The Big Bang's Glowing 'Echo' May Be Something Else Entirely
Technically, this afterglow is known as Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) radiation, and it's been traveling through space for more than 13 billion years, since soon after the Big Bang first went bang. It can be picked up by our most advanced telescopes.
Now, researchers from Nanjing University in China and the University of Bonn in Germany have run calculations suggesting we've overestimated the strength of the CMB. In fact, it might not even be there at all.
The rocking of the cosmological boat, as it were, is driven by new evidence of early-type galaxies (ETGs). Recent data from the James Webb Space Telescope suggests these ETGs might account for some or even all of the CMB, depending on the simulation used.
"Our results are a problem for the standard model of cosmology," says physicist Pavel Kroupa, from the University of Bonn. "It might be necessary to rewrite the history of the Universe, at least in part."
Scientists already know plenty about ETGs, which are usually elliptical in shape. What's new is that recent studies, and this latest interpretation of them, point to these types of galaxies having formed even earlier than previous models accounted for.
If that timeline shifts, then so does the pattern of radiation spreading out across the Universe. In simple terms, the Universe may have moved through its initial phase of gas surges and galaxy formation quicker than we imagined.
"The Universe has been expanding since the Big Bang, like dough that is rising," says Kroupa. "This means that the distance between galaxies is increasing constantly."
"We have measured how far apart elliptical galaxies are from one another today. Using this data and taking into account the characteristics of this group of galaxies, we were then able to use the speed of expansion to determine when they first formed."
This earlier estimate for the formation of these ETGs means that their brightness could emerge "as a non-negligible source of CMB foreground contamination", the researchers write.
We should bear in mind that this research is still in its preliminary stages. It's not time yet to start pulping scientific textbooks – or whatever the modern equivalent is. Rewriting Wikipedia, perhaps? But this research certainly raises some big questions.
Given the almost unimaginable timescales and distances involved, it's difficult for astrophysicists to always be precise. The researchers suggest anywhere from 1.4 percent to 100 percent of the CMB could be explained by their new models.
What's certain is that as our space telescopes and analysis systems get more sophisticated, we're learning more about the surrounding Universe than ever before – and that in turn means some previous assumptions may have to be readjusted, including those about the very formation of the Universe itself.
"In the view of the results documented here, it may become necessary to consider [other] cosmological models," write the researchers in their published paper.
The research has been published in Nuclear Physics B.
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(Incidentally, the BICEP Array predecessor BICEP2 made its own claim of detecting smoking-gun swirls in the CMB in 2014, although those putative features were soon shown to instead be the work of contaminating dust in our own Milky Way.) At the South Pole, with a new five-meter aperture microwave telescope plus an array of nine smaller telescopes and state-of-the-art detectors, CMB-S4 would take an ultradeep look at roughly 3 percent of the sky. It would be much more sensitive than all of its predecessors and more easily able to cut through any contaminating dust. To add to CMB-S4's utility and allure, the project also planned to include two new six-meter telescopes on the summit of Cerro Toco in Chile's Atacama Desert. High, dry and with a stable atmosphere above, that site is already home to the Simons Observatory, a newly operational set of telescopes that are conducting similar cosmological observations. The additional CMB-S4 telescopes would make nightly observations of huge swaths of galaxy-studded sky in an effort to map visible matter, better understand the dark universe and catch astrophysical transient events in action. Altogether, there would have been 550,000 detectors spread between CMB-S4's two sites, giving the project an unprecedented chance to hunt for clues of cosmic inflation in the universe's oldest light. 'I'm kind of mesmerized by how much science there still is to get from the CMB,' says Suzanne Staggs, a physicist at Princeton University and co-director of the Simons Observatory. 'It provides a unique opportunity to understand the early universe.' With such a compelling science case—and such strong support from multiple authoritative panels planning the near future of U.S. research—CMB-S4 seemed almost inevitable for a time. 'This project has scientifically been through about every appraisal that it could be, with glowing reviews,' Parriott says. Optimistically, the team hoped it might be able to start construction at the two sites in the near future. Then delays started piling up, and a series of rude awakenings began. The Big Chill Despite its status as a scientific priority, CMB-S4's not-so-glowing fate may have been foretold years ago. Chief among its challenges was that prized South Pole location because, while the pole might be ideal for astronomy, it's not the easiest place on Earth to build and operate sophisticated science facilities. Antarctica is the coldest, driest, windiest, most remote continent on Earth; it demolishes infrastructure without even trying. And NSF, which manages the U.S. Antarctic program on behalf of the government, has known for more than a decade that the existing facilities are in desperate need of maintenance. 'If someone hasn't been following this for a while, they might assume that this is the government pulling back from all kinds of projects,' says Mitch Ambrose, director of science policy news at the American Institute of Physics. 