for local-level legislatures versus the grandstanders in Congress and the White House.
And for many of these solutions, especially those related to the circular economy, localization is a key success factor in any case. Waste diversion and re-use, for example, is not a national issue nearly as much as it is a local issue.3. The underlying economics of these new solutions make sense now regardless of incentives, for many applications.
TCO is a real thing, and the financial industry has now figured out how to unlock overall cost advantages by 'spreading out' the higher upfront costs of cleaner solutions across many of these sectors.
In electric vehicles, for instance, many consumers now recognize that an electric sedan or pickup truck may cost more up front, but will save them money (and in many cases simply provide a better driving experience) in the long run. Commercial fleet owners for the most part haven't yet figured this out. But they will, and an entire industry dedicated to helping companies profitably electrify their vehicle fleets is now in place and growing.The downside of not having consistent federal-level support is also clear from observing the past two decades of the growth of the solar industry in the U.S. – it wasn't a smooth growth curve. As the sector grew in fits and starts, there have been successive waves of fast growth followed by industry consolidation – some of us call it 'the solar-coaster'. We are currently seeing the same thing in fleet electrification, for example.
But on the other hand, contrarian, long-term investors may find right now to be a really attractive time to be placing bets on these industries and solutions, while investment values are depressed. The long-term climate change megatrend remains in place. Other countries aren't throwing such obstacles in front of their own market growth, costs continue to decline, and state-level incentives remain in place across many U.S. regions.
Investors and entrepreneurs interested in U.S.-based climate solutions across the energy, food, water, waste and transportation sectors should look forward, knowing that the industry is more resilient than ever. Yes, better federal support would make a lot of sense in terms of innovation, economic growth, and the climate change crisis. But we don't need the federal support to keep moving forward. In many ways, this is our independence day.