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Round trip to nowhere: Markets break a sweat, but not new ground
Samie Modak Mumbai
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After a roller-coaster year, the markets have ended up where they began. The benchmark Nifty 50 closed July at 24,768 — 183 points, or 0.73 per cent, below its July 2024 close of 24,951.
Over the past 12 months, the advance/decline ratio for BSE-listed companies has been evenly split — six months of gains, six of losses. This fine balance between advancing and declining stocks underscores the difficulty investors have faced in locking in consistent returns.
As a result, for many who entered the market through direct stocks or mutual funds, the outcome has been underwhelming.
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Top 3 stock picks by Ankush Bajaj – August 4, 2025 Buy: CUPID LTD — Current Price: ₹158.20 Why it's recommended: CUPID LTD is showing encouraging signs of bullish momentum. The hourly RSI stands at 65, indicating strength, while the MACD remains positive at 2, confirming trend continuation. Technically, the stock has formed a bullish pennant pattern near ₹150 — a continuation formation that suggests potential for further upside towards ₹170+. The confluence of price action and momentum indicators supports a bullish outlook. Key metrics: Breakout zone: Bullish pennant pattern around ₹150 Pattern: Continuation pattern signaling trend resumption MACD: Positive at 2 RSI: Hourly RSI at 65, indicating strong buying strength Technical analysis: The bullish pennant breakout combined with firm momentum suggests potential for the stock to move toward ₹172 Risk factors: A close below ₹150 would invalidate the pattern and may trigger a short-term pullback. Buy at: ₹158.20 Target price: ₹172 Stop loss: ₹150 Buy: GTPL HATHWAY LTD — Current Price: ₹122.80 Why it's recommended: GTPL HATHWAY LTD is gaining traction after a breakout from a falling wedge pattern on the hourly chart. The hourly RSI is at 60 and MACD is positive at 2, supporting upward momentum. On the daily chart, the stock has also formed a triangle pattern — a consolidation structure now resolving higher, signaling trend continuation. Key metrics: Breakout zone: Falling wedge breakout on hourly chart Pattern: Triangle on daily, wedge breakout on hourly MACD: Positive at 2 RSI: Hourly RSI at 60, indicating bullish shift Technical analysis: The alignment of breakout patterns across timeframes and bullish momentum signals point to a near-term upside toward ₹136–138. Risk factors: A break below ₹115 would negate the setup and suggest caution. Buy at: ₹122.80 Target price: ₹136–138 Stop loss: ₹115 Buy: DABUR INDIA LTD — Current Price: ₹534.35 Why it's recommended: DABUR INDIA LTD has shown a strong bullish breakout on the hourly chart around ₹535. The hourly RSI is elevated at 63, and the MACD at 5 confirms bullish momentum. As long as the price sustains above the ₹535 breakout level, the short-term trend remains positive with upside potential. Key metrics: Breakout zone: Hourly breakout at ₹535 Pattern: Bullish continuation with price confirmation MACD: Positive at 5 RSI: Hourly RSI at 63, showing strength Technical analysis: The recent breakout and sustained momentum suggest potential for the stock to move toward ₹555 in the near term. Risk factors: A close below ₹527 may weaken the setup and indicate potential consolidation or reversal. Buy at: ₹534.35 Target price: ₹555 Stop loss: ₹527 Two stock recommendations by MarketSmith India for 4 August: Buy: Eicher Motors Ltd (current price: ₹5,528) Why it's recommended: Robust premium motorcycle demand, outstanding export performance, diversified commercial vehicle joint venture, strategic EV roadmap, and capacity expansion Key metrics: P/E: 36.09, 52-week high: ₹ 5,906.50, volume: ₹785.36 crore Technical analysis: Reclaimed its 100-DMA on above average volume Risk factors: Rising competitive intensity in >250 cc segment, concentrated ownership and governance influence, macro-economics, and export headwinds. Buy at: ₹ 5,470–5,600 Target price: ₹ 6,120 in two to three months Stop loss: ₹ 5,250 Buy: TVS Motor Company Ltd (current price: ₹2,858) Why it's recommended: Strong product portfolio and brand equity, electric vehicle expansion, robust export growth Key metrics: P/E: 51.31; 52-week high: ₹2,960; volume: ₹ 646.46 crore Technical analysis: Downward sloping trendline breakout Risk factors: Input cost inflation, EV transition risks, high competitive intensity Buy at: ₹2,830–2,870 Target price: ₹3,100 in two to three months Stop loss: ₹ 2,740 MarketSmith India is a stock research platform and advisory service focused on the Indian stock market. Trade name: William O'Neil India Pvt. Ltd. (Sebi Registered Research Analyst Registration No.: INH000015543 Raja Venkatraman is co-founder, NeoTrader. His Sebi-registered research analyst registration no. is INH000016223. Ankush Bajaj is a Sebi-registered research analyst. His registration number is INH000010441. Investments in securities are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by Sebi and certification from NISM in no way guarantees performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
