I spent 31 years advising US on the Iran threat – it's the last gaps of a dying regime, Trump's next move is crucial

The Sun

4 hours ago

IRAN'S repressed nation should be encouraged to overthrow its barbaric regime by the US, an ex-Congress adviser said.
Calls for regime overhaul in the rogue nation have rumbled louder since a 12-day war broke out between Israel and Iran erupted.
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Donald Trump unleashed the biggest blow of the conflict last Sunday when he ordered America's military to bomb Iran's nuclear sites.
The US leader even hinted at toppling the regime as he wrote on Truth Social: "If the current Iranian regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn't there be a regime change? MIGA!".
Authorities in the US insisted ousting the Ayatollah was not one of its goals - but question marks hang over whether his cruel regime can survive.
Supreme leader Ali Khamenei has led a blood-soaked reign over Iran since 1989 following the death of his ruthless predecessor Ruhollah Khomeini.
But the chorus of voices demanding regime change in Iran has amplified after decades of its people suffering a catalogue of human rights violations.
Fears have also escalated that the wounded regime could deploy a dirty bomb in desperation after its nuclear ambitions were largely obliterated by the US and Israel.
Kenneth Katzman, who spent 31 years briefing Congress on Iran as a top Middle East Analyst, believes the US should now take little action - except incentivise life under a new regime.
Merciless Khamenei, 86, has been in hiding since Israel began a campaign to destroy his nuclear sites - and many senior figures believe his rule could be on its last legs.
Katzman told The Sun: "These are the last gasps of a dying regime.
"It's still in control nominally but I personally believe this regime is basically lost. Only the real diehards right now are behind this regime.
"That doesn't mean it's going to collapse any day now, but it will eventually. This regime is in big trouble."
Katzman, who retired in 2022 but has continued to watch Iran cut a menacing figure, said if it was still advise Congress to now "do as little as possible".
The analyst, who worked at the US Congressional Research Service, added: "There is a war fever going on now, with a lot of piling on and dredging up past incidents with Iran, past grievances.
'If it were up to me I would say to send some kind of signal that if there is a new regime, the US is willing to lift sanctions, provide humanitarian aid, welcome defectors and investment from Iran.
'Signalling that if the people can get rid of this regime they can have the same future that Syria is now experiencing, where they got rid of a dictator and have had sanctions lifted.
'That would be the tone I would take. The regime can be toppled very suddenly, although it's not toppling just yet.
'If you take it from the Iranian people's perspective, there's no prospect of getting sanctions relief, they're in a war with Israel with no air defense.
Evil Ayatollah could unleash dirty bomb, exiled prince warns
Exclusive by Katie Davis, Chief Foreign Reporter (Digital), in Paris
IRAN'S brutal regime could kill tens of millions of people by smuggling nuclear material and unleashing it on Europe, the rogue nation's exiled prince told The Sun.
Reza Pahlavi warned while the US and Israel have eliminated the "immediate threat" of its atomic ambitions, barbaric leaders could still acquire a dirty bomb.
Pahlavi, the son of Iran's last Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, warned callous Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could still attempt to utilise his warped allies in a bid to get his hands on nuclear matter.
Speaking to The Sun at an undisclosed location in Paris just hours before the ceasefire this week, he said: "Terrorism has many means of hurting big time. Nobody anticipated 9/11. It was a terrorist attack.
"What keeps people not to worry about the fact that the call of these terrorist networks of sleeper cells could smuggle in a few grams of enriched plutonium, throw it in a lake in Europe, and instantaneously kill tens of millions of people who will be radioactively attacked.
"You don't need a missile or warhead for that.
"We have at least eliminated the imminent threat of the regime. Does that mean that the regime still doesn't have the capability to acquire nuclear weapons or a dirty bomb by purchasing it from the North Koreans?
"It doesn't eliminate that, that's the entire point."
Pahlavi, whose family was forced to leave Iran after the Islamic Revolution in 1979, warned unless the Islamist regime is toppled, the threat of nuclear material being weaponised looms large.
The self-styled crown prince - who has been advocating for regime change for decades - announced on Monday he is offering to lead a transitional government to make Iran a democratic, secular country.
'The regime has now brought them into a war with the United States, although that may not continue. I think the people can only take so much.'
Last week the US bombed nuclear sites in Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan after Iran's devastating missile exchange with Israel.
President Donald Trump has since announced a precarious ceasefire, but the world continues to nervously await what happens next.
While Iran is currently in a ceasefire with Israel, fears continue to grow as to how long this will last.
Trump was this week hailed a 'daddy' by Nato chief Mark Rutte at a landmark meeting in the Netherlands.
Iran also finally admitted the US strikes had left their nuclear facilities 'badly damaged'.
But it came after Trump made the astonishing claim on Tuesday that Israel and Iran 'don't know what the f*** they're doing' following doubts the agreement had been kept.
Katzman believes Iran is very far away from developing a nuclear weapon.
And even if it did get one, it would be extremely difficult for it to ever threaten a launch given US and Israeli intelligence.
He added: 'I think US intelligence is good enough to detect if they were actually going to try to use a nuclear weapon.
'You need a lot of steps to do that. It's not that easy to conceal, especially with the Mossad agents crawling all over the place as they are right now.
'There are radioactivity detectors. There's a lot of intelligence gathering going on.
'So I don't think it would be that easy for them to just go from where they are now with these destroyed facilities to suddenly producing a nuclear weapon.
'I could be wrong, but I don't think it's that easy.'
Asked how the Iranian people could conceivably overthrow the regime, Katzman said he doesn't expect anything to happen soon.
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He believes the conflict must settle first.
Katzman added: 'It can be toppled. Is it close to being toppled? No, but it can be.
'Anything can really spark it. We had a partial prison break at Evin Prison.
'You can get incidents. I hear the IRGC is already cracking down by stopping every car that goes by to see if there are Mossad agents in there.
'They're sort of doubling down on their strategy in a way. That can work for a while, but the population is pretty fed up.
'Obviously the population has to get through this crisis first and then it can reassess what to do about the regime.
'So it's not going to do anything right now while the conflict is going on, but ultimately though, there's going to be a reckoning.'
On Wednesday Nato leaders pledged to increase their annual defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP by 2035.
Trump also said he no longer believes the organisation is a 'rip-off'.