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Uncertain Peace

Uncertain Peace

New York Times24-06-2025
Yesterday, President Trump declared that Iran and Israel had reached a cease-fire, bringing an end to what he called 'the 12-Day War.' Iran and Israel later confirmed the truce. But it was tenuous: The sides traded fire until the last moments before it went into effect, and Israel said Iranian missiles had killed four people.
Soon after the truce began, sirens again blared in northern Israel. Israel said Iran had launched missiles during the cease-fire, a claim Iran's military denied. 'We will respond with force,' the chief of staff for Israel's military said. Trump's announcement, which caught even some of his top officials by surprise, may not be the end of the conflict.
We also don't know if the war so far has accomplished the primary objective for Israel and the U.S.: to dismantle Iran's nuclear program. Whether last week's American strikes actually destroyed their targets remains unclear. And what if Iran tries to rebuild its program?
Today, I want to look at what the war with Iran leaves unresolved.
Four questions
Trump at first claimed that American bombs obliterated Iran's nuclear program. So far, though, much remains unsettled:
Did the U.S. strikes destroy their targets? American officials say that U.S. bombs and missiles did 'severe' damage to Iran's nuclear facilities. But we still don't know much about their effect, particularly on Fordo, where Iran enriches uranium. The military had previously claimed that it could wipe out the site with just two bunker-busting bombs; it ultimately dropped a dozen.
Officials may not get answers for days or weeks, if ever. The same trait that makes Fordo so hard to strike — that it's deep underground — also makes gauging its status difficult.
Does Iran have a secret enrichment facility? Before the U.S. attacks, Iran said that it had built a new enrichment site, its third, 'in a secure and invulnerable location.' The facility is possibly under a mountain, similar to Fordo. If it's up and running with the newest centrifuges, it could enrich uranium for nuclear weapons within months.
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Read more here Trump says US has reached trade deal with the Philippines President Trump said Tuesday the US had reached a trade deal with the Philippines following its president's visit to the White House. He posted on Truth Social: This doesn't seem to move the needle much for the Philippines, whose imports to the US will see a 19% tariff instead of the 20% Trump had threatened from Aug. 1. The Philippines is the US's 29th-largest trade partner. President Trump said Tuesday the US had reached a trade deal with the Philippines following its president's visit to the White House. He posted on Truth Social: This doesn't seem to move the needle much for the Philippines, whose imports to the US will see a 19% tariff instead of the 20% Trump had threatened from Aug. 1. The Philippines is the US's 29th-largest trade partner. Copper-laden ships race to reach US ahead of tariffs Fascinating angle from Bloomberg: Read more here. Fascinating angle from Bloomberg: Read more here. Coca-Cola CFO on tariffs: 'We think we can manage' Coca-Cola's (KO) CFO said the company is managing President Trump's tariffs. "June turned out to be a disappointing month," Coca-Cola CFO John Murphy told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday. He noted that tariffs continue to create uncertainty heading into the second half of the year. "We think we can manage absorbing any of the impacts with the various levers that we have at our disposal. It's always a local decision as to how to utilize those levers, but right now, it's something that we factored into our rest of year guidance." Yahoo Finance's Brooke DiPalma reports that Coca-Cola reported earnings for its second quarter that topped forecasts. Read more here. Coca-Cola's (KO) CFO said the company is managing President Trump's tariffs. "June turned out to be a disappointing month," Coca-Cola CFO John Murphy told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday. He noted that tariffs continue to create uncertainty heading into the second half of the year. "We think we can manage absorbing any of the impacts with the various levers that we have at our disposal. It's always a local decision as to how to utilize those levers, but right now, it's something that we factored into our rest of year guidance." Yahoo Finance's Brooke DiPalma reports that Coca-Cola reported earnings for its second quarter that topped forecasts. Read more here. Bessent says he will meet Chinese officials, discuss tariff deadline extension US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business on Tuesday that he plans to meet his Chinese counterpart next week and discuss an extension of an August 12 deadline for higher tariffs. Both China and the US reached a trade truce in London last month to prevent escalating tariffs. Reuters reports: Read more here. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business on Tuesday that he plans to meet his Chinese counterpart next week and discuss an extension of an August 12 deadline for higher tariffs. Both China and the US reached a trade truce in London last month to prevent escalating tariffs. Reuters reports: Read more here. RTX cuts 2025 profit forecast as tariff costs weigh US aerospace and defense giant RTX (RTX) cut its 2025 profit forecast on Tuesday, citing President Trump's trade war as the major reason. Shares of the company fell 3% in premarket trading. Reuters reports: Read more here. US aerospace and defense giant RTX (RTX) cut its 2025 profit forecast on Tuesday, citing President Trump's trade war as the major reason. Shares of the company fell 3% in premarket trading. Reuters reports: Read more here. GM's core profit slides in second quarter as Trump's tariffs bite Tariffs have started to hit US automaker General Motors (GM), who reported a fall in second quarter core profit of 32% to $3 billion on Tuesday. The automaker said tariffs have sapped $1.1 billion from results as it continues to grapple with President Trump's challenging trade war. Reuters reports: Read more here. Tariffs have started to hit US automaker General Motors (GM), who reported a fall in second quarter