
Canada's population standstill rattling Vancouver's housing industry
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Sounds dramatic. And in some ways it is.
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That's even though the dip in the total number of people doesn't make a statistical difference for either province. In the first quarter of this year, B.C. had 2,357 fewer residents than at the end of 2024; Ontario lost 5,644.
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But, as Statistics Canada says: 'While small compared to the size of each province, these were the largest quarterly losses in population for both Ontario and B.C. since comparable records began in 1951. '
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In each of the past two years B.C. had added more than 160,000 people, an unprecedented annual growth rate of more than three per cent, almost all of it fuelled by Ottawa's openness to international migration.
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The fact this year has seen the most significant dip in the two provinces' populations in almost three generations appears to signal the end of Canada's recent ultra-high migration experiment.
This new phenomenon, a population standstill, is having repercussions, especially on the housing market.
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The federal Liberals, after a decade in power, seem to have finally got the public's message that their policies were creating too much demand on housing and rents. As a result, in May Prime Minister Mark Carney said, albeit vaguely, that his government will bring 'overall immigration rates to sustainable levels.'
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Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, meanwhile, is becoming bolder. Last month he said he wants 'severe limits' on population growth to restore some equilibrium to jobs, social services and housing.
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Such talk is alarming the property development industry, which is experiencing a softening of demand. Even though many analysts say it's simply part of the real-estate cycle, developers are renewing calls for a return to more foreign buyers in Canadian housing.
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Coinciding with the change in attitude among Ottawa's politicians, StatCan has just published two reports that highlight the power that vigorous migration rates have had on the cost of housing.
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CBC
38 minutes ago
- CBC
Alberta Prosperity Project releases fiscal plan, predicts surplus in billions within 1 year of separation
The Alberta Prosperity Project's new draft fiscal plan is projecting Alberta's economy could double within 20 years of separation. The Value of Freedom: A Draft Fully Costed Fiscal Plan for an Independent Alberta was released Thursday. It estimates a surplus in the billions within the first year of independence from Canada. "Alberta can literally become the most prosperous country in the world with the highest GDP per capita of any country in the world," said Jeff Rath, a co-founder of the separatist group, which announced in May that it would push the province to allow a separation referendum later this year. Some experts say Thursday's fiscal plan lacks clarity, and that despite the project's claims of making conservative estimates, the numbers could be an overestimation. "There's a lot of knowns and unknowns in the plan," said Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Alberta Central, a group representing credit unions in the province. "Especially when we look further down the road — it's not clear how it all holds together," he said. Speaking at a hotel in downtown Calgary, Rath said his group's research — which cites sources such as Statistics Canada, the Government of Alberta and public documents from provincial accounting firms — shows a surplus of between $23.6 and $45.5 billion per year. Once divorced from Canada, the province would also stop paying equalization payments, saving $44 to $47 billion, he said. St-Arnaud, however, said that all hinges on whether Alberta is able to cover the cost of services the federal government is already paying for. "There might be a saving there by not having to be a net contributor to equalization, for example, but the cost of setting up all those new programs, all those new institutions will be probably higher than what they expect," he said. Conservative estimates The plan estimates a 33 to 55 per cent tax cut for Albertans in the first year, as well as deregulation for businesses. It also outlines a doubling-down on oil and gas production, with production hitting 9.5 million barrels per day by 2045. Recent forecasting from S&P Global Commodity Insights anticipates annual production to reach 3.5 million barrels per day this year. St-Arnaud said this could be an overestimation, as the plan puts the cost per barrel at $85. Current prices are just under $70 a barrel. "There's a bit of careful consideration that needs to be taken there that maybe we're having a bit of an overestimation of what will be the long-term benefits because of those assumptions," he said. Rath said the plan uses "extremely conservative estimates" to make those assumptions, resulting in numbers reflecting the least positive outcome. University of Calgary political science professor Lisa Young notes that the plan does take into account the fluctuation in oil prices. "They acknowledge that demand for oil will peak relatively soon and then decline," she said, demonstrating they are thinking about potential swings in the economy. Still, Rath said they believe there is no sign demand for oil and gas will shift. "It's kind of like Al Gore saying the oceans are boiling," he said, referencing comments the former U.S. vice president made several years ago about climate change. "Every five years somebody says that the end of the earth is coming and nobody has yet to come up with an economic alternative to oil and gas." Young said the plan still lacks "robust" analysis from economists — and it leaves several questions about the nuts and bolts of separation unanswered. "Have they taken into account the frictional costs of separation?" she said. "Have they taken into account the many people who would pack their bags and leave the province and not want to be part of Alberta?" Pension payments and currency concerns Another area of uncertainty is the plan to shift to an Alberta Pension Plan — like the one the United Conservative government has proposed. Using data from a 2023 LifeWorks report, the plan says the Canadian Pension Plan owes Alberta $334 billion. With its conservative estimates, the plan assumes the province would receive $167 billion in 2026. Rath also said an independent Alberta would reduce pension payments but double pension payouts. But St-Arnaud said this is based on the assumption that Albertans are generally richer and can contribute more, but also that they are younger and will use less of the money. "But Albertans are gonna get older anyway," he said. "Yes, Alberta is still younger than the rest of Canada, but that gap is narrowing quite rapidly." He also said one key mistake the plan makes in its revenue estimates is combining returns from the Alberta Pension Plan with overall fiscal revenue. "That amount of revenues shouldn't be included in fiscal revenues because that's the way pension funds work, and that's the way the CPP works at a federal level," he said. "It's an independent entity." Rath said Alberta would also adopt the U.S. dollar, before eventually shifting to an Alberta-specific currency. Young said the potential effect this could have is not clear. "What would it mean to adopt the American dollar all of a sudden, right? What would that do to people's personal finances?" she said. Opposition petition 'a bad joke' At the same press conference Thursday, Rath addressed questions about a competing petition plan that would call for Alberta to stay in Canada. "It's a bad joke," Rath said. "It's not a petition that we're taking seriously." The Forever Canada petition, led by former Progressive Conservative Thomas Lukaszuk, is posing its own referendum question about staying in Alberta. Rath said this will not disrupt his group's plans to submit a question on separation because theirs is a constitutional challenge, not a policy one.


