Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira prediction, pick: Title No. 2, or a title renewed?

USA Today

11 hours ago

Topuria vacated featherweight title for shot at lightweight belt
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 317 vacant lightweight title main event between former featherweight champion Ilia Topuria and ex-lightweight champ Charles Oliveira.
Ilia Topuria UFC 317 preview
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Charles Oliveira UFC 317 preview
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Ilia Topura vs. Charles Oliveira point of interest: Pressure pit
The main event for UFC 317 features a vacant lightweight title fight between two men who are very familiar with pressure.
An offensive marauder who can Thai march forward behind a high guard, Charles Oliveira offers a plethora of problems on the feet. Aside from an excellent utilization of front teeps, the Brazilian standout also has a long, prodding jab that he likes to use to set up right hands and leg kicks off of.
When feeling in stride, it's not uncommon to see Oliveira implement some sort of 'touch-n-go' theme, as he seems to have a bit of a hardwiring for catching and pitching punches. The former lightweight kingpin also keeps a solid left hook on a hair-trigger, either deploying it as a countering check or attaching it to the end of combinations.
Once establishing his range, Oliveira is quick to find creative elbows and destructive uppercuts that often change the complexion of a fight at the drop of a dime. However, Oliveira, too, is not beyond getting knocked off course, as his shelling style has traditionally opened him up to body damage and power shots that can pierce around the guard.
Enter Ilia Topuria.
An aggressive fighter who came out of the gates as more of a bull than a matador, Ilia Topuria is developing an elite striking game before our very eyes.
Typically looking to cut off the cage, Topuria will initially display a lot of the right ideas you'd like to see from forward-moving fighters. From small feints that accompany Topuria's pressure to the tight distances he likes to keep on the feet, the Georgian fighter's style ensures high temperatures in his fights.
Although Topuria isn't the tallest or longest fighter in his division, he has a knack for punching with his opponents in order to meet them in the middle. The 28-year-old is also good about flowing into left hooks, particularly down low to the liver.
Against Josh Emmett, Topuria demonstrated the ability to focus his aggression for the better part of 25 minutes in what was a boxing masterclass opposite a devastating puncher.
Aside from solid footwork and a beautiful jab, Topuria quietly incorporated some slick shoulder rolls to protect his chin and take some power off of Emmett's shots. This tactic and the spirit of Topuria's movement, in general, also feed right into the Georgian's patent pull counters (which come with a Conor McGregor-Esque swagger in tow).
Topuria also has some underrated calf kicks in his arsenal, but he could end up shelving a lot of those attacks considering the looming takedown threat that Oliveira presents.
Ilia Topura vs. Charles Oliveira breakdown: Protect your neck
Considering each fighter's grappling bases and submission sensibilities, I'll be curious to see how they implement their strengths.
A dangerous submission grappler who grew up with jiu-jitsu, Topuria has proven to be a top-level black belt with his finishing prowess on the floor.
A demon from the front-headlock position, Topuria can seamlessly transition into his favored anaconda choke like it's second nature. Topuria is also a solid wrestler and superb scrambler – an area where his athleticism particularly shines through in the way in which he floats positions.
Offensively, Topuria can change levels with a double leg in the open if he chooses, but his background in Greco-Roman wrestling has shown glimpses of itself in the form of suplexes via the clinch.
Defensively, Topuria demonstrates solid reactions from hips that are hardwired to sprawl to head position that he utilizes to steer. However, despite Topuria being the better wrestler on paper, Oliveira is the more active and offensive of the two.
Shortly after getting outwrestled by Frankie Edgar back at UFC 162, Oliveira worked diligently to improve that portion of his grappling game. Now, it's not uncommon to see Oliveira outwrestling a decent amount of his contemporaries early and often (especially if he can get to any variation of a bodylock).
And when opponents attempt to wrestle "Do Bronx," Oliveira – despite showing improved takedown defense in recent years – is also not shy about reverting to his home of front-choke counters.
Oliveira is masterful from most front-headlock variations, displaying the acumen to shift the dynamic of a position as he unleashes interweaving submission attempts as if he's firing them off from an M-60 machine gun. And If Oliveira can find the back, he's proven to be one of the Top 10 rear-naked choke artists in UFC history with the way in which he closes the show.
Ilia Topura vs. Charles Oliveira odds
The oddsmakers and the public are heavily favoring the sitting champion, listing Topuria -500 and Oliveira +340 via FanDuel.
Ilia Topura vs. Charles Oliveira prediction, pick
Despite not disagreeing with who is favored, the betting line listed above is a bit too wide for my liking.
Aside from the fact that Oliviera is one of the sport's most proven products and accoladed finishers, "Do Bronx" offers some potent threats to Topuria from a stylistic perspective.
Although I still stand firm that southpaws will provide Topuria with the most problems, Oliveira's knees and front teeps will provide legitimate obstacles for the Georgian fighter given his style and stature.
Working out of an orthodox, boxing-centric stance, Topuria can inherently dip or slip heavy on approach despite having some stellar footwork overall. And if Topuria does get clipped and decides to go for a takedown, then he'll need to be extra careful considering that he tends to shoot with his head into his opponent's left side – which just happens to be the side where Oliveira locks up all of his front chokes from.
Still, there are arguably more crucial stylistic archetypes going against Oliveira in this matchup.
Not only does Topuria have the grappling chops to hang with Oliveira from positive positions, but the former featherweight champ also possesses the speed change-ups and bodywork that has traditionally troubled the Brazilian standing.
Couple that with Topuria's ability to adjust and make reads on the fly, and I suspect that the first 5-7 minutes of this fight could be too much for Oliveira to come back from at this stage of his career. I sincerely hope I'm wrong as this feels like a dog or pass situation from a betting perspective, but I'll officially pick Topuria to topple another one of my favorite fighters – this time in the first frame.
Prediction: Topuria inside the distance
Ilia Topura vs. Charles Oliveira start time, how to watch
As the main event, Pantoja and Kara-France are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 12:15 a.m. ET. The fight airs on pay-per-view via ESPN+.