NHL contract grades: Brock Boeser is worth betting on for the Canucks

New York Times

5 days ago

Winger Brock Boeser signs a seven-year contract with a $7.25 million AAV with the Canucks.
Many assumed that the door was closed on Boeser returning to Vancouver after the way the last several months had unfolded. Canucks management was unable to secure an extension with him ahead of the trade deadline. Patrik Allvin controversially pointed to the lack of trade interest in him at the deadline as justification for not selling him to a contender. Boeser himself told Sportsnet's Iain MacIntyre near the end of the season that it was 'unlikely' that he was going to stay with the Canucks.
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However, it's been difficult for teams to land top-six forwards, and it's clear Vancouver upped its previous offers to circle back on Boeser.
The $7.25 million cap hit on Boeser's contract is quite reasonable, and arguably lower than expected. AFP Analytics had projected that he could command an AAV in the $8.5 million range on a six-year deal. Boeser has scored 204 goals in 554 career games, which translates to a 30 goals per 82 games pace. The 28-year-old has some limitations: He's a slow skater, doesn't drive play, and his even-strength point production rate has been closer to second-line range than first-line caliber. However, the Canucks desperately needed scoring, and they could have done a lot worse than re-upping Boeser to address that need.
Boeser's seven-year deal will take him through his age-35 season. That seven-year term is risky considering his lack of foot speed, but that's the tradeoff for getting a more favorable cap hit. Boeser also isn't doomed to age poorly solely based on his below-average speed; just look at Tyler Toffoli. Toffoli is a similarly slow, complementary top-six winger to Boeser, whose goal scoring is based on his IQ and ability to get open in the slot. Toffoli has aged gracefully through his early 30s, as he just scored 30 goals in his age-32 season with the Sharks.
I'd argue the biggest risk for the Canucks is whether they can find the right playmaking center to unlock the most productive version of Boeser at five-on-five. Boeser's best performance, including his 40-goal campaign in 2023-24, was when he was playing on a line with J.T. Miller. The two had terrific chemistry — Miller was an elite passer down low, and Boeser was a master at finding open ice to bury those setups. Miller is, of course, gone now.
Boeser only picked up nine goals and 17 points in 31 games following the Miller trade, which included just seven five-on-five points. He wasn't quite able to mesh with Filip Chytil or the struggling Elias Pettersson. Boeser is a complementary scorer rather than a line driver, so finding the proper playmaker to mesh with him is a question mark. This has to be a big-picture consideration for the Canucks, as Jake DeBrusk and Evander Kane are also in a similar situation, being talented goal scorers who are more passengers than drivers.
Overall, however, this contract was a bet worth making for a Canucks team that is in win-now mode.
Contract grade: B