ICE cotton weakens on favourable Texas weather, sluggish export sales
ICE's most active December 2025 contract settled at 68.46 cents per pound (0.453 kg), down 0.17 cent. The contract lost 86 points this week. Other contracts closed between 11 and 111 points lower. Weekly losses ranged from 15 to 186 points. There will be no trading on Friday in ICE cotton due to the holiday.
ICE cotton futures fell on Thursday due to favourable weather in West Texas, weak US export sales and a stronger dollar. The most active December 2025 contract closed at 68.46 cents per pound, down 0.17 cent. Export sales dropped 13 per cent week-on-week. Light trading activity was observed ahead of the US holiday. Cotton prices remained subdued amid bearish macroeconomic and weather-related factors.
The US dollar strengthened, making US cotton less competitive globally. This followed a strong US jobs report. June non-farm payrolls rose by 147,000, surpassing expectations of 110,000. May's payrolls were revised up to 144,000 from 139,000.
Trading volume was light at 25,989 contracts on Thursday, nearly matching Wednesday's volume of 25,879 contracts. The weekly average volume stood at 34,280 contracts per day. The lower activity was attributed to the upcoming three-day weekend in the US. As of July 2, certified ICE cotton stocks stood at 40,324 bales, slightly down from 40,488 bales the previous trading day.
US cotton export sales totalled 23,700 bales for the week ending June 26. This was 13 per cent lower than the previous week and 66 per cent below the four-week average.
Favourable rainfall in the West Texas High Plains (Llano Estacado) has raised expectations for improved crop conditions, adding pressure to prices.
A market analyst described the day's trading as light, with no major catalysts to drive a sharp move in either direction. Despite some positive signals from the grain market, cotton futures failed to gain support due to broader macroeconomic and fundamental pressures. With limited fresh buying and ongoing technical weakness, cotton prices may remain subdued unless there is a shift in weather or export dynamics.
The market continues to closely monitor US crop conditions, particularly in Texas, as July progresses.
Overall, the session had a subdued tone with a bearish bias, driven by favourable weather, sluggish exports, and a stronger dollar.
Vietnam's trade deal with the US is seen as mildly positive but largely anticipated, with limited immediate market impact.
ICE cotton for December 2025 settled at 68.46 cents per pound (down 0.17 cent); cash cotton at 65.81 cents (down 1.11 cents); the July 2025 contract at 65.66 cents (down 1.11 cents); the October 2025 contract at 67.06 cents (down 1.11 cents); the March 2026 contract at 69.78 cents (down 0.12 cent); and the May 2026 contract at 70.82 cents (down 0.11 cent).
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