Middle East Tensions, CBO Track Record, US Gold Card, NYC Mayoral Primary
This week, how will the United States' involvement in the Iran-Israel war affect markets and hopes for cooperation in the Middle East? And, an interview with the Director of the Congressional Budget Office on the agency's role in predicting the fiscal impact of the "Big Beautiful Bill." Plus, will President Trump's "Gold Card" attract foreign investment to the US? Later, how Zohran Mamdani's success in the New York City mayoral primary election tells the story of the shift within the Democratic Party and what it means for business in the city. (Source: Bloomberg)
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Yahoo
32 minutes ago
- Yahoo
At least 34 killed in Israeli strikes in Gaza as ceasefire prospects inch closer
At least 34 people were killed across Gaza by Israeli strikes, health staff say, as Palestinians face a growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza and ceasefire prospects inch closer. The strikes began late on Friday and continued into Saturday morning, among others killing 12 people at the Palestine Stadium in Gaza City, which was sheltering displaced people, and eight more living in apartments, according to staff at Shifa hospital where the bodies were brought. Six others were killed in southern Gaza when a strike hit their tent in Muwasi, according to the hospital. The strikes come as US President Donald Trump said there could be a ceasefire agreement within the next week. Taking questions from reporters in the Oval Office on Friday, the president said: 'We're working on Gaza and trying to get it taken care of.' An official with knowledge of the situation told The Associated Press that Israel's minister for strategic affairs, Ron Dermer, will arrive in Washington next week for talks on Gaza's ceasefire, Iran and other subjects. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak to the media. Talks have been on and since Israel broke the latest ceasefire in March, continuing its military campaign in Gaza and furthering the dire humanitarian crisis. Some 50 hostages remain in Gaza, fewer than half of them believed to be still alive. They were among some 250 hostages taken when Hamas attacked Israel on October 7 2023, sparking the 21-month-long war. The war has killed more than 56,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza's Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants. It says more than half of the dead were women and children. There is hope among hostage families that Mr Trump's involvement in securing the recent ceasefire between Israel and Iran might exert more pressure for a deal in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is riding a wave of public support for the Iran war and its achievements, and he could feel he has more space to move toward ending the war in Gaza, something his far-right governing partners oppose. Hamas has repeatedly said it is prepared to free all the hostages in exchange for an end to the war in Gaza. Mr Netanyahu says he will end the war only once Hamas is disarmed and exiled, something the group has rejected. Meanwhile, hungry Palestinians are enduring a catastrophic situation in Gaza. After blocking all food for more than two months, Israel has allowed only a trickle of supplies into the territory since mid-May. Efforts by the United Nations to distribute the food have been plagued by armed gangs looting trucks and by crowds of desperate people offloading supplies from convoys. Palestinians have also been shot and wounded while on their way to get food at newly formed aid sites, run by the American and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, according to Gaza's health officials and witnesses. Palestinian witnesses say Israeli troops have opened fire at crowds on the roads heading toward the sites. Israel's military said it was investigating incidents in which civilians had been harmed while approaching the sites.
33 minutes ago
Mamdani's New York mayoral primary win exposes Democratic divide
Just hours after Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani declared victory in New York 's mayoral primary on Wednesday, a small group of business leaders convened with Mayor Eric Adams, who bypassed the Democratic primary and is instead running in the general election as an independent. Attendees were focused on strategizing how to prevent Mamdani, a 33-year-old state assemblymember, from winning the mayoralty -- and assessing whether Adams was the strongest contender to oppose him in November. Among those present was former NYC mayoral candidate and former hedge fund executive Whitney Tilson, who recently shared a debate stage with Mamdani. Tilson described Mamdani as 'very charming and charismatic,' but added he sharply disagrees with Mamdani's policies and '[About] 5% of New York City voters picked him… It's a totally rigged closed primary.' Tilson told ABC News when it became clear the race was between two people, he had hoped former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo would win. He said he would '...continue for the next 130 days what I began in earnest 45 days ago -- to make sure Zohran Mamdani, an unqualified radical socialist, does not become mayor of our city.' Several other vexed moderate-minded Democrats, beyond the handful in the meeting with Adams, are making similar schemes, a Democratic source with knowledge of the conversations confirmed to ABC. That source suggested that some are mulling over boosting centrist lawyer Jim Walden, who is running as an independent, as a potential spoiler. And billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman (who supported Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election) pledged to bankroll whichever viable challenger vows to take on Mamdani in November. Linda Yaccarino, CEO of X, wrote that Mamdani's win was "disastrous" and that she, Ackman, and others must 'figure out a way to save New York' in response to his promise. However, former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio said he's not aware of any progressives who are 'quaking in their boots about a particular scenario' and that serious Mamdani supporters' worries come not from threats, but 'because we should be worried of the unknown, and no one should take this general election lightly.' 