'But in the case of CMB-S4, I think there's a longer history in terms of the challenges with the infrastructure in Antarctica that have been brewing.' In 2011 the White House and NSF convened a panel to evaluate the logistical challenges associated with maintaining U.S. scientific leadership in Antarctica. The panel's report, released after visits to three Antarctic research stations, noted that activities there 'are very well managed but suffer from an aging infrastructure' and are hamstrung by 'the lack of a capital budget,' which it described as 'a situation that no successful corporation would ever permit to persist.' 'The status quo is simply not an option,' the report continued, after noting such deficiencies as a warehouse where forklifts fall through the floor, buildings with gaps so large that snow blows inside and the repeated forced choice between repairing a roof or conducting a science experiment. A report from the U.S. National Academy of Sciences followed and also identified the need to shore up crucial Antarctic infrastructure. NSF, correspondingly and with a limited budget, began planning some upgrades. Then 2020 and the COVID pandemic came along, with disruptions to site access and supply chain issues that sent price tags through those crumbling roofs. 'A lot of that planning really went off the rails during the pandemic in a major way,' Parriott says. 'As somebody who's spent a lot of time thinking about the U.S. Antarctic program, it's kind of heartbreaking to see what's become of it.' Since then NSF has struggled to make the required upgrades—a situation that became an ominous portent for projects like CMB-S4. In 2023 the agency paused new projects at the South Pole. In May 2024 NSF definitively told CMB-S4 that the South Pole was off-limits; buildings were sinking into the snow, electrical power was insufficient, and there wasn't enough room to house essential personnel. As a result, NSF officially declined to move the project toward its next design milestone. 'When the announcement came out a year ago, I was completely shocked,' Staggs says. Afterward NSF and the DOE had a simple question for CMB-S4: Could the project proceed without the South Pole site? What if Chile was the only option? Charting a New Course On June 4 the collaboration submitted a proposal to both agencies that outlined a path forward in Chile at roughly half the cost of the original plan. By constructing one large telescope plus a smaller array of dishes at Cerro Toco and leaning heavily on data-sharing and collaborations with the South Pole Telescope, the Simons Observatory and others, the CMB-S4 collaboration reckoned it could still achieve its scientific objectives, albeit more slowly and less robustly. 'In the June plan, the idea was: 'Okay, we're scaling back; we're working with these other experiments so that allows us to build less.' And the expectation was that we could get telescopes on the air as early as 2032 ... with combined results in 2040, 2041,' Carlstrom says. 'You know, when I started this [in 2013], I thought, 'This is going to be great; we'll get on the air in 2020, and I can retire in 2025.' Staggs, the Simons Observatory's co-director, says both projects' leaders met multiple times over the past year to talk about the revised plan. 'Even prior to that, because there was always a plan for part of the CMB-S4 to be in Chile, we had envisioned that eventually the two projects would be working very closely together, at least operationally, but with no details laid out yet,' Staggs says. 'And we were sort of hoping we would be starting on that right around now—because, with the news that they would need to move to Chile, it seemed it was going to be a good opportunity for us to work together more.' But under intense and mounting budgetary pressures, a balance sheet filled with fixed costs for operating cherished existing facilities and a backlog of other projects awaiting construction, the agencies decided to withdraw anyway. The agencies 'just had really hard choices to make,' Ambrose says. 'This is the biggest tension point here: the community seems to really want this thing, and yet the agencies aren't willing to do it.' Knocked down hard, scientists who had planned on CMB-S4's success are now focused on getting back up—and charting a new path forward. 'It's not that the search for primordial gravitational waves won't happen; it just won't advance as rapidly as we had hoped,' Spergel says. 'I hope this ends up being an opportunity to rethink how we do the science and not a decision to step away from doing what is really exciting and compelling science.' In a statement sent to Scientific American, a DOE spokesperson reiterated that 'the scientific case for CMB exploration is strong and compelling' and said that the agency 'plans to continue supporting CMB research,' which is described as a core component of the DOE's high-energy physics program. That includes investigating opportunities to make near-term upgrades to existing experiments at the South Pole and in Chile. (NSF declined to provide comment.) 'If these existing projects weren't there at all, that would be also a different situation,' Dunkley says. 'We'll have to see how things evolve on that front: How much upgrading or continuation of the projects that are already running can be achieved?' One possible solution, Spergel says, is to build as much as possible in Chile to do as much science as possible from there—and then pivot to the South Pole if needed. Another possibility that most U.S. researchers seem less eager to mention is to effectively cede leadership in CMB studies to other nations. Japan's space agency, for instance, is leading development of LiteBIRD (Light Satellite for the Study of B-mode Polarization and Inflation from Cosmic Background Radiation Detection), a space-based CMB mission, for launch in the early 2030s. And on the Tibetan Plateau, China's Ali Cosmic Microwave Background Polarization Telescope (AliCPT) has recently completed the first of two planned construction phases, with scientific observations soon to begin. The U.S. is involved in both efforts, chiefly via hardware contributions from the federal National Institute of Standards and Technology, but only plays a supporting role. Despite continued U.S. support for CMB experiments in Chile, perhaps the long-sought confirmation of the strangest chapter of cosmic history will come from elsewhere. 'We'll get there eventually,' Carlstrom says. 'It's just going to be much harder to do without the South Pole, much harder to do without substantial new instrumentation wherever you are, including Chile.'