Winnipeg Free Press
an hour ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
Selkirk solar glass plant plans in holding pattern
A prominent manufacturing facility proposed for Selkirk has taken a backseat as trade tensions with the United States persist. For now, Canadian Premium Sand Inc. is focusing on building a solar glass manufacturing plant in the southern U.S. '(It) takes a bunch of the risk out that currently exists with the Selkirk operation,' said Glenn Leroux, CPS president and CEO. FREE PRESS FILES Glenn Leroux, president and CEO of Canadian Premium Sand. The U.S. hub could be paused if American policies are unclear by build time, he added. CPS, an Alberta-based company, announced plans to build a solar glass manufacturing site in Selkirk four years ago. It has permits to mine silica sand from its wholly-owned Wanipigow quarry leases near Hollow Water First Nation. Early last year, the Manitoba New Democrats endorsed the plan, which would be — at the time — North America's only pattern solar glass manufacturing facility. By the end of 2024, CPS had secured $272 million from the provincial and federal governments, provided private-sector cash would come. The plant is slated to cost $900 million and it's still in Canadian Premium Sand's future, Leroux stressed. 'We're still committed to Manitoba,' he said. 'It's a heck of a resource.' But the ever-changing trade relationships between the United States and other countries — namely, Canada and China — have made it difficult to pursue the Selkirk project, Leroux said. The plant needs private-sector funding. Before that can happen, the company must secure offtake agreements, where CPS pre-sells its solar panel glass to customers. Demand for offtake agreements at the Selkirk site has dampened since a Canada-U.S. trade war erupted, Leroux said. Most, if not all, of Canadian Premium Sand clients are based in the United States; tariffs and threats have bred uncertainty. 'It's almost impossible to get an offtake agreement committed to … Canadian supply,' Leroux said. 'Until that stability is in place, we don't have a hope, really, of financing,' Long-term, the Selkirk facility still makes sense, he continued: the cost of manufacturing is relatively low because of electricity and natural gas prices, and the sand is close by. Leroux is visiting Manitoba later this month for business related to the Selkirk operation. In the near-term, Canadian Premium Sand is leaning into a proposed U.S. manufacturing facility — one that will likely be built before Selkirk's, if plans continue as expected. CPS has circled an abandoned glass manufacturing site in the southern United States. It believes the locale will be able to produce a four gigawatt equivalent of pattern solar glass annually. (The Selkirk plant is expected to produce six GW per year.) Leroux declined to give the location, saying the current owner doesn't yet want it public. CPS has negotiated a letter of intent to lease the site for 12 years. There's an 850,000-square-foot building and existing logistics infrastructure. CPS estimates the site will cost US$350 million. It's currently studying the refined cost and construction timeline. Results should be before the board around September, Leroux ballparked. Already, CPS has agreements with customers covering about half of its U.S. production capacity. Once funding is raised, Leroux said he believes construction could take two years to finish. Financing from the U.S. government is in flux, Leroux noted: CPS was approved for a US$75 million tax credit through the Department of Energy last year, but legislation may have changed. 'We think (the credit) is still intact,' Leroux said. 'We just don't know.' Answers should follow the passage of Trump's budget bill, dubbed the 'big, beautiful bill,' Leroux continued. (U.S. Congress passed the bill Thursday.) Recent proposed amendments to the Inflation Reduction Act repeal incentives to use renewable energy. It could hurt solar panel business, Leroux said. However, policy amendments in the budget bill would include restricting energy tax credits for those using 'prohibited foreign entities,' like companies based in China. That would help business, Leroux noted. 'I can't emphasize … how complex it is,' he said. 'There's just so many moving parts related to this that weren't there before.' CPS may first use American low-iron silica sand upon opening its U.S. facility. Eventually, it aims to ship sand from Manitoba for manufacturing. Stability between Canada and the U.S. is essential for CPS's Selkirk plant moving forward, Leroux underscored. '(We need) confidence that the Trump administration isn't going to wake up the next morning and change,' he said. 'I have no idea … when that's going to happen.' Businesses across Manitoba are pausing large investments amid economic uncertainty, noted Elisabeth Saftiuk, Manitoba Chambers of Commerce vice-president of policy and government relations. She's hoping a trade deal between Canada and the U.S. will be cemented by July 21, a date politicians have bookmarked. Monday Mornings The latest local business news and a lookahead to the coming week. 