Nigel Farage should do a deal with the Tories, but not now
On YouGov's analysis, Labour would secure 178 seats, but the Tories a lowly 46. It would mark the end of politics as we know it and would herald a period of political revolution, even if Reform held no majority.
We are a long way from a general election. While it is a reasonable bet that Keir Starmer will not last the course as Labour leader – he will be vulnerable within eighteen months at this rate – and while it is also a reasonable bet that this Labour Government will not last the course either, there is no prospect of an election soon. This means seat projections at this point are interesting but must be taken with a pinch of salt.
That said, my working assumption for many months has been that the next election will bring a coalition Government. Reform's surge and the collapse of both main parties means British politics is being fractured; only a coalition of the broken pieces will likely form an administration next time.
What does that mean for Reform? Should they start negotiations now to form a pact with the Tories to make a Right-leaning Government more likely? Or carry on in the hope they can win a majority?
Reform and the Conservatives will almost certainly do a deal; it is just a matter of time. Because in almost any realistic scenario you can think of, such a deal makes sense. Let us look at the two currently unlikely possibilities first.
If the Tories recover dramatically to, say, the high 20s in the polls, and Reform poll about the same, then the two parties ought to see sense and agree a non-aggression pact, where Reform stands in seats they are likely to win, and the Tories stand in seats they will win.
They would be slitting each other's throats pointlessly without such a pact. This goes against everything the Tories currently believe about standing in every seat, but we are in an entirely new world.
And if Reform completely collapsed and the Tories recovered, the Conservatives would want to try to fold Reform MPs and candidates into their movement, even unofficially, to maximise their chances of winning or governing effectively in a coalition. This was essentially the position agreed between Boris Johnson's Conservatives and Nigel Farage's Brexit Party in 2019.
More likely is that Reform stays strong and the Tories stay weak. YouGov's new MRP analysis is more detailed than other polls put out to date, but other pollsters confirm Reform is in the ascendancy. In this scenario, Reform should offer a deal which effectively seeks a takeover of the Conservative Party under Farage's management.
This prospect is already being considered by senior Tory figures, who think a merger is the only realistic prospect for the right. It would, in effect, be a variation of the Maga takeover of the Republican Party. In some ways, it would mark drastic change; in other ways it would merely mark a return to a more Thatcherite party. Whether the Conservative Party name remained is another question.
But this does not mean Farage should seek a deal now. This would be a pointless distraction and would imply fear and weakness on his part. Not least because the Tories are ludicrously still posturing as if they are a relevant party. They are not; they are finished as we know it, but need more time to realise their predicament.
Rather, Farage should focus overwhelmingly on creating a message which is popular enough to propel them into power, and recruiting serious candidates who will not blow up their movement through stupidity.
This is harder than it sounds; Reform, like any ideological party, attracts eccentrics. If Reform can maintain their poll lead, they will be in a much, much stronger position to dictate terms to the Conservatives.
With one eye on coalition Government, and another eye on a takeover, however, Farage needs to be careful about how he attacks the Conservatives. He may, after all, end up effectively leading the party in the not-too-distant future.
With this in mind, it is better to do two things. Firstly, criticise the Conservatives for specific policy failures in office (which even Tory activists agree with). Do this rather than attacking the institution as beyond hope. Farage should remember his Brian Clough, who so trashed his Leeds United rivals from Derby in the 1970s that he could not manage the team when he was appointed at Leeds.
Secondly, direct attacks on Kemi Badenoch as leader; not her personality and values but, again, her record and policy choices. There will be plenty to go on. This will mean, in time, that Farage can do a deal with 'anyone but Kemi'. She will be gone and he can take over a party which he has not too brutally derided and with a leader (or, rather, a deputy leader) with whom he can do business.
A new Right-wing movement is coming, regardless of what happens in the next few months. The entire Conservative base has collapsed, donors are moving over and MPs and candidates know Westminster politics will soon become a distant dream. The polls are real. A deal will ultimately suit both Reform and the Tories.
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