core profit of 32% to $3 billion on Tuesday. The automaker said tariffs have sapped $1.1 billion from results as it continues to grapple with President Trump's challenging trade war. Reuters reports: Read more here. Canadian boycott of US spirits hurts broader alcohol sales: Trade group American imports to Canada have dropped sharply due to Canadian provinces' boycott of US spirits amid the ongoing trade war with the United States, according to a Canadian liquor trade group. Reuters reports: Read more here. American imports to Canada have dropped sharply due to Canadian provinces' boycott of US spirits amid the ongoing trade war with the United States, according to a Canadian liquor trade group. Reuters reports: Read more here. AstraZeneca announces $50B US manufacturing investment, matching its big pharma peers Pharmaceutical giant, AstraZeneca (AZN) announced it plans to invest $50 billion in US manufacturing by 2030, in the hopes it will avoid steep tariffs on imported components manufactured abroad. Yahoo Finance's senior reporter Anjalee Khemlani looks at how AstraZeneca's latest US investment keeps pace with its big pharma rivals. Read more here Pharmaceutical giant, AstraZeneca (AZN) announced it plans to invest $50 billion in US manufacturing by 2030, in the hopes it will avoid steep tariffs on imported components manufactured abroad. Yahoo Finance's senior reporter Anjalee Khemlani looks at how AstraZeneca's latest US investment keeps pace with its big pharma rivals. Read more here Trump targeting trade loopholes risks 70% of China exports to US China's growth could be eroded due to President Trump's efforts to target the country via its trading partners across global supply chains, according to Bloomberg Economics. China is using other countries like Vietnam and Mexico more to make products for the US, a trend that accelerated after Trump's first trade war. China's share of total value- added manufacturing of goods destined for the US via Vietnam and Mexico surged 22% in 2023 from 14% in 2017. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. China's growth could be eroded due to President Trump's efforts to target the country via its trading partners across global supply chains, according to Bloomberg Economics. China is using other countries like Vietnam and Mexico more to make products for the US, a trend that accelerated after Trump's first trade war. China's share of total value- added manufacturing of goods destined for the US via Vietnam and Mexico surged 22% in 2023 from 14% in 2017. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. India-US interim trade deal prospects dim ahead of tariff deadline: Sources Hopes for a US-India trade deal before the August 1 deadline are fading, with talks stuck over cuts to farm and dairy tariffs, according to sources. Reuters reports: Read more here. Hopes for a US-India trade deal before the August 1 deadline are fading, with talks stuck over cuts to farm and dairy tariffs, according to sources. Reuters reports: Read more here. Orange juice importer says Trump's Brazil tariffs will raise US prices Orange juice prices join the list of products that could see price increases as a result of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Bloomberg reports: A US orange juice distributor is suing over President Donald Trump's move to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil starting next month. Johanna Foods Inc. is arguing that Trump's reasons for the levy increase — including support for Brazil's former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro — don't present 'unusual and extraordinary' threats that give him emergency authority to circumvent Congress' taxing power. The New Jersey-based company estimates that the Brazil tariffs would increase its costs for not-from-concentrate orange juice from Brazil by $68 million over the next 12 months and raise retail costs for consumers between 20-25%. According to the complaint, Brazil supplies more than half of all orange juice sold in the US. Read more here. Orange juice prices join the list of products that could see price increases as a result of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Bloomberg reports: A US orange juice distributor is suing over President Donald Trump's move to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil starting next month. Johanna Foods Inc. is arguing that Trump's reasons for the levy increase — including support for Brazil's former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro — don't present 'unusual and extraordinary' threats that give him emergency authority to circumvent Congress' taxing power. The New Jersey-based company estimates that the Brazil tariffs would increase its costs for not-from-concentrate orange juice from Brazil by $68 million over the next 12 months and raise retail costs for consumers between 20-25%. According to the complaint, Brazil supplies more than half of all orange juice sold in the US. Read more here. Brazil acknowledges possibility of no US trade deal by August 1 President Trump's August 1 tariff deadline is steadily approaching, and trading partners are preparing for multiple outcomes. Brazil, for example, is increasingly open to the possibility that a trade deal won't be reached in time. Reuters reported: Read more here. President Trump's August 1 tariff deadline is steadily approaching, and trading partners are preparing for multiple outcomes. Brazil, for example, is increasingly open to the possibility that a trade deal won't be reached in time. Reuters reported: Read more here. US steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs touts 'positive impact' of tariffs Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) CEO Lourenco Goncalves praised President Trump's protectionist policies on Monday, stating that the 25%-50% tariffs on foreign steel imports have had a "positive impact" on the US steel and automotive industries. The Section 232 steel tariffs "have played a significant role in supporting the domestic steel industry," Goncalves said during the company's earnings call. 