'It's more than ironic that Ackman thinks he has anything left to say to anybody in the Democratic Party after his activities last few months,' de Blasio told ABC News. 'As some of these people are flailing about, they are only reminding people that Zohran's positions are going to be the majority positions in this town.' The former mayor, whom Mamdani said was the best in his lifetime, said he doesn't believe the accusations of radicalism or extremism will stick, pointing to Mamdani's strong margins from Tuesday night. 'I think the magnitude of the victory has woken up a lot of people who were buying into stereotypes -- unfair stereotypes -- of Zohran,' de Blasio said. 'You can't be extreme if such a clear majority want you. To use a New York City phrase: he's instantly been koshered." Mamdani isn't shielding himself from the incoming, either. Longtime New York powerbroker Kathryn Wylde told ABC News Mamdani called her Thursday evening, and expressed interest in meeting with the CEOs whom Wylde said were 'extremely concerned' with his economic and fiscal policies. Wylde agreed -- and plans to host a meeting between Mamdani and any of the interested 300 plus executives who are members of Partnership for the City, where she serves as CEO, during the third week in July. 'The business community will not determine who is mayor. But we want whomever is mayor to have relationships and understand the issues that will keep our city strong,' Wylde said. His campaign told ABC News he's committed to meeting 'with anyone and everyone.' 'As Zohran has said throughout this campaign, he'll meet with anyone and everyone to move our city forward. Zohran's committed to delivering an administration of excellence that delivers an affordable and safe city for everyone, not just the wealthy and well-connected,' Mamdani campaign spokesperson Lekha Sunder said in a statement. Mark Gorton, founder of LimeWire and chairman of Tower Research Capital hedge fund, said he donated $250,000 to Cuomo's super PAC, Fix the City, after it became clear that his preferred candidate, Brad Lander, would not win the primary. However, Gorton acknowledged to ABC News he did so reluctantly. 'I was like, 'I'm tired of being on the outside -- I want to be on the inside,' he said. Still, he knew his top concerns -- support for cyclists, reducing car traffic and expanding bus service -- were not priorities for Cuomo. 'Cuomo was a disaster,' the activist, who started a non-profit focused on New York's streets nearly three decades ago, said. 'He didn't even show up at the candidate forum and drives around in a Dodge Charger.' Gorton said he felt relieved when Cuomo lost, noting that both Mamdani and Lander are strong on the issues he cares about. If November's election were held today, he said, he would vote for Mamdani. When asked whether he would contribute to Mamdani's campaign, Gorton hesitated. 'He doesn't need my money. Money doesn't always make a difference," he said. Some Democrats in New York's Congressional delegation are distancing themselves from Mamdani. Speaking on WNYC's "The Brian Lehrer Show" on Thursday Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand declined to say who she would endorse. When pressed, she said: 'I vote in Albany,' and will leave the decision to New York City voters. Rep. Tom Suozzi, who represents a Long Island swing-district that includes some parts of Queens, posted on X that he continues to have 'serious concerns' about Mamdani. Yet some of the highest ranking of the delegation seem open to Mamdani. Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer and House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries, both of New York, praised Mamdani after his apparent primary win. Showing particular support for his campaign's focus on affordability, both vowed to meet with him. Rep. Gregory Meeks, (D-NY), also told ABC News he was looking to speak with the presumptive nominee. Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY), the most senior Jewish member of the House of Representatives, went even further. After backing one of Mamdani's challengers during the primary, Nadler has since endorsed Mamdani's general election bid. And former president Bill Clinton, who backed Cuomo, wrote on X that he is 'wishing [Mamdani] much success in November and beyond as you look to bring New Yorkers together.' Veteran Democratic strategist Lis Smith, who once worked for Cuomo and is now a critic, told ABC News centrist Democrats are partially to blame for the former governor's loss and suggested they look in the mirror. 'It is baffling that they decided to cast their lot with a disgraced former governor who was run out of office and had no new ideas or inspirational message to offer New Yorkers. Spare us the freak out,' said Smith. 'This just seems like the last gasp of the establishment and the affiliated billionaires trying to stop a grassroots moment that, frankly, they helped fuel.'
