This Chinese robotaxi stock can more than double as production ramps up, analysts say

CNBC

2 days ago

Shares of Pony AI could be set to surge as the company ramps up robotaxi production, according to analysts at Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. BofA analyst Ming Hsun Lee reiterated a buy rating on the Chinese autonomous vehicle stock in a July 10 note, alongside a $21 per share price target. Lee's forecast implies that the stock can rally about 64% from Friday's $12.77 close. The analyst cited a recent meeting with Pony AI's management as a key reason for the optimistic view. The company is close to fully scaling its fleet of robotaxis, which will also help Pony AI improve its profitability, Lee said. Last week, Pony AI said it began the mass production of its seventh-generation robotaxi, with hopes of growing the fleet to 1,000 by the end of the year. PONY YTD mountain Pony AI stock in 2025. "Pony is on track to reach its goal of expanding the robotaxi fleet to 1,000 units by the end of 2025," the BofA analyst said. "In the coming 1-2 years, Pony will launch more robotaxi into services and increase the robotaxi density in China's tier-1 cities." Goldman Sachs analysts Allen Chang and Verena Jeng were similarly confident in a July 8 note, but are even more bullish on the stock. Chang, who also rates Pony AI a buy, has a $26 target on the stock, which would equate to roughly 104% appreciation. Bank of America's Merrill Lynch unit and Goldman Sachs were the two lead underwriters on Pony AI's initial public offering at $13 a share last November. "We expect 2026 to be the first full year of Robotaxi operation [gross margin] at a positive level, or 12%, and rising to 29% in 2027E, with a larger fleet size driving the revenues per car, and more generation 7 cars bringing down the costs per car, along with improving operation efficiency and enhanced software capability to further optimize hardware costs," the Goldman analysts wrote. Chang also held an upbeat meeting with Pony AI executives, he said, noting the company's bright outlook for growth in China. "Management stated that China is the largest ride-hailing market, accounting for 40% of global transaction value, followed by U.S. at 20%, and that in the China market, the four tier 1 cities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, accounted for 40% of the market, resulting in the company prioritizing the tier 1 cities in China for Robotaxis," Chang said. Shares have pulled back more than 11% so far in 2025. All of the analysts polled by FactSet have a buy rating on Pony AI stock, with their consensus price target calling for about 68% upside.