
Panasonic starts mass production at EV battery plant in US
Panasonic Energy held a ceremony on Monday. The company has invested 4 billion dollars to build the plant, its second in the US.
The facility's annual output capacity is expected to be enough to power 450,000 electric vehicles. There are plans to hire up to 4,000 workers.
But the full production that was initially targeted by the end of March 2027 has been effectively postponed. That's partly due to falling sales at the company's key customer, Tesla.
Another unfavorable factor for Panasonic is that US tax breaks for EV purchases are set to expire in September. This will likely mean a challenging business climate just as the company is trying to diversify its customer base.
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Japan Times
4 hours ago
- Japan Times
The Fed needs to tread carefully with this strange dollar
The U.S. economy hasn't seen tariffs like these in around 80 years. Given the lack of recent precedent, the Federal Reserve is right to wait on more evidence that consumer prices aren't spiking before proceeding with interest rate cuts. There's another reason to tread carefully in these uncertain times: The extremely unusual behavior of the U.S. dollar. Many economists — including Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran — expected the buck to strengthen when U.S. President Donald Trump implemented tariffs. In an essay published last November, Miran wrote that the exchange rate was "more likely than not' to appreciate alongside an improving trade balance, as it did during Trump's first trade war in 2018 and 2019. The so-called currency offset was critical to his view that the new duties wouldn't necessarily be passed through to consumers, at least not entirely. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made the same point during his confirmation hearings. Bafflingly, the dollar actually weakened for reasons that are still hotly debated (more on that shortly.) The U.S. dollar Index has declined by 6.8% since just before the "Liberation Day' tariffs unveiled on April 2 and it's down about 10% in 2025, the worst year-to-date performance in at least a quarter century. The median forecaster surveyed by Bloomberg expects the greenback to depreciate further over the next year or so. All else equal, you might expect the upward pressure on U.S. consumer prices to be even worse than tariffs alone would suggest. In the past, for a given move in developed nation currencies, economists have identified long-run pass-through into import prices on the order of 60%. (Estimates were around 40% for the U.S. specifically.) But pass-through is highly context-dependent and all else is never equal. So far, measures of consumer inflation remain relatively tame, either because the transmission will take time to materialize; retailers are "eating' the higher costs in the form of narrower margins; or because the doomsayers were just plain wrong. Realistically, it could even be some combination of the three. Given that range of possibilities, it's prudent to wait for the data to tell the story, exactly as Fed Chair Jerome Powell is currently planning. This is much to the chagrin of Trump, who regrettably insists that he can have tariffs and expeditiously lower policy rates too. In an ill-advised effort to get his way, he's exerting extraordinary public pressure on the independent central bank and its outgoing chair. So why is the dollar weakening in the first place? In the heat of the April selloff, many of us interpreted it as a sign of cracks in America's "exorbitant privilege.' The idea was that the U.S. — with the world's deepest and most liquid markets — had long occupied a special place at the center of the global financial system. That special status meant that we probably had a slightly stronger currency and relatively lower borrowing costs than would otherwise have been the case. When the the dollar weakened alongside rising borrowing costs after April 2, an argument advanced in market commentary and academia was that haphazard policymaking was eroding the American brand in the eyes of the world. Another somewhat related argument was tied to capital flows. At the time of the tariff announcement, investors around the world were extremely exposed to U.S. equities, thanks in part to the remarkable outperformance of the U.S.'s mega-cap growth stocks, known as the Magnificent 7. From the start of 2020 until March 2025, the S&P 500 Index had outperformed the rest of the developed world's equity markets by more than two-to-one. Global investors had piled into the stocks to get a piece of the action, often through unhedged positions. The hasty unwind of some holdings briefly created a macroeconomically significant wave of outflows. Plausible as these theories may be in explaining that wild week or so in early April, it's far from clear that the narratives around cracks in U.S. exorbitant privilege and equity outflows are still reasons to bet against the dollar going forward. As far as the former is concerned, America's brand may suffer additional damage from Trump's overt threats to Fed independence. But we're talking about a very nuanced change: a move from an extraordinarily special status in global markets to just very special. In practice, there's still no viable alternative to U.S. debt and its currency. European debt markets lack our market depth and China lacks our