CIBC analyst reveals his top natural gas stock picks

Globe and Mail

24-06-2025

Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail's market strategist Scott Barlow
CIBC analyst Jamie Kubik provided more detail on his top picks in the natural gas space,
'Our investment preference continues to favor liquids-weighted Montney producers and we believe the secular tailwinds for natural gas should continue to see gas-weighted equities trade higher. Valuations on 2025E cash flow have continued to increase, and we believe 2026E valuations also have further room to expand. Given the subdued response in gas-directed drilling, we believe the fundamental outlook for North America remains supportive, particularly with a backdrop of increasing LNG export demand, strong expected power demand, and sector capital discipline ... Our top gas-weighted ideas include Kelt, NuVista, and Tourmaline … AAV and BIR demonstrate the highest cash flow torque to stronger gas pricing in 2026E. ... The cash flow change is relative to our base case price expectations in 2026E, which is running US$4/mcf NYMEX. We see AAV, BIR and TOU as providing the most torque to an improving NYMEX price environment... [technicals] NVA shows a new monthly buy signal more than $14, with a technical price objective toward $17.00-$17.90 levels … TVE has already broken out, exhibiting a cup & handle like pattern – often associated with accumulation. Share price has a technical measured-move toward the $6.20 level. KEL looks poised for a technical breakout from a three-year consolidation pattern that measures toward $9.20-$11.25 levels. TOU has a new weekly buy-signal. '
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Canacord Genuity analyst Matthew Lee raised targets on two of the major banks in a Tuesday research report,
'The banks reinforce their hulls as they head into opaque waters. The biggest story of Q2 was the uniform decision by management teams to take large performing provisions to account for the current state of geopolitical opacity. On average, the Big 6 put through 17bps of performing PCLs, more than the prior three quarters combined. In our view, this should help soften the earnings impact of unforeseen economic adversity and is easily digestible given the group's capital position. Post-quarter, we have raised our total PCL expectations but view credit as relatively benign and unlikely to impede the banks' path to high single-digit EPS growth for F25E. As operational visibility improves, we note that each of the banks can release allowances, which could be a source of earnings growth in F26 but is not yet built into our forecast … Loan growth across the group was muted in the quarter as both consumers and businesses were hesitant to deploy capital in an uncertain geopolitical environment. While much still depends on global trade decisions, we expect commercial lending will likely be the first point of acceleration with companies eager to make investments if tariffs stabilize … our targets are maintained for BMO, CM, RY, and TD, and increased to $81.00 for BNS and $138.00 for NA'
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RBC Capital Markets analyst Josh Wolfson assessed valuations in the gold sector,
'We assess valuation trends at spot gold prices for ( 1 ) the broader gold equity sector over time, ( 2 ) companies relative to their historical trading ranges, ( 3 ) companies relative to their peer groups, and ( 4 ) spreads on typically pair -traded equities, given similar liquidity, scale, or correlation .
'Royalty valuations have remained stable, while senior producer valuations have rebounded slightly . At spot gold prices, our royalty coverage trades at 1.89 x P/NAV, compared to 1.81x/ 1.86x on a 1Y/ 3Y basis . Our senior producer coverage trades at 1.03x P/NAV, compared to 1.04x/1.31x on a 1Y/3Y basis . We note that producer valuations increased from near-lows of 0 .92x at our prior mid -May publication of this report .
'Notable company valuations relative to both their 1Y average and the 1Y spread vs . the peer group. Discounted: Barrick. Premium: Triple Flag, Sandstorm, and AngloGold Ashanti'
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