'Canadian Premium Sand's decision underscores how disruptive trade tensions and the corresponding uncertainty has been on businesses,' Saftiuk said. In the short-term, CPS's path could be a 'significant' economic opportunity loss to Manitoba as jobs and tax revenue funnel to the United States, she continued. Removing interprovincial trade barriers and bolstering Manitoba infrastructure like the Port of Churchill are key buffers against an unreliable American president, she stated. Selkirk Mayor Larry Johannson said he respects CPS doing business in the United States and hopes both manufacturing plants will come to fruition. The Selkirk site has 'readily available' sands, he noted. Gabrielle PichéReporter Gabrielle Piché reports on business for the Free Press. She interned at the Free Press and worked for its sister outlet, Canstar Community News, before entering the business beat in 2021. Read more about Gabrielle. Every piece of reporting Gabrielle produces is reviewed by an editing team before it is posted online or published in print — part of the Free Press's tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press's history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates. Our newsroom depends on a growing audience of readers to power our journalism. If you are not a paid reader, please consider becoming a subscriber. Our newsroom depends on its audience of readers to power our journalism. Thank you for your support.


CTV News
an hour ago
- CTV News
Spruce Grove ballpark, refund delays frustrate season-ticket holders
Season-ticket holders for an Edmonton-area baseball club are demanding refunds because its new ballpark is still under construction and may not be ready to open this season as promised. Jennifer Vachon and Sandie Miller both bought season tickets for the Energy City Cactus Rats in anticipation of watching the Western Canada Baseball League team in a new ballpark being built in Spruce Grove. The problem is construction of the stadium isn't finished, and from the looks of it, it won't be ready this season. Vachon spent $1,600 for four season tickets in 2023, when the team was known as the Edmonton Prospects and its new home field was under construction and had been for more than a year at that point. The Spruce Grove resident said she and her family were excited by the idea of watching games in a new stadium with promises of on-site entertainment, a microbrewery and an outdoor amphitheatre. However, that was then. It's two years later and the stadium sits partly finished on the eastern edge of the town a 10-minute drive from Edmonton's western city limit. Spruce Grove Ballpark A 2025 aerial view of the under-construction Energy City Metro Ball Park, far right, in Spruce Grove, Alta. (Google Maps) 'It was something we wanted to do as a family, but now, with everything going on and the kids getting older, we just don't have the time for season tickets anymore,' Vachon told CTV News Edmonton on Thursday. 'I'd love to purchase single tickets and come as much as possible.' Miller said she and her husband are also frustrated they've paid for seats that they can't sit in. They spent $1,050 on two season seats for home games this year. Miller said the Cactus Rats anticipated a home-opening game in the new ballpark late last month then pushed the date further and further into July. 'At that point, I said I wanted a refund because I know it's not going to be open this year and I can't commit to next year,' she told CTV News Edmonton. Spruce Grove ballpark Energy City Metro Ball Park under construction on July 3, 2025, in Spruce Grove, Alta. (Nav Sangha/CTV News Edmonton) Instead, in an email, the team told Miller it would be playing its first home games July 5 and 6 at Spruce Grove's Henry Singer Ball Park, where there is no seating. It would cost an additional $30 for both games and people would be allowed to bring their own chairs if they wished. She said she doesn't want to 'go sit in a field and watch a ball game.' 'I want the whole experience of the stadium and everything they promised,' Miller said. Miller has been put on a refund list, but in a statement to CTV News Edmonton, the Cactus Rats said 'our ticket policies, including those regarding refunds, align with the broader Western Canadian Baseball League standards.' 'Under those guidelines, refunds are not issued, even in cases of venue-related disruptions,' the team wrote, adding 'all 2025 season ticket holders have received a full credit toward 2026 season tickets.' The Cactus Rats said while they're 'deeply disappointed' with their ballpark construction delays, 'we've continued to press forward with the season at alternate venues.' Henry Singer Ball Park A baseball diamond at Spruce Grove's Henry Singer Ball Park on July 3, 2025. (Sean McClune/CTV News Edmonton) The club has played the first six weeks of the WCBL season on the road and used Fort McMurray's ballpark as their home venue for a clutch of late June games. The league's regular season is scheduled to end on Aug. 4 followed by the playoffs. If the season had ended Wednesday, the Cactus Rats – currently fourth place in the West Division with a record of 12-17 – would be in the WCBL post-season. Still, Vachon says he 'doesn't think it's right' if she doesn't get a refund. 'It's my money, and we've just heard nothing, and they are kind of saying that a full credit can be used for next year, but like I said, our life has changed,' she said. 'I cannot spend $1,600 in tickets next season, so it's left me a little sour with them. It's frustrating.'