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Rise At Dawn primed to spring upset in Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup

Rise At Dawn primed to spring upset in Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup

News.com.au30-05-2025
Kingsford Smith Cup contender Rise At Dawn is the Hayes brothers' 'ugly duckling' who has done what superstar stablemate Mr Brightside couldn't.
Will Hayes, who trains alongside his brothers Ben and JD, pointed out that Rise At Dawn won the Listed The Elms Handicap (1400m) at Flemington in February first-up in his preparation, an achievement that even the great Mr Brightside couldn't pull off in 2022.
'By no means is this an easy race,' he said about the Group 1 $1m Kingsford Smith, which offers a golden ticket to the Stradbroke Handicap for the winner.
'He's certainly going to be right there to the finish because he's a horse with tremendous high-cruising speed and he does get pretty quick to the corner.
'I remember what he did first-up in The Elms in the autumn. He goes pretty good first-up so we're very excited for the weekend.
'Mr Brightside actually kicked off one preparation in The Elms and wasn't able to do it so he's certainly in pretty good company.'
Four-year-old Rise At Dawn is a $17 chance for the Kingsford Smith Cup, well behind favourite Joliestar ($2.90), Giga Kick ($5), Benedetta ($7.50) and Bosustow ($8.50) in the market.
The gelding that co-trainer Ben Hayes last month described as an 'ugly duckling, but he's all heart' was initially slated to run in last weekend's Group 3 BRC Sprint (1350m) but a bad barrier draw led to his scratching.
'We decided to bide our time and I'm glad we did because we've come up with a very good barrier (one) in what looks to be a competitive race,' Will Hayes said.
'It's a weight-for-age path as well so if we win, it doesn't change our weight in the Stradbroke (52.5kg).'
Asked about the 'ugly duckling' reference, Will said: 'He's certainly not a picture by any means.
'It's a bit like there's no such thing as an ugly rich bloke and there's no such thing as an ugly fast horse.
'He's by Almanzor and he keeps rising to every occasion.'
A Kingsford Smith Cup victory would not only secure a spot in the Stradbroke, but the $600,000 winner's cheque would push Rise At Dawn's prizemoney well beyond the $1m mark.
'I think you can make a case for probably eight horses in the race,' Hayes said.
'They'll more than likely be having to give us a decent start but we're meeting them all at set weights so it's going to be a very good barometer as we head towards the Stradbroke.'
Rise At Dawn flopped in the All-Star Mile (1600m) at Flemington in the autumn before his last start, an impressive fourth in the $4m Group 1 Doncaster Mile, which was won by last year's Stradbroke Handicap champion Stefi Magnetica on April 5.
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Competition is good for consumers, so I expect the product offering to improve and strong competition to persist. Global EV penetration looks almost certain to continue to grow: the genie is well and truly out of the bottle, and it's a pretty cool genie with more torque and less moving parts." What are the key challenges and opportunities you foresee in the lithium market over the next 12 months? SP: "We could have a scramble for lithium supply if the Chinese market passes the tipping point. Car purchases are subject to the network effect where people tend to follow their neighbours. China is currently the only market that matters and they're at 50% EV penetration. "Chariot is well setup after this downturn. We have reacquired the Horizon property with a 10.2Mt LCE resource and taken a 66.667% stake in a magnificent portfolio of spodumene bearing projects in Nigeria in the most counter cyclical way possible." 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"Companies that come out with massive production targets above 20,000tpa of new material without the balance sheet to support it or are NPV chasing to try and look good in the market will struggle to gain investor interest. Investors can see the demand piece for lithium remaining intact with demand set to hit near 3 million tonnes by 2030, however it's capital discipline and realistic scalable projects that will win out long term." JC: "I feel a little relieved that Delta isn't trying to navigate this price trough as a producer. Our challenge at Delta is to position our business and manage capital effectively through the downturn, keep our projects ticking along and be ready to come out of the blocks when real improvement shows up."

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