UK heat plume to skirt Wales as Met Office issues 'thunder and rain' warnings
Yellow alerts for 'heavy, thundery rain' have been issued by the Met Office this morning for much of England on Friday and Saturday, July 18-19. This comes as balmy conditions are forecasted in eastern, southern and central England as hot and humid air moves in across the country.
Friday, July 18, is expected to be the peak of this mini hot spell. Some of this heat might just reach eastern areas of Wales - the Met Office is predicting highs of 23C in Wrexham, 3C above the July average, with a chance of 25C in places.
The North Wales coast should see temperatures at or just above the July average. However western coastal areas of Anglesey and Gwynedd are expected to be cooler.
A slight temperature dip on Saturday, July 18, will yield smaller differences in the east-west spread, with many places in North Wales close to the seasonal average. South Wales is forecasted to retain the heat for a little longer, but feeling cooler in forecasted rain.
Thunderstorms are set to be the price paid for warmer air. A Met Office warning for Humberside on Friday afternoon (12pm-8pm) is followed by a wider alert for England, excluding western areas (9pm on Friday until 6pm on Saturday).
Met Office maps show two spells of heavy rain brushing Flintshire and Wrexham on Saturday, with scattered showers elsewhere in the region, some possibly heavy. The Met Office said the risk of 'thunder and hail' can't be excluded. Join the North Wales Live Whatsapp community now
Bands of rain and showers are expected to continue into next week. Various weather models show this pattern repeating for the rest of July.
In its weekend forecast for Wales, the Met Office summed it up as "unsettled", adding: "Showers may be heavy and blustery at times, carrying the risk of thunder and hail. Warm and humid in brighter periods, but temperatures suppressed under any persistent rain.'
Temperature wise, July-average temperatures are expected to remain in place into next week, according to the Met Office. Some weather models predict colder conditions, with a brief flurry of warmer weather on Friday, July 25.
Tuesday's rain (July 15) on St Swithen's Day is unlikely to usher in 40 day of wet weather, as the old superstition would have us believe. But it's not looking too good for the coming weeks, with low pressure dominating. Sign up for the North Wales Live newsletter sent twice daily to your inbox
In its longer-term forecast for the UK, from July 21-30, the Met Office expects a north-south divide to remain in place. 'Overall a rather more changeable pattern of weather through this period, compared to much of the summer thus far,' said the forecaster.
'The first couple of days will likely be dominated by low pressure leading to particularly unsettled weather, with heavy rain and/or thunderstorms in some areas. Thereafter, a general westerly regime looks to become established, with occasional weather systems moving in from the Atlantic.
'This means further rain or showers and breezy conditions at times, especially in the northwest. This will be interspersed with some drier, sunnier periods. Temperatures are expected to average out above normal and whilst brief hotter and humid days are possible. This broad pattern is likely to continue through to the end of July.'
Neither does the forecaster expect much change in the first week of August, though things may improve later on. 'The rather changeable pattern will likely continue through early August with spells of rain or showers mixed in with some drier, brighter days,' said the Met Office.
'Towards mid-August, there are tentative signs that high pressure may become rather more dominant, which could bring more in the way dry, settled weather more widely.
'Temperatures will likely continue to be above average overall, with the possibility of very warm or hot spells developing later in the period, especially further south and east.'
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