How Will Altria Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?

Forbes

6 days ago

CHONGQING, CHINA - JULY 28: In this photo illustration, a person holds a smartphone displaying the ... More logo of Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO), one of the largest tobacco and nicotine product manufacturers in the United States, with a colorful mosaic background featuring the company's brand identity, on July 28, 2025 in Chongqing, China. (Photo illustration by)
Altria (NYSE:MO) is set to announce its earnings on Wednesday, July 30, 2025. For traders focused on events, gaining insight into historical stock performance during earnings periods can offer a significant advantage, although the actual outcomes versus consensus estimates will primarily influence market reactions.
In the past five years, Altria's stock has delivered a positive one-day return in 53% of the cases following earnings announcements. When the returns were positive, the median one-day increase was 1.9%, with the highest one-day increase reaching 7.8%.
Two key strategies to consider include:
Analysts project that Altria will report earnings of $1.38 per share on revenues of $5.19 billion. This is in comparison to the same quarter last year, during which Altria reported earnings of $1.31 per share on revenue of $5.28 billion.
From a fundamental standpoint, Altria has a current market capitalization of $101 billion. In the past twelve months, the company generated $20 billion in revenue, with $12 billion in operating profits and a net income of $10 billion, indicating robust operational profitability.
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Altria's Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Additional information regarding observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is included along with the statistics in the table below.
MO 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky approach (although it may not be beneficial if the correlation is weak) is to grasp the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify the pair with the highest correlation, and execute the suitable trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader can adopt a "long" position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is favorable. Below is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
MO Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Occasionally, the performance of peers can impact post-earnings stock reactions. In fact, the pricing might start prior to the earnings announcement. Below is some historical data comparing the past post-earnings performance of Altria stock with the performance of peers that reported earnings just before Altria. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also reflect post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
MO Correlation With Peer Earnings
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