CNN
36 minutes ago
- CNN
Analysis: Final battle damage assessment of US strikes on Iran will be key in US push for Iran nuclear deal
As the Trump administration looks to quickly pivot from military strikes to a diplomatic deal on Iran's nuclear program, the final military and intelligence assessment on the recent US strikes will be critical in informing what the Trump administration needs to accomplish in future Iran negotiations. Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff will need to use that final battle damage assessment – including a detailed summary of the facilities' damage and the locale of the nuclear material – to help formulate the US strategy for diplomatic efforts to completely halt the regime's ability to develop a nuclear weapon in the future, current and former US officials explained. 'You're not going to the negotiation assuming that the other side is going to tell you everything you need to know about the state of their program,' explained Pranay Vaddi, a former senior official for nonproliferation at the National Security Council. 'We need to have a baseline that is established by the US intelligence community before that,' Vaddi added. 'If the Trump administration is committed to some kind of deal still – which it makes statements on – they need to know what they were able to get through military action, compared to what they need to get through the diplomatic process.' President Donald Trump continues to claim that Iran's nuclear program has been 'fully obliterated,' which does not mirror an early assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency, finding that the attack did not destroy the core components of the country's nuclear program. The early assessment has split lawmakers on the effectiveness of the strikes. And Trump's absolutist pronouncements could also complicate Witkoff's job, officials said. Even if the facilities themselves have been badly damaged, it does not mean that the nuclear program itself has been wholly destroyed. Prior to the US strikes, experts and former officials had expressed skepticism about the idea that the nuclear program could be militarily destroyed, noting that there would still be people with the knowledge to support it. 'The basic problem is that the equivalency between the success of the bombing and the success of ending the nuclear program is putting pressure on having this narrative that there isn't a threat,' said Beth Sanner, former deputy director for national intelligence. 'If you think that you've eliminated the nuclear program then you are not dealing with the fact that there is some residual of that program.' And while the final battle damage assessment will be important to take into account, future negotiations with Iran should prioritize getting the UN's nuclear watchdog back on the ground in Iran, said former officials who worked on previous Iran negotiations. 'I don't know that there will be any assessment that I think is fully viable until there are inspectors on the ground,' said a former senior US official who worked on past Iran negotiations. 'We must recreate the kind of intrusive verification and monitoring that was in the 2015 deal.' The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had a presence in Iran before the 2015 nuclear deal signed during the Obama administration – a deal which Trump pulled the US out of during his first term – but the presence of IAEA inspectors in the country drastically increased as a result of that deal. 'The deal meant there were inspectors on the ground 24/7, there was electronic monitoring, there was a process by which – that didn't exist anywhere else in the world – that if there was intelligence about a suspected site, if Iran, over a period of some days, couldn't satisfy the IAEA that there was a reason the IAEA could go and inspect,' the official explained, citing some benefits of the IAEA inspection efforts. But this week the Iranian parliament this week suspended its work with the IAEA, because of the 'regrettable role' played by the agency's chief Rafael Grossi, Iran's foreign minister said. Iran accused Grossi of facilitating the US and Israeli strikes in Iran, citing an IAEA report a day prior to the Israeli strike, which declared Iran was violating its nuclear non-proliferation obligations. This move follows years of Iran making moves to restrict the agency's oversight of it's program. For example, in 2022 Iran responded by removing surveillance cameras from key sites after IAEA censured Iran over uranium particles found at the undeclared sites. The steps that would need to be taken as part of any verifiable deal on Iran's nuclear program would likely include: destroying elements of the program that still exist, monitoring any further activity, blending highly enriched uranium, and declaring parts of the program that are in use. In order to prepare to take those steps, inspectors on the ground would be essential, former officials pressed. 'I think it's been a long time since the US intelligence assessments have been accepted globally as authoritative when it comes to Iran's nuclear program. They would certainly be challenged by Iran. In order to have a successful negotiation everybody needs to at least agree on the source of facts,' said Laura Holgate, the former US Ambassador to the United Nations International Organizations in Vienna. 'The IAEA will be needed to develop a new baseline of what exactly Iran has, where it is, and what its condition is in, and that's going to take time, and it will be based on Iran's cooperation,' Holgate added. With the IAEA access being diminished over the years and virtually nonexistent at this moment, the world now has large gaps in its knowledge of Iran's nuclear inventory. That is particularly true when it comes to the locale of Iran's enriched uranium. Trump administration officials have said in recent days that the stockpile was not moved ahead of the US strikes but the IAEA said Iran may have moved some of the enriched uranium out of the sites before they were attacked. Vice President JD Vance said the day after the strikes that working on what to do about that fuel would be a priority for the US. 'We're going to work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel. And that's one of the things that we're going to have conversations with the Iranians about,' Vance said. Republican Rep. Michael McCaul, a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, cited the importance of having 'a full accounting' following an all-member classified briefing on Capitol Hill earlier this week. 'There is enriched uranium in the facilities that moves around, but that was not the intent or the mission,' McCaul said. 'We need a full accounting. That's why Iran has to come to the table directly with us, so the IAEA can account for every ounce of enriched uranium that's there, I don't think it's going out of the country, I think it's at the facilities.' The final US military 'battle damage assessment could take days or even weeks to complete,' multiple sources familiar with the Pentagon's process told CNN. CIA Director John Ratcliffe on Wednesday said the agency underscored that a broad intelligence community effort is ongoing to determine the impact of the US strikes on three of the country's nuclear sites on Saturday. The Trump administration was already working on possible terms to offer Iran to bring them back to the able for nuclear deal talks before the US military strikes occurred. But if they are able to pull Iran back to the table, they will have to then enter into much more technical talks to put a legitimate and verifiable deal into place. 'I think that you want to strike while the iron is hot, to try and get them to the table while they're feeling weak,' Sanner said. 'One of the key requirements for the negotiation is setting mechanisms for cataloging Iran's residual capabilities in order to have that conversation and ultimately a deal that is worth the paper it is written on.'