transparency, while Bitcoin is as volatile as a tech stock. Meanwhile, a solid streak of Treasury auctions has more or less ended the debate about caution among overseas investors. In the U.S. equity market, the panic is in the rearview mirror. Since bottoming on April 8, the S&P 500 has returned to all-time highs and is again outperforming the rest of the developed world's markets. The story isn't over, though. While the dollar hasn't weakened much more from its April lows, the durability of the move makes it more likely that currency weakness will have a meaningful impact on the economy, including consumer prices. In recent weeks, the greenback seems to have resumed its typical correlation with Treasury yields, opening the door to further declines if markets begin to price in significant rate cut expectations. That's why the Fed needs to proceed with extreme caution. Policymakers shouldn't lower borrowing costs and implicitly weaken the exchange rate until they can be sure that higher consumer prices aren't already in train. Without question, they should hold rates at their July meeting and the inflation data would need to stay quite tame to justify a cut at the subsequent meeting in September, at least in the absence of a labor market deterioration. The tariff experiment, coupled with the shock exchange-rate reaction, is an event study unlike any other in recent memory and the stewards of stable prices can't take anything for granted. Even if prices do jump, it's still possible that the uptick won't lead to a lasting increase in the rate of inflation and the Fed can eventually get on with easier monetary policy. But at this point, the responsible option is to wait and see how it plays out in the data. Jonathan Levin is a columnist focused on U.S. markets and economics. He is a CFA charterholder.

Japan Times
2 days ago
- Japan Times
EU's Von der Leyen to meet Trump in bid to clinch trade deal
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she will travel to Scotland this weekend to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump, as the two sides aim to conclude a trade deal ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline when 30% tariffs on the bloc's exports are otherwise due to kick in. After months of talks and shuttle diplomacy between Brussels and Washington, the two sides have been zeroing in on an agreement this past week that would see the EU face 15% tariffs on most of its trade. Limited exemptions are expected for aviation, some medical devices and generic medicines, several spirits, and a specific set of manufacturing equipment that the U.S. needs. Steel and aluminum imports would likely benefit from a quota under the arrangements under discussion but above that threshold they would face a higher tariff of 50%.


The Diplomat
2 days ago
- The Diplomat
International Labor Standards: The Missing Link in China-US Trade Negotiations
The China-U.S. trade war is often reduced to a dispute over cheap exports, but the real fault line runs deeper. China has built a powerful industrial strategy on the backs of low-cost labor and state-backed incentives, successfully attracting advanced multinationals and bringing their technology and supply chain resources into the country. While the United States outsourced its basic manufacturing, China turned so-called 'low-end' jobs into a launchpad for dominating high-value industries. This strategy has worked. BYD, once a low-tier battery maker, is now a top global electric vehicle manufacturer, beating Tesla in worldwide EV sales. Apple, for its part, poured billions into China – not just in assembly lines, but in R&D. As journalist Peter McGee documented in 'Apple and the Transformation of Chinese Manufacturing,' Apple's strict quality and engineering standards forced Chinese suppliers to level up. What began as low-cost outsourcing became a sophisticated, self-reinforcing innovation engine. This has become a key driver of innovation and global competitiveness in China's manufacturing sector. As the Chinese government aligned its labor policies with the profit motives of U.S. corporations, Washington debated tariffs. All this while, companies continue to rely on China's cheap labor to meet shareholder demands. China, in turn, gained leverage: any disruption to this arrangement would threaten the survival of many global brands. This entanglement has become so tight that it indirectly but powerfully shapes U.S. policy toward China, through the commercial interests and logistical dependence of American companies operating in China. But there's a darker cost buried in the foundations of this success. For over two decades, China Labor Watch has uncovered systemic labor issues in the supply chains of major U.S. and global brands operating in China. These are not isolated incidents, but are structural features of a model that exploits rural migrant workers, tolerates weak enforcement of labor laws, and prohibits independent unions. Global companies continue to profit from it. This exploitation does not just serve short-term commercial interests. It underpins China's ambitious vision of the 'great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation' and advancing its global hegemonic strategy of technological dominance and leadership. Even as parts of manufacturing move to Southeast Asia, those operations remain closely tethered to Chinese supply chains. The low-cost advantage remains China's