'So far, there's no indication that the Section 232 tariffs will be used as a bargaining chip by the Trump administration as leverage in trade deals with other countries," Goncalves added. "We appreciate that and fully expect that the administration will keep in place and enforce these Section 232 tariffs." Goncalves said the only place where it's having a problem is with Stelco, the Canadian steel company it acquired in November 2024. The CEO urged Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to implement similar protectionist policies, saying that other efforts to curb unfair trade practices were "insufficient." Cleveland-Cliffs stock soared 11% in early trading Monday after the company reported record steel shipments of 4.3 million net tons for the three months ended June 30. Read more about how Cleveland-Cliffs' stock is trading. Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) CEO Lourenco Goncalves praised President Trump's protectionist policies on Monday, stating that the 25%-50% tariffs on foreign steel imports have had a "positive impact" on the US steel and automotive industries. The Section 232 steel tariffs "have played a significant role in supporting the domestic steel industry," Goncalves said during the company's earnings call. 'So far, there's no indication that the Section 232 tariffs will be used as a bargaining chip by the Trump administration as leverage in trade deals with other countries," Goncalves added. "We appreciate that and fully expect that the administration will keep in place and enforce these Section 232 tariffs." Goncalves said the only place where it's having a problem is with Stelco, the Canadian steel company it acquired in November 2024. The CEO urged Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to implement similar protectionist policies, saying that other efforts to curb unfair trade practices were "insufficient." Cleveland-Cliffs stock soared 11% in early trading Monday after the company reported record steel shipments of 4.3 million net tons for the three months ended June 30. Read more about how Cleveland-Cliffs' stock is trading. Bessent: Trump more concerned about quality of deals than making deals by Aug. 1 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday said the US wouldn't rush to make trade deals ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline for many of President Trump's sweeping tariffs to kick in. "We're not going to rush for the sake of doing deals," Bessent told CNBC in an interview. More from Reuters: Read more here. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday said the US wouldn't rush to make trade deals ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline for many of President Trump's sweeping tariffs to kick in. "We're not going to rush for the sake of doing deals," Bessent told CNBC in an interview. More from Reuters: Read more here. More signs that Europe is hardening its stance We detailed earlier (keep scrolling) how the EU is readying its plans for retaliation in case a trade deal with the US fails. The Wall Street Journal has a big report out today with some more details of those plans — and details on how delicate negotiations are on even thinner ice, as President Trump keeps wanting more. The report said the EU got a "surprise" when US officials said Trump would want a higher baseline tariff in any deal, likely north of 15%, after months of talks around a 10% baseline. That apparently prompted Germany, Europe's largest economy, to swing to more of an alignment with France, which has been pushing a harder line throughout the negotiations. 'All options are on the table,' a German official said. The official said there was still time to negotiate a deal but added, 'If they want war, they will get war.' More from the report: Read more here. We detailed earlier (keep scrolling) how the EU is readying its plans for retaliation in case a trade deal with the US fails. The Wall Street Journal has a big report out today with some more details of those plans — and details on how delicate negotiations are on even thinner ice, as President Trump keeps wanting more. The report said the EU got a "surprise" when US officials said Trump would want a higher baseline tariff in any deal, likely north of 15%, after months of talks around a 10% baseline. That apparently prompted Germany, Europe's largest economy, to swing to more of an alignment with France, which has been pushing a harder line throughout the negotiations. 'All options are on the table,' a German official said. The official said there was still time to negotiate a deal but added, 'If they want war, they will get war.' More from the report: Read more here. Stellantis warns of $2.7B loss as tariffs bite Big Three automaker Stellantis (STLA) warned on Monday that it expects a 2.3 billion euro ($2.7 billion) net loss for the first half of 2025, hit by restructuring costs, ebbing sales, and an initial hit from US tariffs. The Chrysler maker's US-listed shares slipped nearly 2% in premarket, mirroring a drop in its stock in Milan. Reuters reports: Read more here. Big Three automaker Stellantis (STLA) warned on Monday that it expects a 2.3 billion euro ($2.7 billion) net loss for the first half of 2025, hit by restructuring costs, ebbing sales, and an initial hit from US tariffs. The Chrysler maker's US-listed shares slipped nearly 2% in premarket, mirroring a drop in its stock in Milan. Reuters reports: Read more here. EU to prepare its retaliation plan as US hardens its stance on trade talks EU negotiators are scrambling to make a trade agreement with the US as the Aug. 1 tariff deadline closes in. But they are also stepping up preparations to strike back if the two sides fail to secure a deal. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. EU negotiators are scrambling to make a trade agreement with the US as the Aug. 1 tariff deadline closes in. But they are also stepping up preparations to strike back if the two sides fail to secure a deal. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Lutnick 'confident' US will get tariffs deal done with EU before Aug. 1 deadline WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday he was confident the United States can secure a trade deal with the European Union, but August 1 is a hard deadline for tariffs to kick in. Lutnick said he had just gotten off the phone with European trade negotiators and there was "plenty of room" for agreement. "These are the two biggest trading partners in the world, talking to each other. We'll get a deal done. I am confident we'll get a deal done," Lutnick said in an interview with CBS' "Face the Nation." President Donald Trump threatened on July 12 to impose a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union starting on August 1, after weeks of negotiations with the major U.S. trading partners failed to reach a comprehensive trade deal. Lutnick said that was a hard deadline. "Nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1, but they're going to start paying the tariffs on August 1," he said on CBS. Read more here WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday he was confident the United States can secure a trade deal with the European Union, but August 1 is a hard deadline for tariffs to kick in. Lutnick said he had just gotten off the phone with European trade negotiators and there was "plenty of room" for agreement. "These are the two biggest trading partners in the world, talking to each other. We'll get a deal done. I am confident we'll get a deal done," Lutnick said in an interview with CBS' "Face the Nation." President Donald Trump threatened on July 12 to impose a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union starting on August 1, after weeks of negotiations with the major U.S. trading partners failed to reach a comprehensive trade deal. Lutnick said that was a hard deadline. "Nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1, but they're going to start paying the tariffs on August 1," he said on CBS. Read more here Trump's tariffs are already shaping the holiday shopping season NEW YORK (AP) — With summer in full swing in the United States, retail executives are sweating a different season. It's less than 22 weeks before Christmas, a time when businesses that make and sell consumer goods usually nail down their holiday orders and prices. But President Donald Trump's vacillating trade policies have complicated those end-of-year plans. Balsam Hill, which sells artificial trees and other decorations online, expects to publish fewer and thinner holiday catalogs because the featured products keep changing with the tariff rates the president sets, postpones and revises. 'The uncertainty has led us to spend all our time trying to rejigger what we're ordering, where we're bringing it in, when it's going to get here,' Mac Harman, CEO of Balsam Hill parent company Balsam Brands, said. 'We don't know which items we're going to have to put in the catalog or not." Months of confusion over which foreign countries' goods may become more expensive to import has left a question mark over the holiday shopping season. U.S. retailers often begin planning for the winter holidays in January and typically finalize the bulk of their orders by the end of June. The seesawing tariffs already have factored into their calculations. Read more here NEW YORK (AP) — With summer in full swing in the United States, retail executives are sweating a different season. It's less than 22 weeks before Christmas, a time when businesses that make and sell consumer goods usually nail down their holiday orders and prices. But President Donald Trump's vacillating trade policies have complicated those end-of-year plans. Balsam Hill, which sells artificial trees and other decorations online, expects to publish fewer and thinner holiday catalogs because the featured products keep changing with the tariff rates the president sets, postpones and revises. 'The uncertainty has led us to spend all our time trying to rejigger what we're ordering, where we're bringing it in, when it's going to get here,' Mac Harman, CEO of Balsam Hill parent company Balsam Brands, said. 'We don't know which items we're going to have to put in the catalog or not." Months of confusion over which foreign countries' goods may become more expensive to import has left a question mark over the holiday shopping season. U.S. retailers often begin planning for the winter holidays in January and typically finalize the bulk of their orders by the end of June. The seesawing tariffs already have factored into their calculations. Read more here Hawaii coffee growers say Trump tariffs may curb demand (Bloomberg) — Hawaiian coffee farmers have a message for President Donald Trump: Steep tariffs on major exporters such as Brazil will end up hurting them, too. Hawaii at first glance might seem the obvious beneficiary of tariffs on coffee. It is the only state in the country where the tropical goods grow, with the vast majority of java imbibed by Americans imported from South America and Vietnam. Higher priced foreign imports should, in theory, make the island state's products comparatively more affordable. But growers say the opposite is true: rising prices across the board will hit consumers already struggling with inflation, curbing demand on everything from popular everyday roasts available at grocery stores to luxury Kona beans. While the discourse around trade and Trump's 'Buy American' mantra could draw attention to Hawaiian goods, the upshot for the state's farmers is that 'tariffs will probably will hurt us as much as it would hurt the mainland roasters,' said Suzanne Shriner, the vice president of the Kona Coffee Farmers Association and the president of Lions Gate Farms. Read more here (Bloomberg) — Hawaiian coffee farmers have a message for President Donald Trump: Steep tariffs on major exporters such as Brazil will end up hurting them, too. Hawaii at first glance might seem the obvious beneficiary of tariffs on coffee. It is the only state in the country where the tropical goods grow, with the vast majority of java imbibed by Americans imported from South America and Vietnam. Higher priced foreign imports should, in theory, make the island state's products comparatively more affordable. But growers say the opposite is true: rising prices across the board will hit consumers already struggling with inflation, curbing demand on everything from popular everyday roasts available at grocery stores to luxury Kona beans. While the discourse around trade and Trump's 'Buy American' mantra could draw attention to Hawaiian goods, the upshot for the state's farmers is that 'tariffs will probably will hurt us as much as it would hurt the mainland roasters,' said Suzanne Shriner, the vice president of the Kona Coffee Farmers Association and the president of Lions Gate Farms. Read more here

