CPI inflation in July likely to hit historical low, FY26 to be at 3% below RBI estimate of 3.7%: SBI
"We believe that the upcoming July 2025 CPI inflation data is set to breach the lowest ever historical print," the report said.
SBI projects that the average CPI inflation for FY26 will be between 3.0-3.2 per cent, which is significantly lower than the RBI's estimate of 3.7 per cent and well below the average of 4.6 per cent recorded in FY25.
This sharp moderation in inflation comes on the back of a recent 50 basis points rate cut by the RBI in its June policy.
The report noted that with benign inflation expectations in place, the central bank is now focusing on supporting capital formation to ensure more durable and sustained growth.
As noted by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its resolution, the panel remains data-dependent while deciding the future course of monetary policy. The aim is to strike a balance between growth and inflation, the report added.
Looking ahead, SBI sees the current inflation trend as firmly benign, even as external trade-related disruptions and unpredictable price movements continue to pose risks.
Still, the report hinted at the possibility of another 25 basis points rate cut "sooner than later" to further support economic growth as global uncertainties make it necessary to build for the future.
It stated "the plot seems to be spiced with a further 25 bps rate cut (sooner than later) to give an adrenaline boost to the economic juggernaut as global developments necessitate us to build today for future".
India's CPI inflation in June 2025 fell to 77-month low at 2.10 per cent, down from 2.82 per cent in May 2025 and 5.08 per cent in June 2024.
This decline was largely driven by a sharp fall in food inflation, which also hit a 77-month low of -0.20 per cent. The fall in prices of key food items such as vegetables, pulses, and spices contributed significantly to this decline.
However, the report flagged concerns around imported inflation, which continued to rise for the 13th consecutive month in June 2025. Higher gold and silver prices were the main contributors to this increase.
The share of imported inflation in the overall CPI build-up rose to 71 per cent in June 2025, up from 50 per cent in May.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Times of Oman
17 hours ago
- Times of Oman
India: Despite slowdown in consumption, office spaces continued to be major attraction for developers
New Delhi: Despite the slowdown in consumption trends, the office space segment remains a major attraction for real estate developers. The growth of retail consumption has slowed down due to a shift in consumption trends toward travel and high inflation in the mid-segment, according to a report by HDFC Securities. The organised retail continues to maintain high occupancy levels, above 90 per cent in Tier 1 cities, due to stable demand from the fashion, food & beverage, and electronics categories. The shift in consumer spending toward travel and experiences, along with inflation pressures on mid-segment consumers, is contributing to a more cautious outlook in this space, the report added. The first quarter of Financial Year 2026 is shaping up as a strong quarter for India's annuity-focused real estate segment, with office spaces showing marked resilience compared to a cooling retail environment. The sector continues to exhibit robust structural demand during Q1FY26, although Q4FY25 saw a decline due to approval delays and weaker EOI-to-sales conversion headwinds. Events like trade wars and market corrections impacted sentiment. However, Q1FY26 begins on a stronger footing. Gross office leasing is steadily increasing, and vacancy levels are trending downward, driven by robust demand from Global Capability Centres (GCCs), the BFSI sector, and flex-space operators. Prime business districts--especially in Bengaluru, Pune, and Hyderabad--are witnessing annual rental growth of 5-7 per cent, signalling sustained occupier confidence. The tightening vacancy rates in these micro-markets reflect a return of corporate demand and growing acceptance of hybrid office formats. Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG)-compliant assets are also gaining traction, aligning with occupier preferences for sustainable real estate. Developers with large annuity portfolios are positioned strongly, as they are likely to benefit from a mid-to-long-term consumption revival, despite current headwinds in the retail segment. On the other hand, the residential segment experienced a strong rebound in Q1 FY26, driven by robust sales and resilient demand across mid-premium and luxury categories.
Times of Oman
17 hours ago
- Times of Oman
Structural deposit pressure on Indian banks eases due to RBI's liquidity steps: Fitch
New Delhi: Indian banks are seeing a marked easing in structural deposit pressures, helped by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) aggressive liquidity support measures in 2025, according to Fitch Ratings. The global credit rating agency noted that since January, the RBI has injected approximately Rs 5.6 trillion, around 2 per cent of total system assets, into the banking system through government securities purchases. This has led to a liquidity surplus since March and significantly softened funding conditions for banks. Fitch believes that these steps have alleviated the intense competition for deposits that Indian banks had been grappling with over the past year. Structural deposit pressures had previously built up as loan growth outpaced deposit mobilization, driving up the loan-to-deposit ratio and forcing banks to raise deposit rates to attract funds. However, the RBI's liquidity easing, combined with a 100 basis point cut in the cash reserve ratio (CRR), is expected to release an additional Rs 2.7 trillion in liquidity in phases, has reversed that trend. The availability of surplus liquidity has already started driving down the cost of fresh deposits. Although Fitch anticipates a 30 basis point contraction in net interest margins for FY26 due to the immediate downward repricing of nearly half of the outstanding loans, it expects margin pressures to ease in FY27 as deposit costs fall further and the benefits of lower CRR requirements take hold. The report also points out that loan growth for FY25 is projected at 11 per cent, slightly above nominal GDP growth of 9.8 per cent, which may reflect rising risk appetite among banks. Despite the relief from structural deposit pressure, Fitch cautions that this could reverse if the RBI tightens liquidity in response to inflation or currency volatility. Such a move could again elevate funding costs and compress margins. In conclusion, Fitch asserts that the RBI's liquidity easing has played a central role in relieving structural deposit pressures in the Indian banking system.
Times of Oman
17 hours ago
- Times of Oman
India's electronics boom offsets slump in traditional exports: Report
New Delhi: Driven by falling gold and crude oil shipments, India's merchandise imports show a declining trend in June 2025; however, exports remained flat, said Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) in its latest analysis. The June 2025 trade data released by the Ministry of Commerce on Tuesday shows that merchandise exports stood at USD 35.14 billion, a negligible increase of 0.05 per cent compared to June 2024. However, key sectors like electronics exports surged 47.1 per cent to USD 2.8 billion, reflecting rising iPhone and smartphone shipments to major markets, such as the U.S., in anticipation of higher U.S. tariffs. However, exports of traditional items, such as gems and jewellery, fell by 20.4 per cent to USD 1.78 billion, and petroleum product exports dropped 15.9 per cent to USD 4.6 billion, due to softening global demand and lower crude prices. On the import side, total goods imports stood at USD 53.9 billion, down 3.7 per cent from the previous year. This decline is mainly led by a sharp 25.7 per cent fall in gold imports, which dropped to USD 7.5 billion, and about an 8.4 per cent decrease in crude and petroleum imports, totalling USD 13.8 billion. Coal and coke imports also declined by 19.1 per cent to USD 7.75 billion, reflecting improved domestic supply. Electronics imports rose by 9.5 per cent to USD 8.4 billion, and machinery and computer imports grew 8.5 per cent to USD 4.4 billion. This suggests that domestic investment in assembly and manufacturing remains healthy. Exports to the U.S. climbed 23.5 per cent to USD 8.3 billion, reinforcing America's status as India's top export market. In contrast, exports to China were modest at USD 1.4 billion, though they grew by 17.2 per cent year-on-year. On the import side, India imported USD 9.5 billion worth of goods from China in June, a 2.5 per cent increase from June 2024. The trade data for June 2025 show signs of a continued structural transformation in India's export profile. High-import-intensity sectors, such as electronics, are gaining ground, while traditional labour-intensive sectors remain flat or show a declining trend.