unshakable core. If the U.S. wants to reduce its dependency and rebalance trade on fairer terms, it cannot ignore the labor question. It must confront China's labor governance head-on – even if doing so challenges American business interests in the short term. The Chinese government, for all its claims in its Constitution and the Communist Party's charter that China is a 'socialist state' that is 'led by the working class,' has built its economic ascent on the backs of exploited workers. While it publicly touts its commitment to workers' well-being, it has never admitted to the systemic nature of labor violations. Instead, the party-state continues to sidestep the issue through an official narrative of 'striving for workers' well-being,' and blame is deflected to multinational corporations. Many Chinese citizens, including some government officials, genuinely believe that the CCP's system can improve workers' lives. The structural roots of labor exploitation, inherent in the party's governance and economic model, are obscured. Labor rights activism thus becomes a sore subject for the government. To them, it is not just about a call for better wages or working conditions, but a direct challenge to the CCP's self-image. It exposes the ideological gulf between its promises and the lived experience of Chinese workers. If party leaders deny the existence of labor exploitation, they are telling an outright lie that will anger many workers; if they address the issue, it legitimizes that reality is at odds with the CCP's charter. This is precisely why labor advocates are treated with suspicion and often repression – but also some degree of caution. During the 2015 '709 Crackdown,' China jailed dozens of human rights lawyers, but took a softer approach with labor activists, quietly releasing them or assigning them jobs after detention to avoid international attention further escalating the issue. The goal was clear: to suppress attention and not provoke an international firestorm. A similar pattern played out in 2025, when Brazil sued BYD for alleged forced labor. Instead of lashing out at international critics, as it often does in response to human rights issues, China responded discreetly and promised an investigation. These examples reflect the nuance and sensitivity that the government applies to labor issues, as compared to human rights issues that it often rebuts. This different approach underscores the potential for labor issues to compel government action and, in turn, how international labor standards can be used as a tool for change. In other words, for the Chinese government, labor conditions resonate where abstract human rights appeals do not. From factory workers to office employees, the majority of China's workforce faces long hours, low wages, and little social protection. Labor violations aren't theoretical; they are everyday realities that could fuel domestic pressure and policy reform if exposed. Tools to address these problems already exist. In the United States, the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) and Section 307 of the Tariff Act have led to meaningful enforcement actions, even if many Uyghur workers are rarely found in primary factories supplying to the U.S. In the future, as additions to the UFLPA entity list are expected to slow, U.S. enforcement could shift toward broader supply chain interventions through the Withhold Release Orders (WROs), further expanding to address forced labor issues in supply chains, using enforcement to promote fairer labor standards. Yet despite the tools at Washington's disposal, labor concerns remain sidelined in mainstream trade discussions, drowned out by debates over tariffs, trade deficits, and subsidies. These traditional tools have struggled to move the needle on Chinese economic policy, which is largely built upon China's persistent low labor cost advantage. Labor, by contrast, is a pressure point the Chinese government is less prepared to resist, precisely because it implicates both the CCP's legitimacy and its economic model. Labor issues directly affect the immediate interests of the Chinese people, which concerns the government, and international labor standards can thus serve as an effective mechanism to expose the deeply rooted structural flaws in China's governance model. This is the moment for the United States and its allies in Europe to unite around labor standards as a strategic pillar of trade policy. As China-EU tensions continue to simmer, a coordinated, transatlantic approach, through shared standards, trade mechanisms, and enforcement frameworks, could significantly increase leverage over China's labor practices. This strategy not only advances sustainable global supply chains but also balances immediate commercial interests with long-term labor equity, benefiting workers in both the United States and China. Yes, there will be obstacles: political division among allies, corporate resistance, and China's likely counterattacks. But the stakes are too high to ignore. Fair labor standards not only strengthen global supply chains; they offer a pathway to a more just global economy, one where competitiveness does not rely on exploitation. Reshaping the rules of global trade will require more than rhetoric. It will require placing workers – American, Chinese, and others – at the center of policy. And that begins with recognizing that labor is not a side issue. It is the issue.