230,000 pages on Martin Luther King Jr assassination released by Trump admin
230,000 pages on Martin Luther King Jr assassination released by Trump admin

American Military News

time23 minutes ago

  • American Military News

230,000 pages on Martin Luther King Jr assassination released by Trump admin

President Donald Trump's administration announced on Monday that it was releasing more than 230,000 pages of files pertaining to the assassination of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Prior to the release of the files by the Trump administration, the documents had been sealed since 1977. In a Monday press release, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard confirmed that her office was releasing over 230,000 pages of files on King Jr.'s assassination in response to the president's executive order directing his administration to release classified documents regarding the assassinations of King, former President John F. Kennedy, and former Sen. Robert F. Kennedy. 'The American people have waited nearly 60 years to see the full scope of the federal government's investigation into Dr. King's assassination,' Gabbard stated. 'Under President Trump's leadership, we are ensuring that no stone is left unturned in our mission to deliver complete transparency on this pivotal and tragic event in our nation's history. I extend my deepest appreciation to the King family for their support.' Monday's press release explained that the newly-released documents include information on the investigation the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) conducted into King Jr.'s assassination, such as internal FBI memos regarding the case, potential leads, and information on a former cellmate of James Earl Ray, who initially pleaded guilty to assassinating King following the civil rights activist's death in 1968 before renouncing his guilty plea. READ MORE: Video: JFK assassination files released The press release noted that other documents released by the Trump administration include evidence of Ray fleeing the country following King Jr.'s assassination and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) records on the 'international hunt for the prime suspect in the assassination.' 'The American people deserve answers decades after the horrific assassination of one of our nation's great leaders,' Attorney General Pamela Bondi said in a Justice Department press release. 'The Department of Justice is proud to partner with Director Gabbard and the ODNI at President Trump's direction for this latest disclosure.' Dr. Alveda King, the niece of the former civil rights activist, said she was grateful that the Trump administration followed through with its commitment to provide transparency by releasing the documents regarding King Jr.'s assassination. 'My uncle lived boldly in pursuit of truth and justice, and his enduring legacy of faith continues to inspire Americans to this day,' Alveda King stated. 'While we continue to mourn his death, the declassification and release of these documents are a historic step towards the truth that the American people deserve.'

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